Sunday, October 6th, 1 p.m. ET
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Dome
Latest line: Bills-1, over/under 47
Listening to Jimmy Buffet’s “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On” was enough for me to get over the Ravens loss, the Bills first ugly loss in 42 games. At least I didn’t witness this one in person, like the last drubbing by the Colts a few seasons back. I don’t know the Bills record in this era when allowing a 50+ yard TD run, but it sure feels like it would be lousy. They have all been hard to watch, but Henry’s 87 yarder was the most painful to date. I am confident that the Buffalo defense we will see in January will be far less vulnerable. Next stop Houston. Can Josh Allen lead the injury riddled Bills to a quality road win?
QB:
I think this is the second most interesting QB matchup on Buffalo’s schedule… behind Allen/Mahomes of course, Josh has been more efficient, while CJ Stroud has almost 10 more attempts per game in compiling more completions and yards. Notable is the difference in sacks: Stroud 13 times, Allen only 5. The Josh Allen MVP train was delayed in the Chesapeake Station, but I expect it will make up the time in Texas. Advantage Bills.
Run game weapons:
No James Mixon for Houston, and Damon Pierce isn’t 100%. Should be a much better spot for James Cook this Sunday. I’d like to see more of Ty Johnson in the Bills offense, and Joe Brady has shown recent signs of agreeing with me. Advantage Bills.
Pass game weapons:
It looks like we aren’t going to see the Diggs vs Shakir debate play out this week-bummer. A highly motivated Stefon Diggs vs the Bills top shelf CBs is another terrific matchup. Nico Collins is what we would like Keon Coleman to become. If the crystal ball could show me Curtis Samuel’s stat line this coming Sunday, it would be much easier to predict the outcome. Dalton Kincaid makes it closer in this category, but advantage Texans.
Offensive Line:
The Bills aren’t the only injury riddled team. Lots of Q designations next to the names of the Texans OL. Through four games, the Bills OL rank better in every possible metric. It’s under the radar, but Connor McGovern is an upgrade from Morse, and David Edwards always belonged in the “best five”. Advantage Bills.
Run defense:
Not only was the long Henry TD romp visually painful, but it sent the Bills rushing yards per game to 30th.. I like to believe that health and the matchups will allow the Bills to regain middle of the pack status, where the Texans reside. The timing of returns by Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson is important with Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker on the horizon. Edge to the Texans based on recent form.
Pass defense:
The hunch here is that Houston’s passing yards per game will suffer a similar fate as the Bills did last week with rushing yards. Will Anderson at edge and Derek Stingley at CB are elite, but that is a bigger issue for teams that rely on a #1 WR and don’t have a QB so difficult to sack. Getting pressure on CJ Stroud has to be a big part of Buffalo’s defensive game plan. Show us what you’ve got, Gregory Rousseau. I hope to see Cole Bishop take his opportunity and make an impact, much like Bernard did last season. Slight edge to the Bills based on the time each QB will have to throw.
Special teams:
Recent form favors Fairbairn over Bass and Tommy Townsend over Sam Martin. A heavy dose of touchbacks on kickoffs is expected. Punts should be rare. Advantage Texans.
Coaching:
Demarco Ryans is off to a great start in his head coaching career, but unlike the matchup vs Andy Reid or John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott is far more experienced. Joe Brady and Bobby Babich had setbacks last week; I am interested to see how they respond. Advantage Bills
Intangibles:
The media is all over the Diggs revenge angle, but the focus should be on the playoff home field advantage when the Bills face the Texans and Chiefs.
The Forecast:
The Texans have a talented roster but have as many significant injury absences as the Bills. The difference should be the QBs.
Buffalo 31 Houston 23
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Any road game in Texas is a good excuse for brisket. On a Ciabatta Roll, with Monterey Jack, onion. pickle, and cole slaw. Fries on the side.
Beer:
There is so much variety in the beer aisle that sometime lagers get overlooked. I tried my fist Kona Longboard Lager with dinner this week and highly recommend it.
Music:
I might run out of ZZ Top songs for Houston games, but no time soon.
- La Grange-the opening riff equals any Led Zeppelin.
- Beer Drinkers and Hell Raisers-apt for Bills Mafia.
- Legs- “She knows how to use them”!
- Tush-pronounced different than the tush push.
The degree of difficulty is high this week for the Bills, but Josh Allen will find a way.
Editor’s babble: We are grateful for Joe Reagan sharing his Fedora Forecasts with us. You may also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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