Sunday, January 12, 1 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
Weather: Balmy low 30s, occasional snow flurries.
Latest line: Bills-8.5, over/under 47.5.
Outside of “The Family”, there were plenty of doubters headed into this season. Inside “The Family”, it was more a matter of waiting impatiently for another attempt at the summit. It was a much easier trip to reach the final base camp in 2024-25. One game at a time, and first up are the Denver Broncos. Goes to show you never can tell; the Broncos looked doomed after the failed Russell Wilson experiment. Now they look like the next threat to KC in the AFC West. Will the Bills take care of business and set up Lamar vs Josh next week?
The Breakdown
QB:
Bo Nix was the sixth QB drafted in the first round of the 2024 draft. No doubt the Broncos are pleased with that decision. It’s been a remarkable recovery from the nightmare of the Wilson trade. But it’s January and he is a rookie QB on the road. It’s worth noting that Nix has a lot of passes knocked down, which may present turnover opportunities. After an incomparable four week stretch of excellence, Josh has been under wraps. It’s time to let it rip, although I don’t expect shootouts like Bills/Rams and Bills/Lions in the AFC Tournament. I do expect the best leadership from #17, and that is where our dream lives. Advantage Bills.
Run game weapons:
Only one playoff team has fewer rushing TDs than the Broncos (Vikings), James Cook AND Josh Allen each rushed for more TDs than the Broncos. Ray Davis would likely be RB1 in Denver. This one is a mismatch. Advantage Bills.
Pass game weapons:
Anyone in Bills Mafia who is also a draftnik knows all of the recently drafted WRs in the league. Yes, the WR Train never ends. Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims were on the radar here. Both are on the rise; Sutton ascended to top 10 WR status, Javonte Williams puts up nice receiving numbers. But the sum of the 10 parts that the Bills bring to the contest far exceeds those guys, and most teams in the NFL. Advantage Bills.
Offensive Line:
Way too little attention has been paid to how good Denver’s OL has been this season…Pro Football Network says #1 in the NFL based on their metrics. Garrett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey are the equal to Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. This one looks even, although I might lean Bills as far as the running game is concerned. Even.
Run defense:
Some of us old timers remember the 1970s Dolphins “No Name” defense. Since we remember Manny Fernandez, Jake Scott, Nick Buoniconti, Vern Den Herder 50 years later, they weren’t no name for long. That’s my impression of this year’s Broncos. They ranked 3rd in the NFL in fewest yards allowed, and the only player I didn’t have to look up was CB Patrick Surtain. The good news is that the Broncos are equally vulnerable to 20+ yard runs, and we have the more dangerous RB. Advantage Broncos.
Pass defense:
The most important factor here will be pressure on the QBs, The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks by a healthy margin, The Bills allow the fewest sacks by a healthy margin. Fun stuff! Can we officially declare Christian Benford as the most underrated DB in the NFL? Even.
Special teams:
I have faith in Bass and Martin, but Denver has the NFLs #1 punt returner in Mims. Advantage Broncos.
Coaching:
Both teams are well coached, If you want to point out Payton’s ring. I will counter with Joe Brady. Even.
Intangibles:
The Bills are undefeated at home this season, and Bo Nix is a rookie QB. Advantage Bills.
The Forecast:
Expect a close game for 3+ quarters, but the crystal ball sees a long clock killing touchdown drive in the 4th quarter.
Bills 31 Broncos 17.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
The final 1 p.m. ET kickoff gives us a last call for brunch food, and the opponent inspires Denver Omelets.
Beer:
I’ve seen some phenomenal artwork on beer cans, but sometimes simplicity works equally well in that marketing aspect. A perfect example is Oskar Blues “Dale’s Pale Ale”. The liquid inside is on my go to IPA short list.
Music:
A Colorado themed block:
- Rocky Mountain Way-Joe Walsh.
- A Mile High In Denver-Jimmy Buffett.
- Get Out of Denver-Bob Seger.
- I Know You Rider-Grateful Dead.
One at a time Bills Mafia, and no guarantees. My seatbelt is fastened Van.
Editor’s babble: Here we go. Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his Fedora Forecasts. Joe can also be found on Xwitter @joer869.
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