Fedora Forecast: Bills at Texans

Thursday, November 20th at 8:15 p.m. ET.
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Weather: Dome
Latest line: Bills -5.5, over/under 43.5

Latest week: Won outright (7-3), won vs the spread (5-5), won the over/under (7-3).

I missed out on seeing Otto Graham, and last year’s Josh Allen “Double Triple” was on the road. To witness that live last Sunday was absolutely my favorite in person game at “The Ralph” since the turn of the century. Getting to see Baker Mayfield was an added bonus. The Syracuse Orange fan in me even enjoyed Sean Tucker’s career day; thankfully it wasn’t fatal. The Buccaneers fans in attendance were the best-behaved opposing fans I’ve ever encountered. It was a great day and a great way to say my personal goodbye to a special place.

No rest for the weary nor time to savor a fine victory. I hate Thursday Night Football! Can the Bills find a way to beat the NFLs best defense on the road, off a short week?

The Breakdown:

QB:

I have great respect for Davis Mills. Ask a boomer about Frank Reich or Jeff Hostetler. In recent memory, Nick Foles. He is a very good pocket passer-Jared Goff lite? Free wheeling Josh Allen looks like he gives Buffalo a better chance to win the game than game manager Josh Allen. Advantage Bills.

Run Game Weapons:

Some might argue that the Bills run defense can make any RB look good, but if Woody Marks and Nick Chubb run all over Buffalo I will be surprised. James Cook has been contained occasionally this season but not stopped. I wouldn’t mind seeing a few more Josh scrambles between the 20s. Advantage Bills.

Pass Game Weapons:

Nico Collins is the best of both teams and earns the checkmark. If Dalton Kincaid were playing, it would be closer. By far, the Bills have more good options if they choose to use them, most notably James Cook and Ty Johnson. If Tyrell Shavers backs up his production from last week, the outlook shifts dramatically. Slight advantage Texans.

Offensive Line:

The Bills are a top 5 unit in everyone’s rankings, and the Texans are bottom 10. Reggie Gilliam’s blocking should be a big factor this week. Fullbacks Matter! Advantage Bills.

Run Defense:

Neither the numbers nor the eye test are good right now for Buffalo. Significant improvement is needed if they have any hope of a playoff run. The Texans defense does everything well. Advantage Texans.

Pass Defense:

This one might be closer. Christian Benford looked like a Pro Bowler last week. Cole Bishop gets better every week. But Houston has two shut down CBs and a ferocious pass rush. DE Will Anderson is on a short list for defensive player of the year. Advantage Texans.

Special Teams:

Mitch Wishnowsky has been a bright spot-best Bills P since Brian Moorman? Prater and Fairbairn are about equal. The Bills are coming off a game changing performance on coverage and returns and get the nod for that. Advantage Bills.

Coaching:

Two former DCs in McDermott and Ryans going at it, but all eyes on Joe Brady. Slight advantage Bills.

Intangibles:

It’s a revenge game for the Bills, suffering a 23-20 defeat in Houston last September.

The Forecast:

The Bills secure a hard fought 24-20 win. Could be a bumpy ride-fasten your seatbelts.

The Pregame Plan:

Food:

It is a tough choice between brisket and pastrami for me as the premium cheeseburger topping, but in Houston Brisket wins.

Beer:

I had my first Shiner Bock when Joe Ferguson and Joe Cribbs shared the Buffalo backfield.

Music:

From Houston’s greatest contribution to Rock and Roll, ZZ Top:

1. La Grange…didn’t get the subject matter at 11, but I did get the riff.
2. Legs…third straight double-digit rushing TD season for #17.
3. Tush…how has this not gotten linked to the red zone play.
4. Sharp Dressed Man…Jordan Poyer the Bills best dressed?

I would like to wish everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy the break before the stretch run.

Editor’s babble: This game is so important for so many reasons. Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.