Pressure on Bills D vs Broncos

Many Bills fans won’t admit it, but the failure of the Burrow/Bengals to receive a post party invitation brought a sigh of relief.

Understandable. Facing a rookie QB playing his first NFL game in front of a jacked up Bills Mafia in Orchard Park is probably preferable to seeing Joe Burrow and the Bengals. A couple years ago they were here in a game that mattered, and a cold and snowy field didn’t matter as they dominated the Bills 27-10 in a Divisional playoff game to end their season.

I think that game was the most disappointing playoff game I’ve seen in 40 years, and yes, that includes the four Super Bowl losses.

But 2023 was just a climatic year, with injuries and weather and eventually the Damar Hamlin near catastrophe still fresh. At the season’s halfway point, the Bills were in deep do do to even make the playoffs.

But this season has been different, in a surprisingly good way. OC Joe Brady has been the key to simplifying Josh Allen’s game – more emphasis on protecting the football – and he’s doing it with an almost new cast of receiving characters. Instead of another struggle, the Bills roared out of the gate and almost coasted to a 5th straight AFC East title.

So who did they beat, you ask? How about the #1 AFC seed AND the #1 NFC seed? In the same season! Latest Vegas Super Bowl odds line up like this: Detroit (15-2) at +300 (Bills 48-42 at Detroit), then KC (15-2) at +350 (Bills 30-21 at Buffalo) and Buffalo and Baltimore T3rd at +550.

No way to spin that one if you’re trying to poke holes in the Bills season.

A meaningless 23-16 loss to the Patriots at Foxboro sends the 13-4 Bills into the playoffs as a 2 seed, where they are an early 9 1/2 point favorite over a dangerous Denver Broncos squad. Kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium and hallaluejah weatherwise, with partly sunny skies and temps in the low 30’s in the forecast.

We can avoid another week arguing about why the Bills aren’t building a dome next door. Speaking of which, if you haven’t been out there for awhile, the new stadium is already an impressive sight.

The Bills 13-4 record has to be considered a pleasant surprise in what was supposed to be a rearranging year. Statistically, the Bills offense is #10 in yardage, but #2 in scoring at 30.9 per game. The D is 17th in yards allowed, but tied for 9th allowing 21.6 per game. Despite the meaningless game at New England, the Bills did achieve a notable mark. They became the first team in NFL history to score 30 TD’s passing and 30 TD’s rushing in the same season. Impressive.

Some quick thoughts on the game in Foxboro. It wasn’t pretty for the winning team. Despite the win, the Pats fired HC Jerod Mayo after a 4-13 season. It seems highly likely the Pats will go after former player Mike Vrabel, which I think would be an excellent choice. Even winning the game couldn’t save Mayo, who was loved by owner Robert Kraft. But Mayo just wasn’t Bill Belichick. The W cost the Pats, who have many needs, the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft. Obviously that wasn’t Mayo’s fault. Actually, blame backup QB Joe Milton, who was impressive in his first NFL start. He just improved his market value whatever happens next.

Eight Bills starters were inactive, with Josh Allen taking just one snap to extend his consecutive start streak to 115 games. The way the NFL is right now, that feat is incredible. This is especially true with his all out style of play. He’s amazingly mobile for a 6-5, 245 pound athlete who sometime relishes contact a bit too much for Sean McDermott’s liking. But Josh is Josh, and you’ll be seeing more of his scrambling and tush pushes in the playoffs. Allen has played with a fractured left hand all season, and a right elbow contusion to add to an already injured right shoulder more recently.

Here’s my two cents about the ongoing MVP conversation. If the award is for the best stats, Lamar Jackson gets it. If the award for the Most Valuable Player, then Allen deserves it. I’m thinking it’s safe to assume there’s another trophy that JA is much more focused on.

One disappointment to me was the play of rookie WR Keon Coleman. He just seemed a bit casual, with 2 catches for 31 yards on 9 targets. Granted, the passes were coming from Mitch Trubisky and Mike White. Neither looked very good, but White was dreadful. Still, all the targets were 50-50 balls, and the Bills drafted Coleman to grab a few. He didn’t catch any of them. Hopefully he’s good to go vs the Broncos, because he’ll be needed.

I’m still optimistic Coleman will bounce back, but this was surprising to me.

The fact that the Bills organization was okay with some personal contract bonuses at play says a lot about Terry Pegula on down to GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott. He watched Von Miller get his $1.5 million sack on one take, with James Cook getting his 1,000 yards and franchise tying (with OJ Simpson in a 14 game season) 16th rushing TD. WR Mack Hollins and punter Sam Martin also hit their marks for money. Players notice this kind of thing in a positive way, but it’s all part of the Beane-McDermott culture.

Both signed contract extensions last year, so the path forward is set for a duo that works extremely well together.

Back to NE, resting the starters while not adding any new injuries moves the Bills into the playoffs as healthy as they’ve been all season.

This matters, as the D is now under the most pressure, assuming the offense continues to hum. The Bills have scored 30 or more in 6 home games, although Denver is playing great defense now and leads the NFL in sacks.

In their last 4 playoff elimination games, the Bills D has given up an average of over 440 yards per game in 3 losses to the Chiefs and the Bengals loss. Injuries were a factor, and it’s a concern. While it’s good news the Bills have tied a team record with a plus 24 mark in turnovers/giveaways, is it a sure thing that continues in the post season? Getting off the field on third down is the key, and Broncos rookie Bo Nix has been very good. He’s thrown 29 TD’s with 12 int’s, while rushing for 4 more. He’s extremely mobile and has a big arm.

But again, he’s a rookie, and meeting the experienced Bills in their raucous environment will be a challenge.

The Bills can’t afford to look past the Broncos, whom you’ll recall had the Chiefs beaten at Arrowhead until a game winning FG was blocked as the game ended. Not only that, the odds are in favor of the Bills then hosting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens if they don’t stumble against the Broncos.

Any Bills fan knows what’s next if they beat both Denver and Baltimore.

But we’ll think about that later.

Bills 27, Broncos 23

Editor’s babble: It’s always a great read to see what Ed Kilgore’s thoughts are about the Buffalo Bills. We appreciate his contributions to our blog. You can also fin Ed on Xwitter @Kilgore2Ed.