BuffaloFAMBase Pick 6 – March Edition

Getting a RD4 instead of a RD3 pick for Tremaine Edmunds was a heartbreak for BillsMafia, but not to worry; the Championship window is wide open for Brandon Beane and Company. I like doing “Pick Sixes” especially before Free Agency reduces the positional needs, but later into March, it also helps looking at options when you do mock drafts.

I heartily recommend using the BuffaloFAMBase Big Board on FanSpeak to simulate the draft. Why? I take notes on every player (I’ve let you peek at the beginnings of them), and track every visit the Bills credentialed scouts take. I take note of Combine visits (the ones in chartreuse to the right of current 40 times). The higher the number, the more attention they’ve received. Notice that Beane is focusing on 3 conferences –Big10, SEC, and ACC, with some notable exceptions (Yale, Texas, Houston, Oregon, Baylor, Utah, Troy, Holy Cross, and FAU).

ROUND 1#28 —FAST RECEIVER WHO CAN DEVELOP INTO A WR-1; POSSIBLY AN EFFECTIVE DT3

Judging from all the combine visits, Beane is getting his fast receiver here, with the upside and field-stretching ability. The SEC receivers faced better defenses than Texas (and received triple the scouting visits), but Xavier Worthy’s sheer speed/route-running and AD Mitchell’s size, his highest 18.6 ypc vs AP-ranked teams, and lowest drop rate might keep them in the conversation. Nitpicking here, but I like the idea of taking Shakir out of the return game, and Mitchell didn’t do that in college. Ladd McConkey did. Perhaps more importantly, given that Gabe did this well: McConkey’s downfield blocking is the best of the 4 interviewed WRs here —even better than Gabe’s was, in my opinion. Xavier Legette was the most dominant in a scouted game, but of the four WRs, I liked his interview least.

TRADE UP FROM RD2 OR TRADE DOWN FROM RD1 FOR ONE OF THESE PLUS THAT RE-ACQUIRED THIRD-ROUNDER:

Beane has at least considered trades, judging from the scout visits here. Beane was Personnel at CAR when Kris Jenkins Sr. was drafted RD2 in 2001, and his son wasn’t named “The Mutant”, or on Feldman’s Freaks list for nothing. Kamren Kinchens, the safety who had the most eyeballs looking at him this year, is a nice option if the Bills somehow don’t select a free agent at Safety (I expect they will). Braden Fiske blew away the Combine, and (depending on FA) you’d like a DT3T-EDGE from the top 5 (Murphy, Dorlus, Newton, Fiske, Jenkins). Fiske had a solo tackle, sack, and TFL in a scouted game vs Pitt. Trey Benson, first in the ACC in yards per carry and forcing an astonishing FBS-leading 0.51 missed tackles per attempt, the highest mark in college football in at least 10 years. That stat got Singletary here. Benson is one beefy complementary back for James Cook, but I do prefer RD3 Estime’s receiving ability more. The Bills had a Combine meeting with OT Patrick Paul, a man-mountain who they like for upside, although fellow mountains VanDemark (6-7, 307, 5.27) and Doyle (6-8, 320, 5.12) have impressed in their limited starts at camp. An intriguing option is Ricky Pearsall, who has played all three WR positions and played with Shorter on the Gators. Pearsall had special-teams experience (on the kick return, kick coverage, punt return, and punt coverage units), and was the leading receiver on both scouted games, Utah and SCAR, outpointing Legette in that one with double the catches (10-166-16.6-1 TD). Pearsall’s multiple ways of helping the Bills allows you to take Worthy or Mitchell early despite their special teams experience. A 2-WR haul in RD1-2 is not out of the question; draft your bigger one first and Pearsall second (if my guy Roman Wilson isn’t around).

ROUND2#60 — LOOKS LIKE DEFENSE:

The most scouts’ attention among RD2 prospects was at Penn State (connections galore between Dave Aranda and Manny Diaz, both in McDermott’s “inner circle”). In my opinion, PSU’s Adisa Isaac is one of 5 EDGEs who are a perfect a fit for this defense (Isaac, Chop, Verse, Jalyx, Cedric Johnson, and Jaylen Harrell), along with some great RD7-UDFAs, and is taller, longer, and faster than the scouted ones. Maason Smith is a great choice with the Bills’ LSU ties as thick as they are (Manny Diaz, Reid Ferguson, Fournette, Tre White, DJ Mangas, Joe Brady). I like him at DT3T platooning with Ed Oliver, an ideal complement providing heft when needed. Smith is 25 lbs. heavier, but only Oliver would beat Maason in a foot race. I’m looking to replace production in a big way up the gut, and my list is short (Leonard Taylor, Tyler Davis, Braden Fiske, Maason Smith, Johnny Newton, and Keith Randolph Jr.). If you passed on Patrick Paul earlier, and think you need an OT in training, it’s Amegadjie, who’s actually a better blocker, but against lesser competition. The fundamentals –and mentals– are there. Ruke Orhorhoro is bigger and a tad slower than Isaac, and I like some other ACC prospects more. Remember the LSU ties, especially to Tre White when you talk about Manny Diaz’s Kalen King. He was third in the country with 21 pass breakups in 2022, and King, Lassiter (RD1) DeJean (RD1), and Mike Sainristil (a RD2 possibility) received the most eyeballs among the fastest 30 draftables at corner. Tez Walker had a so-so Combine that will drop him, but he’s a good guess for that field-stretcher. Top-five time in the forty combined with great interview, multiplied by top-four wingspan (Johnny Wilson, Brian Thomas Jr., Bub Means, Walker). A disadvantage is that he’s only had 10 catches vs AP-ranked teams over 2 years.

ROUND 3 — IF RE-ACQUIRED BY TRADE:

Beane doesn’t get this pick unless he makes some moves, as the Tremaine Edmunds comp is a RD4, not where it should be. I think it’s too early for CB or RT here, and Safety Cole Bishop hasn’t received his 30-visit as of this writing, so Estime, Davis, and Wilson remain for me at the moment. Audric Estime would be a dream pick, especially if DT has been addressed at least once in FA or RD1-2. Estime (“EST-im-may”) is fourth-heaviest and second-fastest of the nine RBs who had scouts at more than 2 games, and one of 3 to get a Combine formal meeting (Braelon Allen, Estime, and Frank Gore Jr). Estime’s receiving and blocking are better than Allen’s, but Day 3 pick Gore is actually very impressive at both skills, should you decide to go later at RB. Would Johnny Wilson even get on the field in Year 1? Justin Shorter (6-4, 229, 4.55) and Tyrell Shavers (6’6″, 210, 4.59) are similar players. Maybe I’d look at DT3T-EDGE DeWayne Carter here instead (#117 on latest BFB BB). He was ACC’s top returning leader in pressures for defensive linemen, and has that Bills Insider connection (Manny Diaz previously served as the DC at Penn State from 2022-23 and HC of Duke in 2023-24), and certainly pull the lever if he drops within maneuverable range in RD4.

ROUND 4A#129, ROUND 4B#133 (TAKE TWO):

The Bills scouted 14 LBs more than once. Of these, the fastest six (Michael Barrett, Jacobs, Edgerrin Cooper, Junior Colson, Trevin Wallace,
Steele Chambers) are all SEC or Big10. All current Bills LBs run faster than 4.61, except Milano. Curtis Jacobs would be a surprise seeing we don’t currently need a LB, except Jacobs combines the best traits of each current Bills backer, and he got a Combine meeting. I like Colson and EDGE-OLB Edgerrin Cooper, but both are too early (RD2?) to consider. Speaking of combine visits, don’t forget about EDGE Javon Solomon of Troy. He leads all NCAA players in sacks and TFLs, can drop into coverage readily, and, while he’s not even 6-1, he has a 80″ wingspan to keep OTs at bay. Contrast that physique with Xavier Thomas‘s 78″ wingspan at 6-4. Thomas is a bit more of a project who hasn’t the production you’d expect in 61 games, but he has excellent hands and needs two plans: a nuitrition plan and a pass-rush arsenal. Beane seems to like ACC rushers, though. My add-ons in this round would be Tanor Bortolini and Zak Zinter, both of whom could play Guard or Center

ROUND 5A#143 (Bates pick): DO YOU HAVE YOUR HOGMOLLIES YET? DON’T FORGET THE OL AND DL!

Everyone forgets my 5-Hogmolly rule until they play the Chiefs. A Center to stash on the practice squad might be in order on Day Three. You have acquired and re-signed Connor McGovern LG OC, and UDFA Alec Anderson OC RG to think about. Isaiah Adams‘ hometown is pretty much across the bridge, and he took reps at Center at the Senior Bowl. Drake Nugent is getting planty of eye time by Bills scouts. Of my five best pass-blocking Guard-Center Dudes (Sedrick Van Pran, Tanor Bortolini, Nugent, Zak Zinter, Javion Cohen), Van Pran in RD2 and Nugent here have the best pass-run balance. Nugent has the 2nd-highest offensive PFF grade among all FBS Centers at 81.8 and the 4th-highest run blocking grade at 79.2 in 2023. He has allowed 0 sacks across 197 pass blocking snaps, Samesies in 2022: 993 pass blocking snaps, 0 sacks, 2 QB hits. I like CB Renardo Green if the Bills want to improve their man skills and combat incessant 3rd- and 4th-down conversions by certain red teams. He’s 2nd in the FBS in PBUs in the late downs. CB FS Johnny Dixon is also worth mentioning here, as he performed extremely well in front of Bills scouts, and has the Penn State connection. NCB Jarrian Jones could drop, which would be nice. His was the best interview I listened to of all the corners. I saved IDL Gabe Hall for last but not least. McDermott will be getting an earful about Hall from buddy Dave Aranda (Carolina, then LSU DC, now Baylor HC), and we did well with LB Terrel Bernard, our last Baylor selection (2022: Rd 3, Pk 89). Scouts watched Hall and T’Vondre Sweat in the same game, and it’s a fun matchup. Hall gets the nod over Sweat in terms of versatility, length, and production…But you could take both.

ROUND 5B#159, RD5C#162 (TAKE TWO):

Anaias Smith is a nice RD5 complementary playmaker at several positions (WRS, RBC, KR, PR). Pronounced “an-EYE-ess”, Smith put up an above-average 5-78-15.6 stat line plus did both KR, PR in a scouted 27-10 win at Auburn. He’s tied for 3rd-fastest Bills-scouted returner in the draft (McConkey, Benson, Legette, Smith, and Means). He takes Shakir off of return duty, and that needs to be a factor, what with other returners no longer playing for the Bills. If you kept passing on DT3T, take Keith Randolph Jr. right now and end the agony. He’ll fit right into the DL room–fun, athletic (basketball in HS), and held his own vs Michigan and Blake Corum. In a scouted victory over MN, Randolph logged 4 solos and a TFL . Bub Means could be moving up to RD5A or even RD3 as teams get a load of his upside, size, and production. His upside is WR#1 —watch this collection of Xwitter clips. Justin Egboigbe is the poster child for “plumber has the right tools but your plumbing still has low pressure”. Injured after just 4 games in 2022, he had surgery (the Bills’ own DJ Dale was one of the guys who stepped up in his absence). The draft’s 3rd-fastest IDL needs time and good coaching-up to put it all together to amp up his pressures, and perhaps the Bills need their guy in 2024. Ray Davis is another pick which wouldn’t make me excited. He’s too much like James Cook –same size, receiving chops. I’d need an Estime-Corum pick to get off my La-Z-Boy. Bills scouted a game at Vandy Week 4, where Ray helped to tie Kentucky’s school record for first-quarter points, but cooled off to an ultimately-average showing (17 for 78, 4.6 YPC, 2 TD) –and fumbled once. Delmar Glaze would be a sneaky-good pick with the RD5B, because you said goodbye to Rick Bates. Glaze plays all five pretty well, can pull well from the IOL, and has a nice level of nasty. Do you like Glaze on your Pancake?

ROUND 6A#192, RD6B#198, RD6B#206 (TAKE THREE): TIME TO ROUND OUT YOUR ROSTER.

It’s now time to look at developmental upside, great interviews, wrestlers, and players you like who have somehow fallen due to injury or lack of fit. Developmental upside describes Jalyx Hunt, who had a Combine meeting with the Bills, as did FS Malik Mustapha from Wake Forest. Great interview describes J.D. Bertrand, the Notre Dame ILB who killed both his interview and his scouted game. He led the ND defense w 9 tackles, 5 solo, 1 sack, and 1.5 TFL in the scouted game vs Louisville,. What’s more, Brendan Rowe, Director of Football Operations and Lake Dawson, Senior Executive, are both Golden Domers. Need a Wrestler like Kyle Williams? That’s Iowa’s DT1T DT3T Logan Lee, who needs sand in the pants but had a higher RAS than Byron Murphy. Lee always ran his summer conditioning with linebackers, not the linemen. Community-minded like Kyle Williams, Lee was nominated for the Allstate AFCA Good Works Team. His motor never quits running; Lee’s so fit that he’s chasing the ball regardless of how far downfield he needs to go. Speaking of RAS (9.65) as well as upside, I like Cedric Johnson at EDGE if the Bills are still looking by Day 3, April 27. He may catch the eye of GMs putting a lot of stock into the Underwear Olympics, but I just like his play. Of the top 12 EDGEs in Pressures, Johnson’s second to Verse in speed, putting him in the Groot-Floyd stratosphere. Walter Rouse is only here in the 6th due to injury. He’s one of my 15 best pass-blocking OTs (in an article I haven’t written yet). Oklahoma has been in the top 5 OLs in Yards Before Contact Per Rush in 2022 and ’23.

ROUND 7#246: LATE-ROUND GEMS, ALL.

If for some obtuse reason you didn’t take Logan Lee or get a Sweat in FA or earlier in the draft, go after Evan Anderson from FAU, Singletary’s school. Despite only one credentialed scout visit to FAU, I am impressed by his lateral movement, quickness, and ability to gum up more than one gap inside. Here are four plays to watch so you can see it for yourself. I still want DaQuan back for his 11th season, though. When I was watching Delmar Glaze at Maryland, it was hard to miss CB FS ST Ja’Quan Sheppard. He played patiently behind Sauce Gardner, but got his turn as a senior. Sam Teets from Sports Talk says Sheppard is “rarely penalized, tall frame with a lean build, arm length will surpass NFL thresholds, punches in press are timed and placed well, comfortable working in press-man, heavy hitter at times in press, jams and stunts routes at the LOS, gives nothing on outside releases, compresses outside releases along the sideline, comfortable playing with his back to the football, length shows up at the catch point”. That sounds like a great counterpoint to Kaiir Elam. No visits recorded for Jalen Coker of Holy Cross –an opponent of McDermott’s William & Mary– but he’s the NCAA leader in receiving touchdowns, so you’re starting wih a high ceiling on the practice squad. If I’m filling my practice squad, I like Jarrett Kingston of USC. He had the 3rd-highest RAS among Guards (9.91), and RAS has meant something in the last 2 years to Bills brass, especially when they’re hogmollies. If forced, I will learn to like Miyan Williams. He’s pretty impressive on the field, can catch the ball, and of the 11 RBs seen more than once at live games, he’s 2nd in Bills visits to Blake Corum, 3rd in heft to Braelon Allen and Audric Estime, and 6th in 40 time. However, he’s 2nd to last in career points (Daijun Edwards) , and 4th-worst in pass blocking (Braelon Allen, Jase McClellan, Will Shipley). Wonderful smile, but not the sharpest interview (and I have low standards for running backs –see Marshawn Lynch and James Cook).

Editor’s babble: These “Pick Six” articles by Dean Kindig are the best for sorting through all the complicated layers of this upcoming NFL Draft for casual Bills fans and ‘fanalysts’ alike. You can also find Dean on Xwitter @TCBILLS_Astro.