Bills in Great Position: Why the Negativity?

Remember not long ago the Bills salary cap limitations, followed by spending $31M to NOT have Stefon Diggs here, had most fans and media accepting this as a “transition” (rebuilding?) year? Even going as far to utter it might be a “wasted year” for Josh Allen, now 28.

Then the Bills jumped to an impressive 3-0 start – we didn’t know Arizona, Miami and the Jaguars weren’t very good – and Super Bowl here we come was back in the fans’ lexicon!

Then a blowout 35-10 loss at Baltimore blew up the world order. Fire Sean McDermott! Brandon Beane too!

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So. The ship began turning around even with a troublesome 23-20 loss at Houston. Allen was dreadful, for him anyway. He couldn’t get the passing game going and finished with only 131 yards on 9/30 attempts, while rookie C.J. Stroud racked up 331 yards and a TD. Now Stefon Diggs, who caught 6 for 82 yards but no TD’s, was reveling in his “clever” manipulation to divorce Allen and Buffalo.

But it’s all about he who laughs last, right? No need to even mention Diggs’ on field scuffle at Green Bay with CB Jaire Alexander, where Diggs told the media after a 24-22 loss “I’m never the bigger person. I ain’t lettin’ s**t go.” You’ll need to change the subject if you want an argument there.

Although still early, the Bills faced a big challenge in week 6. The Bills had never lost 3 straight with Allen on the team.

The Bills were equal to the challenge of a Monday Night matchup against the fired up Jets at Met Life Stadium, all but obliterating the Jets playoff hopes in a 23-20 win. The Jets had fired HC Robert Saleh earlier in the week and many times we’ve seen teams over achieve under similar circumstances, but the win was enormous for the Bills to get back on track.

And then the world got better! The Bills were able to pry five-time Pro Bowl WR Amari Cooper from the Browns, essentially giving up a 3rd round pick while even better, inheriting a contract under a million. Even if this turns into a rental for the 30 year old Cooper, this addition already changes the perception of the Bills as a legit SB contender.

Let’s get real. The Bills didn’t want Diggs’ negativity around anymore, but they clearly missed his presence on the field. It didn’t show up in the first 3 games with the Bills “everybody eats” philosophy, but that was a mirage.

It’s just one game, but the addition of Cooper makes the Bills offense look vastly different. After dropping his first target on the opening series, Cooper wound up catching a TD and 4 passes for 66 yards. With Cooper the route runner now a true #1 WR, Allen came alive after a slow first half, finishing with 323 yards and two TD’s passing against the Titans #1 NFL defense. Is that good? The Titans hadn’t allowed any QB to hit 200 before this, and Tennessee is STILL the NFL’s stingiest D.

With Cooper’s presence, and his didn’t have near the snaps he will going forward, rookie Keon Coleman had a monster game with 4 catches for 125 yards, Khalil Shakir chipped in with 7-65 and TE Dalton Kincaid had 3-52. Cooper is the exact opposite of Diggs. Quiet and focused. He’ll be a perfect mentor for Coleman especially. OC Joe Brady suddenly looks smarter, but good players are the key to success. Well DUH, Ed.

So now the Bills sit at 5-2 with a test at Seattle next Sunday against a dangerous 4-3 Seahawks team that may be without star WR DK Metcalf, who is week to week with a knee sprain. The Bills are a 3 point favorite.

Digressing a bit, but several years ago the Bills played at Seattle and I made the trip, having lived in Washington state in my earlier days. Before the game I saw a large contingent of Bills fans and approached them, assuming they’d know me.

Turns out, not ONE of them had ever even BEEN to Buffalo. They were from Oregon, Idaho and other places, and liked the Bills. I really laughed at that one.

So how good are the Bills NOW? Vegas oddsmakers have the Bills just behind KC with a 98% chance to make the playoffs, just ahead of the Ravens.

Giving Lamar Jackson his due after a fabulous five TD performance vs TB, he still isn’t the #1 QB according to ESPN’s QBR rating system. This is an extremely complicated system that includes strength of opposing defenses etc, but after all is said and done, the NFL’s #1 QB is Josh Allen with a 78.6 rating. Jackson is next at 74.3. The Chiefs, trying to win a 3rd straight SB, are 6-0 – despite Patrick Mahomes. He’s at #9 right now.

That’s kinda scary. Mahomes now has 6 TD passes and EIGHT interceptions! Who’s the turnover machine? Allen now has 12 TD passes and three more rushing – 15 total touchdowns – with ZERO interceptions. None. The Chiefs are winning now with defense, so how good will they eventually be?

Then again, how good can the Bills be with the addition of Cooper, assuming they can remain relatively healthy?

Statistics are for losers (they say) but they’re always interesting. The Bills offense, in terms of yardage, is 18th, and the defense is 20th.

BUT. The Bills offense is averaging 28.4 (5th) and the D 19.4 (8th).

No surprise here, but the Bills are the NFL’s #1 team in turnover percentage. They’re a plus 10, with only 2 turnovers in 7 games. They don’t beat themselves.

The Bills special teams are 4th overall, even though many Bills fans don’t understand why Tyler Bass is still here. Well, they just don’t have any better options right now, and Bass did convert 2-2 fg’s and all 3 PAT’s last week. Overall he’s 11-14 on FG attempts, which isn’t great but hardly terrible, and he hasn’t missed a PAT. One was blocked.

So despite a lot of negativity floating around, and ALL fans are guilty of this, the Bills are 5-2 with a two game lead in the AFC East. Miami is here in two weeks, and Tua Tagovailoa is still waiting to be cleared from another concussion. He’s heard all the well meaning advice, but he wants to play despite the risk. The Fins are certainly a different team with him, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been in Witness Protection without him.

The Jets are a mess, even with the addition of Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers can’t hide his frustration, but he hardly looks like the AR we’ve been used to for many years. He’s no longer mobile enough to avoid pressure, and the Jets D has now regressed. The Patriots? Are they still in the league?

Every week changes. Injuries happen. Teams regress, and some improve. But right now, with 10 games to go, the Bills are in a happy place. It’s encouraging to see some 2024 draft picks become key players. Coleman is looking every bit the star in the making the Bills hoped he’d be. RB Ray Davis is coming on strong, and he and James Cook are a nice compliment to each other. Defensive tackle DeWayne Carter has been a force.

So chill everybody. Let’s enjoy the ride!

Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Ed Kilgore and BluTusk Tech for supporting his contributions to our blog. You can also find Ed on Xwitter @Kilgore2Ed.