Thursday, September 18, 8:20 p.m. ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: Upper 60s, light wind
Latest line: Bills-12, over/under 50
Forecast Scoreboard: Outright 2-0, Vs Spread 2-0, Over/under 1-1.
I did pick the Bills to cover last week, but not the shutdown Buffalo defense nor the unstoppable running attack. One week at a time, but three home games in a row vs. a combined 1-5 trio of opponents makes that a bit difficult. Up first is the final appearance at The Ralph for the Miami Dolphins. There were scattered picks last week for a Jets upset; I haven’t heard one for the Dolphins this week. Any given Thursday is always possible, I guess. Will it be close?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Josh Allen didn’t need to do much against the Jets, but his early 40-yard run landed the first damaging punch in the knockout victory. Too bad the visor wasn’t paired with the Storm Trooper uniforms this week. I would expect numbers this week between the Ravens 4th quarter and the Jets game, say 250+ and 2 TDs. Tua put up 315 yards in a losing effort last week, after a dreadful opener against the Colts. Turnovers continue to plague him and the Dolphins winning percentage. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
De’Von Achane is dangerous, but the Patriots limited him to 30 yards on 11 carries. As for Buffalo, watch James Cook. This morning he is 4th in the NFL in rushing; looking at the Bills schedule and the Bills Offensive Line , a rushing title becomes an interesting proposition. Ride that horse Joe Brady. Advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
Tyreek Hill, aka “the cheetah”, was a flashy acquisition by Miami, but no playoff wins on that side of the trade. Meanwhile, in KC… sigh. Jaylen Waddle is now probable. Throw in Achane and Jaylen Wright, and the Dolphins 4×100 relay might defeat the Bills. Two very quiet weeks so far for Khalil Shakir; I expect a bigger role tonight. Any of the Bills’ 3 TEs would be an upgrade for Miami, which balances the scale. Even.
Offensive Line:
Top 3 vs. bottom 3. When Jackson Hawes lines up, you can make an argument that the Buffalo Bills have the best blocking unit in the NFL. How cool is that! As for the Dolphins, some of their woes are injury related, but the blueprint was doomed from day one. Huge advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
Will we see the Bills defense that got torched by Derrick Henry, or the one that smothered Breece Hall? As Sal always says, every game has its own DNA. Interesting showcase of rookie Defensive Tackles with Miami’s Kenneth Grant and the Bills Deone Walker. Former Bill and solid run defender Tyrel Dodson starts for the Fish. Even at this point.
Pass Defense:
As nicked up as Buffalo’s secondary has been all August and September, Miami is dealing with worse. Welcome back Rasul Douglas. Tackling might be the most important element to the Bills defense against the Dolphins, with all the short, quick passes. I was happy to see Cole Bishop have a much-improved week 2, and I expect by the time he gets another dozen games under his belt. we are going to have a heck of a free safety. Safe to say we see far more passing yards than the Jets game. Benford being the difference, Slight advantage Bills.
Special teams:
The early returns on new Special Teams Coach Chris Tabor are outstanding. Ditto for the guy he brought in, Sam Franklin. Matt Prater alone might be worth Episode 6 of Hard Knocks. Would you prefer Riley Patterson? Advantage Bills.
Coaching:
Trust the Process vs. Another Day Closer To Death. Mike McDaniel has an innovative offensive mind, but his demeanor is not what you want leading your NFL Franchise. The Pats have their HC, the jury is out on the Jets, but Miami flounders on the road to nowhere. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
Are the Dolphins really going to lay it all out to save McDaniel’s job. It’s a home night game on an 80-degree September day for the final Fish game at The Ralph.
The Forecast:
I thought the 12 points was low when it came out, but it has been steady. Who is betting the Dolphins with confidence? On the other hand, when a line looks off, I get a little cautious. There is a good probability of explosive plays on both sides. The last ten meetings the Bills are 9-1, with 5 double digits plus wins. Our offense is much better this year.
Bills 38 Dolphins 21
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Miami’s final visit to the Ralph AND National Cheeseburger Day calls for a little Jimmy Buffett themed menu, namely a big warm bun and a huge hunk of meat. What would you rather be eating right now than a Cheeseburger in Paradise?
Beer:
Back to an old favorite in its limited edition Bills themed cans, Souther Tier IPA. They aren’t in my wheelhouse, but I have to mention Southern Tier’s Fall Seasonal’s Pumking and Caramel Apple Pie. Might be worth a trip to Lakewood for a flight of their more exotic beers.
Music:
Make those wearing their Marino Jerseys in the tailgate lots feel at home with some Jimmy Buffet:
- Cheeseburger In Paradise-which way do I steer?
- It’s Five O’Clock Somewhere-already in OP!
- One Particular Harbor-for those whose happy place is “The Ralph”.
- Gypsies In The Palace-a lot of us in 2026.
I’m with Joey Bosa on Thursday football, but the mini bye after will be nice. Some of us still like a good pennant race.
Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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