What To Expect for Bills 2024-5

Let’s start by a roll of the eyes to whatever idiot players voted Josh Allen the NFL’s most overrated QB in an ESPN survey. Allen actually laughed it off and said he’s annoyed nobody asked him for HIS output. By any subjective or statistical measure you use – or just the eyeball test – Allen is a small step behind Patrick Mahomes, and a dropped pass, missed FG or blown lead with :13 would change that. In their last two playoff matches, Allen left the field late 4th quarter with the lead or tied and in easy FG range,

The Bills lost both times.

Looking at the bright side, Allen will have no problem getting ready for the coming season, despite so many uncertainties. No Diggs. No Davis. No Milano, although there is a slim chance he might return in December.

Of all the Bills games I’ve seen, and most of them in person, this coming season has so many variables in play it’s a mind-blower.

The first time I watched the Bills play, it was the debut of Rich Stadium in August 1973. Despite the fact it was a preseason game against the Washington Redskins, er, Commanders, a crowd of 80,000 showed up. Nobody really knew what to expect, and because of a massive traffic jam, less than half that number were in the stadium for the opening kickoff.

From my 50 yard line seat in the press box, I witnessed Herb Mul-Key return that opening kickoff 102 yards for a Washington touchdown. Mul-Key is now 74 years old, but it would be fun if the Bills invited him to be a guest for the 2026 opener in the new $1.7 billion Bills stadium.

The point is, I had no idea what to expect then, and I really have a foggy idea of how this 2024-25 Bills season is going to play out.

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Although some folks still argue the Bills should not have shipped Stefon Diggs to Houston after four Pro Bowl seasons as Josh Allen’s #1 target, Diggs himself forced the Bills to add by subtraction. His public negatively nuanced statements before the 2023 season were just the tip of the iceberg aimed at Allen and the Bills. Yes, the Bills do get a 2025 second round pick (via Vikings), but they also incurred a $31 million cap hit this year, which has made it impossible to be as aggressive as they’d like to be to upgrade the roster.

Not only that, Bills GM Brandon Beane also decided not to extend Gabe Davis’ contract, which is also a move that could backfire.

TE Dalton Kincaid, who had a terrific rookie season with 73 catches for 673 yards and 2 TD’s, could be Allen’s primary target – or one of the top two with Khalil Shakir the other – based on what we’ve seen after the preseason. High 2nd round pick WR Keon Coleman did look good in practice, but he had only 2 catches for 20 yards, on 6 targets, in limited pre season action.

While Allen didn’t shy away from throwing 50-50 balls to Coleman in training camp, with Coleman making some crowd pleasing grabs, Allen threw only three pre season passes as Coleman was all but ignored.

This isn’t good.

Part of the reason for Kincaid’s success last season, when he ran a lot of underneath patterns, was Diggs and Davis clearing out some shallow areas by going downfield. Both of them are gone. Coleman isn’t a bust by any means, but he’s not nearly ready to be a primary target. I’m one of those people thinking 40 times are overrated, but one of the knocks on Coleman was his 4.61 40 time at the NFL Combine. His route running times were much better by comparison, but he’s not a burner. Kincaid, for the record, ran a 4.71 40, not bad for a guy who’s 6-4 and 240 pounds.

Khalil Shakir is headed for a breakout year IMO, although he’ll draw more attention now. A 5th round pick from Boise St in 2022, Shakir has proven he’s worth a bigger piece of the offensive pie from OC Joe Brady. He’s 6’ 190 lb., but strong and quick (4.43 40) with amazing run after catch ability. He was also the NFL’s #1 receiver in terms of catches/targets ratio. If he touches the ball, it’s a catch.

Both Shakir and Kincaid were barely used in preseason, with Shakir 4-33 and Kincaid 1-7.

It’ll be interesting to see how Brady uses them, and a lot of that may depend on the progress of Coleman.

The Bills do have high hopes for WR Curtis Samuel, signed in March and formerly with Washington. He’s got burner speed and can play RB as well, but he’s battling a turf toe injury. He’s expected to start in the opener against the Arizona Cardinals September 8th. Mack Hollins is also a newcomer with size (6-4, 221 lb.), speed and experience.

In general terms, the Bills O-line should be decent, if not better.

Rookie RB Ray Davis (4th rd Kentucky) is one of the pre season’s surprises, but not to anyone who’s seen him play in college. He’s really a strong runner who breaks tackles, yet has soft hands as a receiver out of the backfield. He may push starter James Cook for playing time, if Cook continues dropping TD passes. If nothing else, they’re a nice compliment to each other.

Defense is the real question mark, and HC Sean McDermott has made it official Bobby Babich is THE DC. Do everything LB Matt Milano is out – again – for most of the season although he could be back in December as we mentioned. Almost opening day and we don’t know for sure who the starting safeties are. Rookie Cole Bishop may eventually get that job but he’s missed the entire preseason. Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin are likely for now, and just a couple days ago Beane signed free agent S Lewis Cine, who is on the PS for now. Cine was a former 1st round Vikings pick just two years ago and battled injuries. Apparently he’s healthy now so we’ll see. CB is pretty solid imo with Christian Benford and Rasul Douglass, and Taron Johnson (quad injury?) the NB. Kaiir Elam. Remember him? Had an outstanding preseason.

Great to see former UB LB Joe Andreessen make the team as an undrafted FA, but he won’t play much barring injuries.

Special teams is another concern. Kicker Tyler Bass seems to be in a mental slump, but the Bills are sticking with him – for now.

The D-Line? Reports that Von Miller is “much improved”, to me, are meaningless until we see it.

The Bills need a breakout season from Greg Rousseau, and Ed Oliver needs to remain dominant inside. Rookie DT DeWayne Carter (3rd rd Duke) is going to be a part of the rotation.

The bottom line here is obvious. Josh Allen has to stay healthy and has to be great. His physical style will change some, but not with a game on the line. He’s now 28, but If its 4th and goal at the two late in a game, my $ is on JA to push it in there.

The oddsmakers have lost some confidence in the Bills, if that means anything. ESPN BET has the Chiefs at +500 to win the SB, which would be a record third in a row if KC pulls it off.

The Bills are tied for 6th with Houston at +1600, with the Jets 9th and Miami 10th. The Patriots aren’t a factor.

Despite the pessimism and uncertainty, I still think the Bills can win the AFC East for a 5th straight year – IF – #17 stays healthy. I still believe Sean McDermott is an excellent coach who’s culture change is real. It matters.

Yes, the schedule is brutal, but just get into the dance, and ANYTHING can happen.

Editor’s babble: We are so happy to have Ed Kilgore back in the saddle and contributing to our blog. You can also find Ed on Xwitter @Kilgore2Ed.