Bills Elimination Game — WR

Twenty eight WRs were taken in the 2022 Draft. Thirty-two WRs in the 2023 Draft. Thirty-five WRs last year! Are we about to see 35 reeivers taken in the 2025 NFL Draft?

Pick the Under for April 24-26, 2025, although I do see 27-32 wide receivers getting drafted, with Preferred Free Agency good for another 20-25 of them. Yes, there are fast pass catchers in the draft; in fact, 27 receivers have a listed forty time below 4.4, the largest number in the McBeane era. Nineteen of the 32 NFL teams list WR as a top-4 need, but only three (Bengals, Bucs, Texans) have it identified as their #1 need as of this writing.

I always check to see how many Top-100 players the Bills scout, especially since the Bills have WR listed third on their shopping list at NFL.com. There are 32 draftable WRs with a Bills ScoutScore of 6 or more, and that’s a pretty good list to start with.

However.

Because it’s too many to capture in a screen grab, and because the Bills are looking for a field-stretcher, I’ll eliminate those receivers slower than 4.5. This means some podcast darlings aren’t getting a chance here, but hey — it’s an elimination game. Adios to Jack Bech (who didn’t run the forty at the combine and has a 4.55 posted), Jaylin Noel, Nick Nash, Traeshon Holden, Antwane Wells Jr., Justus Ross-Simmons, Pat Bryant, Theo Wease, Jimmy Horn Jr., Ricky White, Jerjuan Newton, LaJohntay Wester, Beaux Collins, Efton Chism III, and Jackson Meeks. If the Bills attend their Pro Day and some of these players run fast, good for them. The 3-year, $36M signing of Josh Palmer gets you a separator, so now more than ever, you’re looking for more of a niche field-stretching receiver, with sub-4.5 speed and a high YPC.

The receiver I’m saddest to say goodbye to is Justus Ross-Simmons, a Rochester, NY native who played at East High School, located 10 minutes from the Bills’ training camp. Ross-Simmons impressed a Bills scout with a 4-catch, 88-yard, 2-TD overtime home win against VaTech after not previously ever having a target from Kyle McCord. He’s a great guess for a quality PFA at the very least. His posted forty time is 4.53, and his Pro Day is 3/17.

Look at the School column. Note the level of competition Beane is seeking. You have 10 SEC receivers, 3 Big 10, and 3 ACC schools, with only one WR from the Big 12, Jayden Higgins. The next column to the right is Age at the time of the draft. Arian Smith and Elijhah Badger are the oldest, while Elic Ayomanor, Matthew Golden, Luther Burden, and Isaiah Bond are the youngest. Where did these WRs play on their respective teams? Six were primarily slot receivers, with all but 2 of the others playing the outside ‘X’ role, and most are from a Pro Spread or Multiple offensive scheme. Next column: The best two interviews I listened to are Tre Harris, an ‘X’ receiver, and Tez Johnson, a 5-9, 154-lb. waterbug slot and punt returner who makes Andy Isabella (5-9, 188, 4.31) and K.J. Hamler (5-9, 178, 4.36) look bigger and faster. I was in love with Tez until I realized I could end up with three of the same kind of guy. Let’s get rid of the older and too-light players, plus players we might be able to sign in PFA (KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Elijhah Badger, Samuel Brown, Dominic Lovett, and Arian Smith). It’s still an impressive list:

The chart shows the Bills have flexibility in picking their WR almost anywhere in the draft. In RD1, the trio of Luther Burden (the only college ‘X’ receiver in the top 3, also the best weight-speed combo, also the most catches against AP-ranked teams), plus slot receivers Emeka Egbuka (the most-scouted WR, and he adds KR experience), and Matthew Golden (perhaps the highest ceiling, and the fastest of the trio — think of a faster Stefon, but with 689 yards of KR experience). Any of these guys could play on the boundary. Of these, I loved Luther Burden’s interview the best, but Golden’s and Egbuka’s were A+++.

In RD2, Beane might trade up a bit using a RD4 to snare Elic Ayomanor (6-2 206 4.38, Vertical: 38.5”, 82nd%ile, younger and a little faster than Harris), or take Tre Harris (6-1, 205, 4.48, Vertical: 38.5”, 82nd%ile, better YAC than Higgins), both of whom played the ‘X’ role. Beane didn’t sniff around Iowa State the last several years, but Jayden Higgins (Vertical: 39″) changed all that. Jayden’s the fastest riser among the Day-2 pass-catchers. Higgins may be there for the Bills’ RD2#62, but he may not. Listen to his interview and you’ll feel the potential vibe with the WR room. Harris’s interview is almost as impressive, and both got my top grade.

PFF’s top two receivers by PFF grade, Harris and Higgins, are being compared a lot, but again, keep in mind the type of player Brandon Beane is seeking –vertical threat, YAC, and consistency. Those Yards After Catch, the Yards Per Reception, and Yards Per Route Run is where Tre Harris shines. Consistency and size is where Jayden Higgins makes points. Tre Harris had the highest YPC average (min. 10 catches) vs AP-ranked teams at 18.3 YPC, and was 18.3 YPC in 2023, too. Harris went off on Kentucky for 11-176-16.0-1 TD –but he fumbled. In a Bills-scouted game vs Iowa in 2024, Higgins had a standout performance: 8 catches for 95 yards and a TD –second only to my #69-ranked player, Jaylin Noel. Against Iowa in 2023, the Bills scouts had seen Higgins lead all receivers with a 8-95-11.9-1 TD stat line.

Can the Bills wait later and still get a difference-maker? The Bills’ Round 4b pick may be too late to get tall slot Dont’e Thornton (6-5, 214, 4.26) the way he’s climbing. He stood out at the Shrine Bowl at 6-foot-4, 214, 4.52 and has demonstrated versatility playing both the slot and X receiver positions. Known for his speed and dynamic athletic ability, Thornton led the nation in receptions of 50-plus yards with six, and topped the FBS in average yards per catch at 25.88. A field-stretcher is needed, and the the waterbug types can’t block downfield as well as Thornton. This season, Dont’e led the Volunteers with 661 receiving yards, 25.42 per catch, boasting significant performances like his 118-yard, two-TD game against Vanderbilt, scouted by the Bills. That included a personal-best 86-yard touchdown. Despite a November 2024 upper body injury, Dont’e has one of the best Average Depth of Target (aDOT) and Yards After Catch (YAC) marks in the draft class. If Beane wants to load up on the defense in RD1-2, I’m sure he has Dont’e Thornton in mind for a fourth-rounder.

TCU’s Savion Williams (6-4 222 4.43) is more bulked up than Thornton, and he was used as an ‘X’ receiver more. Pronounced “SAY-vee-on,” his numbers are inflated a tad because of TCU’s Air Raid offense. Savion’s known for winning 50/50 balls –sound like anyone you know? In 2023, Savion’s overall performance placed him second to Marvin Harrison in Total Points per Route Run against Top-10 Defenses. Eric Galko praised Williams’ elite ball skills, finishing ability, and downfield burst, comparing him to NFL talents like the Bills’ own Keon Coleman. That would be hard to defend. In a 2024 scouted game, Williams put up 11-85 (7.7) 1 TD against Stanford, diverting defensive attention from teammate Jack Bech, 6-139 (23.2) 1TD. In the same game, Bills scouts got to see Elic Ayomanor, too (7-102 (14.6) 0 TD). Attending games where scouts could see more than one player at the same position was done more this year than previous years.

Xavier Restrepo (5-9 209 4.45) was praised by Coach Cristobal as the “most productive wide receiver in camp” last spring. Beane will hear about Xavier’s relentless approach to practice, which is exemplary, and mirrors the Bills’ philosophy. In 2024, Restrepo caught 7 of 8 targets for 112 yards and a TD in his first scouted game, showcasing his separation, elusiveness, and reliability, and then totaled 163 yards on 7 receptions (23.3 ypr) in another scouted game, a come-from-behind, 39-38 thriller. He then put up 9-148 (16.4) 1 TD in a third scouted game. Restrepo’s short crosser in a scouted game looks familiar, giving me echoes of Khalil Shakir. Restrepo gets open, and stays open for his quarterback. He’s midround for me: He and Jamaal Pritchett tied for the shortest arms at the Senior Bowl, his 4.52 forty won’t set the Combine afire, plus you, he, and and I have the same number of catches this year vs AP-ranked teams. He’s Miami’s career leader in receptions and yards, though –more than Michael Irvin, Reggie Wayne, or Andre Johnson. The work ethic is a mesh, but I’d need a RD3 to appear to take him. Is he too much like Shakir?

Chimere Dike (“CHIM-ray DEE-kay”), 6-1, 196, 4.28, is the best downfield blocker of all of these guys. He might also be the best value, and that strikes harmonics in Big Baller’s brain. He’s famous for his name’s frequent mispronunciation and his impressive athletic abilities, leading to an invitation from the Hula Bowl all the way up to the Senior Bowl. Over a notable four-year college career at Wisconsin and Florida, Dike started 54 games. At Florida, he caught 42 passes for 783 yards, maintaining a 66% catch rate and an impressive 18.6 yards per catch. Chimere has body control, fluidity, and quickness, and thrives as a slot receiver where I think he’d pose the most danger to defenses (two-way go, curls, slants, slant-and-go). A versatile athlete, Dike excelled in four sports in high school—football, baseball, basketball, and track—where he clocked a personal record of 10.85 seconds in the 100-meter dash. I think he’d be gone by the RD6 picks; Chimere rivaled Higgins and Harris in performances vs AP-ranked teams. Our newest receiver, Josh Palmer, would be an effective teacher for him.

Luther Burden (5-11, 206, 4.36) was the top-ranked WR in this draft for a minute. After all, he led all P5 WRs in Yards after the Catch (340), Receiving yards after contact (146), Missed Tackles Forced (14), and Yards Per Route Run (5.27). The First-Team All-SEC wideout is a natural athlete who tracks the ball well in the air. He’s a former basketball player whose strength, length, athleticism, and timing allows him to win 50-50 balls (nice to have Keon on the other side). You are struck by how sudden his cuts are, and how those dekes don’t slow him down one iota. In his scouted game in 2023 vs Tennessee, though, Burden had an underwhelming 4-26-(6.5)-1TD stat line. Same in 2024 against Auburn, then 6-49 (8.2) in front of Terrence Gray, and 7-82-(11.7) against Texas A&M. Burden was a burden in the scouted game against Boston College, 6 for 117 yards (11.7) and 1 TD.

Editor’s babble: While I pray nightly that Kenneth Grant falls to the Bills at #30, this WR group does have some interesting prospects likely to go in the first round. Many thanks to Dean Kindig for his tireless work getting us ready for the NFL Draft. You can also find Dean on Xwitter @TCBILLS_Astro.