Sunday, January 11 at 1 p.m. ET.
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
Weather: mid 60s, clouds to sun
Latest line: Bills+1.5, over/under 51.5
Last week: A Sweep! Won outright (12-5), won vs the spread (8-9), won the over/under (11-6)
The only season that matters to us card carrying members of the “Just One Before I Die” club starts TODAY. Zero and zero. No bogeyman. One and done. Survive and advance. The Bills don’t have to win three road games this week. Just one. Can Buffalo end Jacksonville’s winning streak and move on to the quarterfinals?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Two very different paths intersect in this playoff matchup. College freshman Trevor Lawrence won a National Championship at Clemson. College freshman Josh Allen was at Reedley College hoping to draw any D1 attention. In the NFL, Allen rose to the top tier of QBs quickly, while Lawrence is finally playing like he deserves to be in that conversation. Lawrence has attempted 100 more passes this season, which makes comparing the counting statistics tougher, but the overall picture is fairly even. The opportunity to sit last week should benefit #17, and he holds the edge in playoff experience as well. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
The Jaguars have solid personnel here with Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten, and Lawrence, but finished middle of the pack in team rushing. Not only did James Cook win an individual rushing title, but the Bills led the NFL in team rushing yards. That hadn’t happened since The Gilchrist and Simpson eras. Advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
Despite a disappointing season for Brian Thomas, Jr. and a season ending injury to Travis Hunter, the Jaguars’ passing attack was just fine, thank you. Jakobi Meyers has been a great mid-season acquisition, and 2023 6th round pick Parker Washington had a breakout year. It seems like the Bills fate might have a lot to do with keeping Dalton Kincaid healthy. We have seen some positive signs from Brandon Cooks and Gabe Davis recently, enough to balance the scale. Even.
Offensive Line:
This looks like the area where Bills fans should be most optimistic. Buffalo: top 5, Jacksonville: mid 20s. The matchup between the Bills OL and the Jaguars run defense should determine the outcome. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
I could dive deep into opponents and game situations and context, but the fact remains that the Jaguars ranks #1 in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed, and the Bills rank #27. Advantage Jaguars.
Pass Defense:
Fascinating. Turns out the Bills have the #1 defense in fewest passing yards allowed, while Jacksonville ranks in the 20s. Sacks are close at 36-32. Advantage Bills.
Special Teams:
The Bills kicking situation has been rocky most of the season, and Matt Prater’s health is a big question mark this morning. Cam Little is what we hoped Tyler bass could be, and then some. As good a returner as Ray Davis is, Washington and Tuten give the Jaguars the best return tandem in the league. Advantage Jaguars.
Intangibles:
The Jaguars have played only one close game since Thanksgiving, and that was against Phillip Rivers. The Bills have played four.
The Forecast:
100+yards for James Cook, ball security, time of possession, and playoff experience all add up to a:
27-23 Bills win.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
I just learned about Jacksonville’s “Camel Rider” sandwiches…short answer is a sub in a pita, and the standard is a cold sandwich, but I’ll opt for the hot version described as “Steak in a Sack”.
Beer:
The Bud Light “Blizzard Brew” arrived to Wegman’s in mass quantities last Monday. I promised a review: if you like Bud Light (I do), this might be the freshest Bud Light I have ever bought, and that matters.
Music:
RIP Grateful Dead founding member Bob Weir. The tie dye light display atop the Empire State Building was a nice touch.
- I Need A Miracle…every day.
- El Paso…great cover of the Marty Robbins ballad.
- Good Lovin…”even a blind man knows when the sun is shining”.
- Playing In The Band…”I can tell your future, look what’s in your hand, But I can’t stop for nothing I’m just playing in the band.”
Go Bills!
Editor’s Babble: All we’ve waited for all season is upon us. Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his terrific contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on X @joer869.
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