Sunday, December 14th at 1 p.m. ET.
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts.
Weather: Snow ending, low 30s.
Latest line: Bills-1.5, over/under 49.5.
Last week: won outright (9-4), lost vs the spread (6-7), won the over/under (9-4).
No one framed this game better than Dion Dawkins. We do not want to watch the Pats passing out AFC East Championship t-shirts and hats this week. Not this week. New England’s remarkably smooth 2025 path includes a late bye RIGHT BEFORE Bills rematch week. The Bills have not been swept by a division opponent since 2019; to the damn Patriots… Can Buffalo extend that streak to six years and hope for a week 18 miracle?
The Breakdown
QB:
Not even the most wicked pissed New Englander would suggest that Drake Maye is better than Josh Allen, but he’s well on his way to the top tier. Only Matthew Stafford has better numbers, but Mr. Maye is not throwing to Puca and Davante. Neither is our beaming father-to-be Josh Allen, but he has compiled some of his most spectacular highlights (a high bar indeed) in 2025. This marks the last in a stretch of great QB matchups for Buffalo; Mahomes, Mayfield, Rodgers, Burrow, and Maye in a 7-game stretch. So far 4-0. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Are there any surplus 1970s Oakland Raiders ‘stick’em’ glue in a back room somewhere for the running backs involved? If you believe in a curses, the fumble statistics for OJ and Thurman and recently James Cook back you up. New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson has an equal number of lost fumbles. Much better for Treveyon Henderson with only one. Drake Maye is a very good running QB, but Josh Allen is the GOAT. Advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
Diggs during the Patriots 10 game winning streak: 100+/3, 50+/1, >50/6. Of course, his season best 146 came in Buffalo. Can he ratchet up 100 yards of spite again? Kayshon Boutte’s 6 TDs are sneaky good. Hunter Henry is having the best season in his nine-year career. But a full go Kincaid plus Cook and Ty Johnson balances the scale. How about we throw to Shavers? No one including all of us expects it. Even.
Offensive Line:
The Patriots playing without Will Campbell is a big deal. It hasn’t stopped their winning streak, but look at the opponents. The Bills starting five is back intact this week and should be the deciding factor in this football game. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
The Patriots season long #3 in fewest rushing yards allowed does not match their recent form. Ditto the Bills #27 ranking. NE still gets the nod, but not enough to overcome James Cook and the Bills superior OL. Advantage Patriots.
Pass Defense:
Only Cleveland has allowed fewer passing yards than Buffalo, but that didn’t calm our stomachs while Joe Burrow was carving us up on 3rd downs. New England is middle of the pack, With Benford (?), Advantage Bills.
Special Teams:
I had to look up rookie New England kicker Andy Borregales, but he’s having a really nice rookie season. Great accuracy, limited range thus far. Marcus Jones is a top 3 punt returner… let’s put one of those on our draft wish list. Advantage Patriots.
Coaching:
Last year did a number on Mike Vrabel’s winning percentage, but he and Sean McDermott are on the same plateau of Head Coaches, stuck until they hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Even.
Intangibles:
Off the bye, New England is healthier. I waited as long as possible, but as of Sunday morning Benford is still questionable. Hunch us he will try. The Patriots are less than battle tested; they have played the current holders of the #s 2.3.4.5,7,9 (Falcons pick the Rams own), and 10. Add the Buccaneers who are 1-5 over the last six. And they lost to #1 Las Vegas! Is this the easiest schedule in NFL History?
The Forecast:
Buffalo 24 New England 20.
Even in this weird season, a split is the logical outcome. No swag for you!
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
We decided to go out for this game to spare our dog the yelling, I see a Guinness inspired wing sauce on the menu to try.
Beer:
I am pretty sure that our viewing spot includes Yuengling in their gameday beer specials.
Music:
As we marked the 45th anniversary of the murder of John Lennon, Facebook reminded me that Howard Cosell broke the news while the Patriots John Smith was warming up to break a 13-13 tie vs the Dolphins and win the game. He missed a 35 yarder and New England lost in overtime…
From John Lennon:
- Nobody Told Me… Strange days indeed!
- Revolution…my go to whenever I hear someone dismiss the Beatles as a pop band.
- Whatever Gets You Through The Night…his first of two US #1 singles.
- Instant Karma…”better recognize your brother is everyone you meet”.
One at a time. I’m sure the AC East Championship t-shirts and hats have been produced; keep those boxes sealed!
Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his Fedora Forecasts. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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