Fedora Forecast: Bengals at Bills

Sunday, December 7, 2025 at 1 p.m. ET. Never forget 12/7/41!
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY…three to go.
Weather: 20s, lake effect snow.
Latest line: Bills-6, over/under 53.
Last week: Won outright (8-4), won against the spread (6-6), lost the over/under (8-4).

I don’t remember too many 4-8 teams coming to Orchard Park in December and raising BillsMafia’s pregame stress level, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals have done so this week. Surely, they pose a threat, but it is safe to say that the Bengals have not fared well in the “complementary football” category. And that playoff loss still needs to be avenged. Will the Bills take care of business and keep AFC East hopes alive heading to New England?

The Breakdown:

QB:

If you were to compare both careers right now, durability and rushing give Josh Allen the edge over Burrow, and that definitely is the case in 2025. Advantage Buffalo if the turnover battle stays neutral or positive. Taking better care of the football is the biggest key to victory this week.

Run Game Weapons:

I didn’t know Chase Brown was born in London, Ontario. He is a good mid-tier RB, and a very good 5th round value. Turf toe Joe is not a threat to scamper. James Cook is chasing down Jonathan Taylor in a quest to join Cookie Gilchrist (2) and OJ Simpson (3) as rushing title winners. It would be fitting to close a Stadium that opened with a rushing title in 1973 with another one. Speaking of milestones, Josh Allen is posting QB rushing TD totals that will last like Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game or Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak. Advantage Bills.

Pass Game Weapons:

Opposite ends of the spectrum…no team has a better pair of boundary WRs than Cincinnati in Chase and Higgins, Buffalo is looking at Tyrell Shavers, Brandon Cooks, Gabe Davis, and Keon Coleman this week. All aboard the WR train. Kincaid playing would be a pleasant surprise, but does anyone rely on that anymore? Advantage Bengals.

Offensive Line:

The Bengals OL quality is reflected in their 4-8 record, but there has been improvement of late. The Steelers game was one of the proudest moments for the Bills depth and Coach Kromer, and the Schnow will be flying in OP. Advantage Bills.

Run Defense:

The Bills sit 30th in rushing yards allowed, but the last six quarters they have been vastly improved. And Cincinnati sits a distant 31st. Shaq Thompson is the latest in a long line of fun late career Bills LBs (Isaiah Robertson, Chris Spielman, London Fletcher, and Lorenzo Alexander to name a few). Advantage Bills.

Pass Defense:

The Bills have allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL. #1 vs #32. Nice. Advantage Bills.

Special Teams:

A missed extra point two weeks in a row is not a good trend. For the Bengals, McPherson is perfect on XP and pretty close on FGs. Their punter leads the league in average, and their returner has a TD this year. Kudos, Advantage Bengals.

Coaching:

For all the peaks and valleys in the approval ratings of both McDermott and Taylor, they are good coaches with winning percentages to back it up. Even.

Intangibles:

The Bengals are in a must win situation most likely, although an 8-9 AFC North winner is not impossible. Most of the Bills leaders were around for that disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals.

The Forecast:

Bills 34 Bengals 27

30+ points at home and a 100-yard game for James Cook are the recipe for a win.

The Pregame Plan:

Food:

Pass on the spaghetti part, but Cincinnati’s Skyline Chili Coney Dogs are a great way to stay warm. Do include the cheddar and onions.

Beer:

I couldn’t resist the name of 42 North Brewing’s “Where Else Would You Rather Beer”, but the product itself is a very worthy Kolsch.

Music:

I will make our guests happy with a block of “Jungle” songs

1. Bungle In the Jungle… ]ethro Tull.
2. Run Through The Jungle…CCR.
3. Jungle Love…The Steve Miller Band.
4. Welcome To The Jungle… Guns And Roses.

Here’s hoping the Bills defend their house this week, and we have a fun week leading up to the pivotal division rematch with the Patriots.

Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his Fedora Forecasts. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.