Sunday, January 19, at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
Weather: Low teens, subzero wind chills.
Latest Line: Ravens-1, over/under 51.5.
No need to hype this one. Peak Josh vs. Peak Lamar in the playoffs. May the best team win, and whatever the outcome, may the winner spare us another Chiefs Super Bowl. The still photo of Mahomes flopping yesterday says far more than 1000 words.
If the Bills and Ravens played a best of seven… I would expect the series to see a game seven. Who wins game one of one today?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Both Josh and Lamar are in a far different place in their careers than their first playoff matchup. Namely, Hall of Fame caliber performance. Even.
Run game weapons:
My best historical context for Derrick Henry is a hybrid of Eric Dickerson and Earl Campbell. High praise indeed. The good news for Bills Mafia is that I give James Cook an equal chance of breaking a big run tonight. Advantage Ravens.
Pass game weapons:
Zay Flowers is listed as doubtful, which has a big impact in this category. Rashod Bateman’s 9 TDs and 16.8 yards per reception are impressive, and Mark Andrews is in form after a slow start. Justice Hill is the Ravens version of Ty Johnson. But the sum of the Bills everybody eats parts is greater than any team left standing in the playoffs. It’s like playing a basketball team where 7 guys average in double figures. Advantage Bills.
Offensive Line:
Baltimore is very good, Buffalo is better. If we scored it man for man, 3/2 Bills with wins at LT, RT, and RG. Advantage Bills.
Run defense:
The Ravens are statistically #1 in the NFL against the run, but the Broncos were #3, and we just witnessed how little that meant. Logic suggests the Bills game plan might be more pass oriented this week. It’s safe to say the Bills run defense will be much improved from week 4 when Bernard. Milano, and Taron Johnson were out. Advantage Ravens.
Pass defense:
The Ravens are better than their #31 ranking in passing yards allowed, but not all of that can be rationalized as being way ahead a lot of the time. Everybody is healthy for Buffalo; please keep it that way. Damar Hamlin has played at a higher level in recent weeks. Advantage Bills.
Special teams:
Did we get the one fake that is acceptable out of the way vs. Denver? That embarrassment fueled a solid game afterwards. This season is at worst a draw between Tyler Bass and Justin Tucker. Even.
Coaching:
17 years in Baltimore for John Harbaugh-wow. I am not on the side of the argument that one Super Bowl win makes you a “Made Coach”, but the rest of his numbers are excellent. 8 years in Buffalo for Sean McDermott: no trophy yet, but a winning percentage .33 better than the Ravens Coach. The X factor this week, and however far that Buffalo goes, is Joe Brady. He gives the Bills a slight advantage here.
Intangibles:
Four big ones work in Buffalo’s favor: Home field advantage, health, severe cold, and the revenge factor.
The Forecast:
On paper it looks even, The eye test says these are the two best teams in football. The lucky numbers that will propel Buffalo to the AFC Championship Game are #17 as in MVP, #12 as in the loud and proud 12th man, and #2 as in a game winning Tyler Bass field goal,
Bills 27 Ravens 24.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Yes, part of me has an eye on Monday night’s Notre Dame game. Great weather for a crockpot full of Irish Stew. with plenty of leftovers for tomorrow.
Beer:
It’s time for one of my favorite seasonals, the Irish Red Ales. Don’t wait until March 17th, they are fresh now! My go to every year is Great Lakes Brewing’s “Conway’s Irish Ale”; most places should have a local equivalent this time of year.
Music:
Sticking with the Irish, a block of U2:
- Mysterious Ways.
- Where The Streets Have No Names.
- I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For.
- Sunday Bloody Sunday.
Much love and respect for the 12 Man/Woman bundling up to make a difference tonight. I wish you the chance to sing Mr. Brightside!
Editor’s babble: This is going to be a barn burner of a game. Many thanks to Joe Reagan for guiding our way with his wonderful contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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