Sunday, October 26, 1 p.m. ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Weather: 67, partly cloudy
Latest line: Bills-7, over/under 46.5
Before the bye: Lost outright (4-2), lost vs the spread (2-4), lost the over/under (3-3)
As the great philosopher Jerry Reed once said “When you’re hot, you’re hot. And when you’re not, you’re not.” The team, Joe Brady, our beloved QB, our run defense, and my forecasting fit that description. Let’s hope the bye reverses all our fortunes. Up this week are the 4-3 Carolina Panthers, with a Mafia takeover expected. As I write this, I suspect the Labatt’s and the Loganberry are flowing, washing down the wings and weck. Do we put the slump behind us?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Looks like our old friend Andy Dalton will be under center for the Panthers. After watching the Rodgers/Flacco air show, I have healthy respect for “vintage” QBs. But the Red Rifle doesn’t quite have the resume of those guys. We all accept that the NFL is a week-to-week league, but we don’t accept that from our MVP QB. 200.6 yards per game passing the last five games is a little troubling. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
As impressive as James Cook has been, Carolina understudy Rico Dowdle may have topped him. Any carries that returning starter Chuba Hubbard takes away is probably in Buffalo’s favor. The Panthers aren’t shy to ride the hot hand; imagine a game where Cook gets 30 carries… Josh makes up any difference right now. Even.
Pass Game Weapons:
Carolina 2025 1st round pick Tet McMillan was good right out of the box. Last year’s model, Xavier Leggette, is starting to figure it out. This is where we note the Bills have only drafted two first round WRs this century. Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir help. Josh Palmer will be missed. Curtis Samuel plays less than Bill Walton did in his later years, and the pressure is mounting on Keon Coleman to provide consistent production in line with his snap count. To date in 2025, the usage of Cook and Ty Johnson in the passing game has been a disappointment. Advantage Panthers.
Offensive line:
The two monster games for Dowdle evidence a solid unit in the run game; how well they can protect Andy Dalton should be one of the keys to the game. Our starting five should be rested and healthy off the bye, let’s hope they are more disciplined as far as penalties the rest of the way. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
Let’s hope that Larry Ogunjobi helps. Let’s hope that nobody else is playing hurt. Maybe the Bills catch lighting in a bottle with Taylor Rapp’s replacement. But right now the numbers speak for themselves, and it sound like “yuck”. The style contrast between a 3-4 and 4-2 is worth noting. Advantage Panthers.
Pass Defense:
The aspect of this game that makes me the most optimistic is that I expect the Bills to be able to get to Andy Dalton much easier than Drake Maye, and I don’t expect Josh to be as harried as he was against the Falcons. Both secondaries require that kind of help. Jordan Poyer should be a stabilizing influence. Advantage Bills.
Special teams:
The Bills coverage has been good, the return game mediocre. Maybe the ultra-steady Matt Prater is a slight edge over Carolina rookie kicker Ryan Fitzgerald. Hugs for Panthers Punter Sam Martin. Even.
Intangibles:
Backup QBs work both ways. Sean McDermott is 8-0 coming off a bye and boy does he need this one. It could be a quasi-home game if the Mafia takeover meets projections. Advantage Bills.
The Forecast:
For all the injuries the defense has struggled to weather, I have been accounting for Bills opponents scoring in the 20s. I did not account for a return to the offensive woes of that six-game stretch in 2023. The Bills recipe for 30 should be modest…250 passing yards for Josh. 100+ rushing yards for Cook, and no turnovers.
Bills 31 Panthers 20
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
The best way to approach a losing streak is to simplify. I’m sure some White Hots made the trip to North Carolina. Salt potatoes and cole slaw on the side.
Beer:
My Labatt’s Zubaz Can brought good luck at the Rochester Americans game last night, so why tempt fate?
Music:
Hailing from Asheville, North Carolina, Luke Combs is a good bet and would be a fine choice to perform the Super Bowl Halftime someday.
- “One Number Away”…a song about calling exes fits the Bills M.O.
- “Fast Car”…one of the great remakes ever.
- “Hurricane”…his debut single from 2016.
- “Beer Never Broke My Heart”…it takes one hand to count the things I can count on.
As Barney Fife would recommend, let’s nip this in the bud!
Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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