Sunday, November 30, 4:25 p.m. ET
Acrisure Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Weather: mid 30s, 15-20 mph wind
Latest line: Bills-3, over/under 45.5
Last week: lost outright (7-4), won against the point spread (6-5), won the over/under (8-3).
24 NFL games and two weekends of college football will be in the books between the Bills painful (literally) loss in Houston and kickoff in Pittsburgh. Was that and the blessings of a Thanksgiving meal enough to remove the bad taste from the Texans game? It worked for me, but the continued fury on social media surrounding the Bills indicates it did not help everyone. I will say that if this is an “off year”, it is a bit disappointing to be happening in a season of overall parity and mediocrity in the NFL, but the flip side is the better than usual chance for a Wild Card to win the Super Bowl. One at a time-up, first up the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Breakdown:
QB:
Trying to match Tom Brady’s 40-year-old plus Super Bowl wins appears to be a fool’s errand, but so does trying to win with an average set of WRs. Aaron Rodgers can look like his old self on any given Sunday, just not consistently, and definitely not without a clean pocket. Good recipe for 14-3: 28 TDs/6 INTs… those were MVP stats! 18 TDs/9 INTs, and you are fighting for a Wild Card. I can only imagine what went on behind closed doors at One Bills Drive this past week, but that better be the last time Josh Allen gets sacked 8 times. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Jaylen Warren joins a long list of great backup RBs who were not great starting RBs. Kenneth Gainwell is actually doing a good job replacing Warren at RB2. James Cook has six 100+ yard games so far this season: the Bills are 5-1, with a +76-point differential. Less than 100 yards for Cook: 1-4, -33. How about we set a baseline of 25 carries for Cook this week? Advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
Similar to the Texans game. both sides are below average. DK Metcalf is the best of the lot, but the gap between him and Shakir is much smaller than Nico Collins last week. Dalton Kincaid healthy would swing this the Bills way, but we WNYers wait patiently (lol) for him and the Sabres Josh Norris to return and improve the fortunes of two widely criticized GMs. Even.
Offensive Line:
By necessity, the no-name Steeler line is much better at protecting their Aaron Rodgers statue than opening up the running game. I do not remember a Bills game where BOTH starting tackles were out, but there were years we would not have noticed. Not the case with Dawkins and Brown missing. It will be easier for the backups to run block, so I should get my wish of a big James Cook game, regardless of whether we see Grable or Anderson at RT.
Run Defense:
The Steelers run defense stats are middle of the pack; unfortunately, the Bills are not. 31st if you need to know. Shaq Thompson should help. When you compare it this way: Bills running game against the Steelers run defense VERSUS the Steelers run game vs the Bills run defense. Advantage Bills.
Pass Defense:
It’s still hard to accept losses to Tua, Penix, and Davis Mills, but that does illuminate that we are not getting beat through the air. The Bills still are top 5 in most pass defense categories. and that is more impressive in context of average at best QB pressure. The Steelers, with TJ Watt rushing and Jalen Ramsey leading the secondary, are 32nd in the NFL in yards/game. Advantage Bills.
Special Teams:
Matt Prater has been solid, but fitting this season his one missed XP had maximum negative impact on the bottom line. We recently experienced a “Fullbacks Matter” game. today could be “Punters Matter”. I might have to honor Aussie Mitch Wishnowsky in the beer selection! Chris Boswell is really good, but I like Ray Davis over Gainwell as a returner. Even.
Coaching:
Two guys with 100+ wins and .600+ winning % on the hot seat? Yes. Neither Steeler Nation nor Bills Mafia has infinite patience on a plateau, no matter how close the summit appears. And as Ricky Ricardo might put it, Joe Brady has some ‘splaining’ to do after a game and a Josh Allen quote that will live in infamy. Even.
Intangibles:
The Bills 2-3 road record is scary. Hopefully McDermott’s record off the bye applies to this mini bye.
The Forecast:
Bills 27 Steelers 20
Let James Cook!
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Perfect time for the Thanksgiving version of a Primanti Brothers Sandwich-turkey, shoestring fries, and cole slaw.
Beer:
Anybody remember the 80s craze for all things Australian? Men at Work? Crocodile Dundee? The Foster’s oil can was my favorite, a precursor to today’s 25 oz cans.
Music:
We lost the great Reggae Artist Jimmy Cliff this week…the soundtrack to “The Harder They Come” is easily an all-time top 10 Album for me.
- Sitting in Limbo….since 2020.
- Pressure Drop….Toots and The Maytals, but the Clash’s version is even better.
- You Can Get It If You Really Want…Billieve!
- The Harder They Come…the harder they fall. One and all.
Right now, there is little margin for error. May the Buffalo Bills win this week!
Editor’s babble: Ugh. Let’s hope the Bills pull this one out. Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his Fedora Forecasts. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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