Bills Elimination Game — Safety

History says that 20 safeties will be picked in the coming draft. Pick the Over for April 24-26, 2025.

The Bills aren’t likely to start a rookie over Taylor Rapp, so I expect the Bills to take one vet from free agency and one future starter to develop from this draft class. I expect Damar Hamlin to take a hometown discount and a lesser role in 2025; he’s an excellent teacher. Cole Bishop, 6’2″, 206, 4.45, was the fourth safety off the board in last year’s draft at RD2#60. The free agent market for safety is not as attractive as cornerback this year. The high run-defense grades of the Raiders’ Tre’von Moehrig and Niners’ Jevon Holland would make me lean toward them if Beane wants a vet Safety back there.

The Bills should be looking for the safety (or two) who can best chameleon themselves between big run-defending thumper in the box (high Solo Tackles Per Game) and fleet pass-defending wizard (high PBU and INT).

Let’s dive into the 2025 Safety pool. Here are their Pre-Combine Safety class rankings on BuffaloFAMBase’s Big Board (Y’all can run a mock with it over at FanSpeak.com):

The last two column shows the Bills’ ScoutScores for 2024, which gives the sum of credentialed scout attention for that school, weighted as follows: 1 Game with 1 Scout=1 pt., Beane=3 pts extra, Joe Brady/Bobby Babich=2 pts. extra, Tropicana=1 pt., Shrine=2 pts., Senior Bowl 3 pts., McDermott/Aranda or Diaz connection= 3 pts., Combine meeting=2 pts., Pro Day attendance =2 pts., 30-Visit=5 pts. Obviously, with Combine, Pro Days, and 30-Visits, even a Jonas Sanker, Hunter Wohler, or Aubrey Burks could overtake the Jeffrey Bassa of the class.

Let’s arrange the safeties by ScoutScore:

Beane’s minions are shopping mainly in 3 Big Box stores –the Big10, SEC, and a couple of ACC, in that order. Only #330 Malik Verdon is from the Big 12, there are no AAC, Mountain West, or MAC schools listed at all.

I mentioned two qualities above: high Solo Tackles Per Game and fleet PBU/INT. Here’s the above list arranged by Solo Tackles Per Game:

A few things struck me. Nick Emmanwori hails from one of the four highest-scouted schools in 2024. “E-man-WAR-ee” is one of the leaders of the staunch Gamecocks’ defense, with plenty of experience at SS in their Bills-y 4-2-5 defense. He finished this season with 88 tackles, 4 INTs and two pick-sixes. Nick has impressive Jeremy Chinn size (6-3, 220) that complements FS Cole Bishop’s position-room-leading 6-2, 207. The Bills’ intent, I think, is to get bigger to counterpunch the return of the evolving NFL running game and “Move TE” game in 2025. Emmanwori’s 5.65 solo tackles per game is the highest of all safeties in the draft class, and he’s top 6 in zone (with Wohler, Nwankpa, Castro, Sabb, and Winston Jr.). Another thing is striking about this particular sorting: While Emmanwori leads the safety class in solo tackles per game, draft darlings Xavier Watts, Sebastian Castro, and Malachi Moore are in the botom five for solo tackles –perhaps because nobody throws to their coverage zone. We’ll check that in a second.

That was the run-defense aspect in which the Bills were below average in 2024. Now let’s sort by the sum of their career PBUs + INTs. This will look at these safeties’ performance in pass coverage, which McDermott employs to give the D-Line time to get to the QB. Offensive Coordinators know enough to get the ball out quickly against the Bills –but what if all targets are covered and they have noboby to throw to?

Our suspicions that offenses tended to avoid the coverage zones of Malachi Moore and Xavier Watts is confirmed: Moore and Watts have the highest combined numbers of passes broken up plus INTs in the entire draft class. If Beane wants Cole Bishop’s college production in the passing game (Bishop’s number of PBUs+INTs was 15 at Utah), he’d double it with Malachi Moore. Moore made significant contributions on the field and earned many accolades at “Bama, one of the six most-scouted schools. Moore has 36 starts over 5 years with the Tide. He’s a permanent team captain and a SS in a 4-2-5 scheme also similar to the Bills’. Malachi’s community service efforts were also recognized with a spot on the 2023 Wuerffel Trophy Watch List. The redshirt senior is outstanding in man coverage and holds his own in zone.

If I’m looking for chameleon safeties who are adept at both run and pass coverage, I should look no further than Texas Longhorn Andrew Mukuba. Mukuba, once ranked as Pro Football Network’s #1 Safety, adeptly splits his time between free safety, the nickel spot, and the box. That’s the level of “chameleon player” that McBeane craves. He picked off Bech in the first scouted game vs Georgia. Sam Teets says Andrew is a “fluid athlete with the recovery speed and range to surprise offenses. He mirrors and matches routes well in zones and off-man against tight ends”. oooh, tight ends, eh?!? That’s a vulnerability with the Bills. Over 2022-24 while at Clemson, Mukuba amassed 173 tackles, a sack, 13 pass breakups, 6 interceptions, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery across 50 games, 43 of which were starts.

Xavier Watts boasts a career total of 47 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss (TFL), and 7 interceptions (INT); he’s the FBS leader in interceptions last season with seven, and I don’t have to tell you which NFL team led in turnovers in 2024. In the scouted Louisville-ND game, the 2023 Nagursky Trophy-winner recorded 1 TFL and 1 solo tackle, and he added to his impressive résumé with two INTs in another scouted game against Pitt. Watts is very good at zone, and he’s top five in man coverage, something the Bills might be tooling up to do this year. By the way, he returns kicks.

So who’s the safety who can best chameleon himself between big run-defending thumper in the box (high Solo Tackles Per Game) and fleet pass-defending wizard (high PBU and INT)? Emmanwori’s the run-defending thumper, and Mukuba, while not as big, might be your fleet pass-defending wizard (high PBU and INT). Watch