Monday, October 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Met Life Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Weather: 50s and breezy
Latest line: Bills-2, over/under 41
It wasn’t a fun week in Buffalo, between the Bills frustrating loss in Houston and a rough start for the Sabres. There was an audible sigh of relief on the hockey front Saturday night with a five goal outburst and a W. Can the Bills avoid a third straight loss, and seize a solid early lead in the AFC East?
The Breakdown
QB:
A lot of factors went into Josh Allen’s poor performance last week, but he willed Buffalo back into the game in the 2nd half. The numbers are very pedestrian; that was more fun at “don’t need to” than “unable to”. The offense has found midseason form, but unfortunately it’s also last year’s midseason funk. The good news is Josh Allen’s history responding to similar situations. As for Aaron Rodgers, the spirit is all over the place and the flesh and the legs are aging. Tom Brady was a unicorn. Advantage Bills.
Run game weapons:
Barring injury, and even behind a bad OL, Breece Hall is likely to regress to the mean of the RB who put up 1500 total yards and 9 TDs in 2023. Let’s hope that is gradual this week. James Cook remains questionable Monday morning but is expected to play. Either way, increased opportunities for Ray Davis and Ty Johnson could pay dividends short and long term. Even.
Passing game weapons: Aaron Rodgers is making Garrett Wilson look ordinary, but he’s still a top 10 talent at WR. The rest of the crew is uninspiring. Khalil Shakir was missed last week; he seems to be the only easy button for Josh thus far. With each passing week, the usage of Dawson Knox and Curtis Samuel defies explanation. Keon Coleman makes plays; can he make them consistently? Was the plan when the Bills traded up for Kincaid 600 yards and 4 TDs a season? The TEs SHOULD tip the scales to Buffalo.
OL: The Bills did not handle the step up in competition well vs the Ravens, or the Texans in the first half. The 2nd half last week was encouraging, and weeks 1-3 were solid. Rodgers’s lack of mobility makes a bad line look worse, but they have to answer to Hall’s 3.0 yards per carry as well. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
Neither team has impressed through five weeks, but Derrick Henry’s numbers make up any statistical difference between the two teams. Even.
Pass Defense:
I won’t go against the Jets #1 ranking in fewest passing yards per game, but it could be a lot closer than many would expect. It will be fun to compare Christian Benford to Sauce Gardner, although it would be more fun if the Bills had a #1 WR of Garrett Wilson’s caliber. The return of Taron Johnson and the absence of Jets nickel CB Michael Carter makes it even closer. Narrow edge to the Jets.
ST:
Tyler Bass and Sam Martin have been fine, but the Bills are missing some of their departed long term ST stalwarts like Siran Neal and Tyler Matakevich more than I thought they would. I think Brandon Codrington has a big return in him soon, why not tonight against the team that cut him? No advantage.
Coaching:
Out Saleh, in Ulbrich. My thinking is that if Saleh were to be judged on how well he performed against the Bills, he would still be there. If there is a “firing probability” stat, Saleh was in the danger zone from the day the Jets signed AR. You can’t coach mobility. It was one of the worst postgame weeks in the McDermott era, after an inexcusable late game sequence that doomed the Bills. Joe Brady’s offense is sputtering. Personnel or scheme related? Ask me at 11:30 tonight. No decision here.
Intangibles:
Does the coaching change dictate the narrative? Or does the Bills avoiding their first three game losing streak since 2018 take charge? Two game losing streaks are common.
The Forecast:
For all the talent on the Jets roster, they sure look like a mess and will until Aaron Rodgers is in their rearview mirror. For now, the quality of the Ravens and Texans and both games being on the road, overcomes the worries about Buffalo’s struggling passing offense.
Bills 23 Jets 13
The Pregame Plan
Food:
Cold damp weather call for hot sandwiches, and I’m in the mood for a Reuben from Fox’s Deli. A Rochester institution since 1943.
Beer:
Googled a good beer pairing for my Reuben, and they suggested an Amber Ale, Fat Tire from New Belgium Brewing should reach most tentacles of Bills Nation.
Music:
This year’s focus on deep cuts continues with some early Billy Joel:
- Worst Comes To Worst.
- Get It Right The First Time…
- You May Be Right…
- Don’t Ask Me Why..
Finally, back to Sunday AFTERNOONS next week!
Editor’s babble: This game gave me indigestion long before Saleh was fired. We are grateful for Joe Reagan’s contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869. Go Bills!
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