Analysis, AstroNotes

How Bills Beat The Chiefs

I was curious if the Bills had a chance against the current Super Bowl Champion KC Chiefs. I used NFL Football Stats on to see how Buffalo measures up.

On Offense

First Qtr Points—In the last 3 games, KC has been off to a slow start, 4.3 pts in the first quarter. Bills have averaged 5.6 in 2020. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Second Qtr Points —-In the last 3 games, Bills have outpointed the Chiefs in the second quarter, 11.7 to 9.0. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Third Qtr. Points—In the last 3 games, Buffalo [3rd highest] has outpointed the Chiefs 9.0 to 1.0. BIG ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Fourth Qtr. Points—In the last 3 games, Buffalo [4th highest] has outpointed the Chiefs 10.3 to 5.7. ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Bills’ Away 1st Downs Per Game in 2020 is greater than the Chiefs’ Home 1st Downs Per Game, 25.8 to 23.0. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Time of Possession—Bills’ average TOP was 31:00 this year. Chiefs’ is 30:11. TIE.

Rushing Yards —Chiefs have generated 97 yards rushing per game over their last 3 games. Buffalo this year has 102.8 ypg rushing. Expect the Chiefs to try to run it. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE CHIEFS.

Rush Yards Per Attempt-–In the last 3 games, Chiefs average 4.7 yards per attempt, while Bills have averaged only 3.3. Expect the Chiefs to try to run it. BIG ADVANTAGE CHIEFS.

Team Rushing Yards After Contact Per Attempt, Season— Bills 2.3, Chiefs 1.8. Yeldon’s YAC per Attempt is the most for the Bills. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Pass Completions Per Game—In the last 3 games, Chiefs averaged 24.7 pass completions per game, the Bills 24.3 TIE.

Yards per Pass Attempt—Bills have had the 5th-most Yards per Pass Attempt over the last 3 games at 7.9 YPA. Chiefs are 9th at 7.0 YPA. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Sacked Percentage—Chiefs haven’t been sacked as much: 1.71% in the last 3 games [2nd in the NFL] to the Bills’ 4.35% [8th]. Josh has to get that ball out in 3 seconds. ADVANTAGE CHIEFS.

Passing First Downs per Game over the last 3 games—Bills 16.3 to KC’s 14.3 , Buffalo has been demonstrating ball control against some stiff defenses. ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Average Team Passer Rating—Bills were 3rd and Chiefs were 4th in Average Team Passer Rating in 2020, but not so much in the last 3 games. Buffalo is tied for 6th with TB at 105.8, KC is 19th with 88.9. BIG ADVANTAGE BILLS.

QB Broken Tackles— Josh Allen 19, Pat Mahomes 4. BIG ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Passing Yards Percentage—Bills are 80.78% in Passing Yards Percentage, 2nd in the NFL to PGH. KC is 7th with 73.57% ADVANTAGE BILLS.

On Special Teams

Punts Per Play—Bills have the NFL’s fewest punts per play, 0.03, and KC has the third-fewest at 0.05. Don’t expect to see very many punts. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Net Punt Yards—Bills are 161.0, KC is second worst at 82.3. If this becomes a field-position battle (unlikely), Buffalo can flip the script. BIG ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Bills Touchback Percentage is 84.21% , KC’s is 73.33%. On kickoffs, Andre Roberts is going to have his opportunities for a return or two. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

FG Conversion—KC wins FG Conversion battle, 80.00% to the Bills’ third-worst 60.00%. Bills need to get into the end zone rather than leave points on the field for Bass. BIG ADVANTAGE CHIEFS.

On Defense

Opponent Points per Game—In last 3 games, KC allowed 23.0 PPG while Bills allowed 17.7. They’ve shut down some serious run games of late, and allowed zero touchdowns by Lamar Jackson. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) –Bills led the league over the last 3 games, with 36.36% of opponent attempts resulting in a TD. KC has been second-worst, with 80.00% of opponent attempts resulting in a TD. This is the biggest advantage I see for Buffalo. HUGE ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Opponent Defensive Touchdowns per Game. Both teams have allowed 0.0 Opponent Defensive Touchdowns per Game. No more Pick-Sixes for Buffalo? TIE

Opp 1st Quarter Points/Game Allowed over last 3 games —Bills, 2.0 vs 3.3
Opp 2nd Quarter Points/Game Allowed over last 3 games —Bills, 4.3 vs 8.0
Opp 3rd Quarter Points/Game Allowed over last 3 games —Bills, 2.3 to 4.7
Opp 4th Quarter Points/Game Allowed over last 3 games —KC, 7.0 to 9.0

Opponent Yards Per Game Allowed—KC, 363.7 to Bills’ 422.0 Bills will need to bend but not break, maximizing their advantage in the red zone. ADVANTAGE CHIEFS.

Opponent Rushing First Downs per Game—KC allows 7.3, Bills 8.7. Bills shut down some powerful running games of late, though. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE CHIEFS.

Opponent Yards Per Rush Attempt—KC, 4.2 to 4.7. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE CHIEFS.

Opponent Completion Percentage—KC allows opposing quarterbacks a 69.90% completion rate. The Bills allowed 58.45% over the last 3 games. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Turnover Margin Per Game —Bills +1.0, KC -0.3 . ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Penalty Yards Assessed Per Game—Bills are lowest in NFL at 11.3 yards average; KC is 26th at 55.0. Don’t be dumb, don’t be dirty. HUGE ADVANTAGE BILLS.

Editor’s babble: Dean Kindig is the best at digging through the numbers and we thank him for his tremendous contributions to our blog. You can find Dean on Twitter @TCBILLS_Astro. is sponsored by 26 Shirts

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1 thought on “How Bills Beat The Chiefs”

  1. Hi I have been a Bills fan for well over 50 years and I wrote this for us all. Bills Fever The coaches are ready, they know what to do. If you don’t root for the Bills then shame on you. Load up your car and never say no, down in Orchard Park N.Y. we are talking proud Buffalo. The Bills Mafia is ready, the crowd will roar. Our teams on the field ready to score. Punish the Pats, Dround the Dolphins, and Crash the Jets. Allen to Diggs is no joke, put another 6 points on the tote. We win the division and that’s no joke. Beginning the playoffs is a great stroke. Beating the Colts in the first round. Good-by Frank Reich left on the ground. The Ravens come to town with a chip so bad, but when they leave they are very sad. Onto the Chiefs they play so hard, but with a defense like ours they are totally disbarred. On to the Super Bowl, Brady or Rogers we don’t cars, we will kick their butt with Allen King of the air. As the gun sounds and the last second ends the wagons are circled they all say o-no, the Lombardi is off to Buffalo. The Bills are finally #1 way to go, big party downtown, home sweet home Buffalo.

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