Fedora Forecast: Saints at Bills

Sunday, September 28, 1 p.m. ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: 77 and sunny. Congratulations to all in WNY for living through the most glorious September us baby boomers have ever seen.

Latest Line: Bills -15, over/under 48.5

Last week: It was close, but the Bills did not cover in their 31-21 victory over Miami. The over was successful. The Forecast is 3-0 outright, 2-1 vs the spread, and 2-1 on the over under.

Did anybody else watch the retro tribute to the NFL Today on CBS last week? The wardrobes and hairpieces from 50 years ago were a hoot, but I like that they included the old Jimmy the Greek segment that inspired the Fedora Forecast. I can only imagine Jimmy’s take on the Draft Kings world we live in now. They did not let the Greek talk point spreads in 1975, so mismatches were never featured.

Not even the mid 60s nor the 90s Bills were favored every week, so this season the primary handicapping challenge is finding the games where Buffalo won’t cover the point spread. The entertainment challenge is finding other things to highlight when all the checkmarks are in one column. Any Given Sunday is a general rule, but many a great team has avoided that possibility.

How about the Saints/Bills this week?

The Breakdown:

QB:

Spencer Rattler was once considered the top QB prospect in the land, but then again, so was Matt Barkley. I like his skill set, but he’s raw. He has 20 more passing attempts than Josh through 3 games and will likely have more attempts than Josh this week. As for Josh Allen; no NFL QB has ever posted a 40 TD pass/10 rushing TD season. The rushing TDs are a near lock; will anyone slow down the Bills rushing attack enough to facilitate that many passing TDs? In any event, huge advantage Bills.

Run game weapons:

Alvin Kamara will hit 7000 rushing yards this week if he posts a modest 35, but it has always been his receiving contributions that made him elite. I think Joe Brady already got the note; throttle back on running back by committee and let James Cook. Within the theme of sound load management, wouldn’t a big string of 100-yard games and a run at the rushing title be fun? Spencer Rattler is mobile, but at 6 feet, 211 pounds, nowhere near the threat of Josh Allen. Advantage Bills.

Pass Game Weapons:

Safe to say that Chris Olave is hampered by the Saints QB situation. Kamara is an historically good pass catching RB. Juwan Johnson is a guy. I am waiting patiently to see how the Bills passing game looks when a team finally makes a serious attempt to contain James Cook, but we can already observe that Dalton Kincaid is trending towards being the most consistent threat in the passing game. Khalil Shakir has been very quiet so far; I am rooting for him to be “the guy” this week. Advantage Bills, but one of the smaller ones.

Offensive Line:

Good news here for Saints fans, this should be an area of strength. All five starters are homegrown, I hope my buddy Dean Kindig answers in the comments but is there a higher drafted OL in the NFL right now than #9, #14, #19, #24, and #48 overall, in separate draft years? I am looking forward to watching that unit, as the Saints don’t cross our radar much since Drew Brees retired. At some point we can start comparing the 2025 Bills OL to the AFL Champs, the Electric Company, and the Super Bowl Era units. I wouldn’t mind if the Bills are cautious with Spencer Brown and Chase Lundt gets his first NFL Start. Advantage Bills.

Run Defense:

The Saints contained Christian McCaffrey pretty well in the 49ers game; unfortunately making Mac Jones look like an All-Star while doing so. It’s going to take the Bills a few more weeks to recover from the Ravens stats to get a better sense of where Buffalo belongs in the rankings of this category. Even.

Pass defense:

The Jets game skewed the Bills pass defense as much towards the positive as the Ravens shaded the run defense. There might not be a QB to test that until Patrick Mahomes comes to town in November. Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau will make it easy on the secondary this week. Advantage Bills.

Special Teams:

The Saints gave up a 95-yard punt return TD last week, and their new Kicker Blake Grupe has missed his attempts beyond 36 yards, so it’s not going well down on the bayou. Brandon Codrington has been good but not great so far, maybe he is due. New punter took his hit like an Aussie Rules champ. Advantage Bills.

Coaching:

Kellen Moore is sporting a nice new Eagles Super bowl ring but needs to unearth a QB to turn the Saints franchise around. Given the lofty expectations, it will require 15-16 wins for Sean McDermott to win his first Coach of the Year honors …that’s not off the table. Advantage Bills.

Intangibles:

The Saints lead the all-time series 7-5, including 4-0 the last four meetings in Orchard Park. Combined score 120-42. Permission granted to keep the foot on the gas and shoot for 40+ points.

The Forecast:

One better than the reverse score from 2017.

Bills 48 Saints 10

Then sit back and enjoy the Ravens and Chiefs slugging it out.

The Pregame Plan:

Food:

Looks like the Cajun Spice might not be needed to warm up tomorrow, but I am craving Jambalaya.

Beer:

I hope this one is available nationwide; Dogfish Head’s 30 Minute IPA is the best low carb low cal beer I have ever tasted. Good idea if you want to be awake and alert for the 4:25 game.

Music:

Time to start reminiscing about some of the great concerts in Stadium history. From the setlist of The Band. 7/6/74:

1. Across The Great Divide….15 points plus in this case.
2. Up On Cripple Creek…for a Bills fan I know in Lake Charles.
3. The Shape I’m In …for the Saints fans too young to remember the “aints.”
4. The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down …a little payback for the old timers.

I missed an opportunity to back the underdog in last week’s divisional matchup; I don’t foresee any such opportunity this week. Enjoy.

Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his Fedora Forecast series. I look forward to these every week. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.