Saturday, January 17th at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado.
Weather: 40 and sunny
Latest line: Bills +1.5, over/under 45.5
Latest week: won outright (13-5), won vs the spread (9-9), won the over/under (12-6).
24 teams will be sitting at home watching Josh Allen play in Denver. Given the slew of injuries that the Bills have faced this season, I’m grateful to be in the elite eight. Welcome back Ed Oliver! Can Buffalo survive Denver and advance to the NFL’s Final Four?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Bo Nix was not your typical NFL Rookie QB. All that high level college experience gave him a playoff caliber floor from the get-go. Two for two on making the playoffs, and a #1 seed to boot. What is his ceiling? To be determined. It often gets lost in the frustration of falling short of the Super Bowl, but playoff Josh is even better than regular season Josh. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Rookie RJ Harvey was the Broncos next man up when J.K. Dobbins went on IR; his 3.7 yards per carry is not replacing Dobbin’s 5.0. Nix is an above average running QB. James Cook was the NFL’s best running back this season by any metric, and then there’s Josh Allen. The gap in this matchup is HUGE for a Divisional Round Playoff Game. Advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
Note to our GM-you can put together a pretty good WR room with day two (Courtland Sutton) and day 3 (Troy Franklin) picks; but you have to buy that lottery ticket to have a chance. RJ Harvey has been more impressive as a receiver than as a rusher. The Broncos TEs have not produced. Despite the injuries, the Bills current WR situation with Cooks, Shakir, and Coleman holds more potential than we have seen from this year’s team so far. Ty Johnson will be missed. My hunch is a big game for Dalton Kincaid. Advantage Bills.
Offensive Line:
Two of the best lines in the NFL are showcased in this playoff matchup. Give the Broncos a high-end TE and a better RB next draft and they could be really scary. If you are stressing about this week’s game, I suggest you look at the weight discrepancies between our OL and the Broncos front seven. Even.
Run Defense:
We don’t see a lot of 3-4 defenses anymore. Last week the Bills and James Cook were contained by the #1 rushing defense, but it opened up the passing game. I expect a more productive week for James Cook against the #2 statistical rushing defense. The recent Bills defend the run much better than the season long Bills, and the Broncos aren’t as capable of taking advantage of this area of concern. Advantage Broncos.
Pass Defense:
It starts with the pass rush for the Broncos. The All-Time team sack record is held by a pretty memorable squad… the 1984 Chicago Bears! #2 all-time? The 2025 Denver Broncos. And they have the best CB in the NFL in Patrick Surtain II. Should be good for the checkmark, right? But somehow, despite middle of the pack sack numbers, no team in the NFL allowed fewer passing yards this season than our Buffalo Bills. Even.
Special Teams:
Lutz over Prater, Mims over Shakir, Ray Davis over Tyler Badie. I think the Bills have better coverage units, but in the absence of Tyrell Shavers, it might be too close to call. Advantage Broncos.
Coaching:
Sean Payton’s career winning percentage: .623. Sean McDermott’s career winning percentage: .648. There are plenty of internet opinions that suggest winning one Super Bowl gives a coach a Golden Ticket for life, but I strongly disagree. Not many Head coaches are successful enough to rack up 100 wins with the same franchise. I can’t find a name on that list whose character is any higher than Sean McDermott’s. For today’s game, Even.
Intangibles:
Denver’s rest and health are tangible; but a sneaky edge to Buffalo with “altitude experience” from Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, and Matt Prater.
The Forecast:
Bills 24 Broncos 20.
It’s a good matchup for the Bills running game and three headed TE…back to Houston for third time’s a charm? Or back to Foxboro to face public enemy #1?
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
I’ll be on the 90 returning from the Sabres’ game, working on a pepperoni slice, relying on Chris Brown and Eric Wood.
Beer:
Once I get home, a cold New Belgium Fat Tire Ale will be waiting for me.
Music:
Since I keep having their upcoming Key Bank Center Concert burned into my brain from the ads on the hockey boards, some Rascal Flatts:
- Prayin’ For Daylight…their debut single.
- I Miss Mayberry… but WNY still exhibits those values!
- Bless The Broken Road….very few straight paths in life or football.
- Life Is A Highway…thanks to CARS, a cross generational favorite.
In the middle of a long cold January, let’s keep the dream alive!
Editor’s babble: We are grateful for Joe Reagan’s contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on X @joer869.
BuffaloFAMbase.com is sponsored by 26 Shirts
Every Monday, we launch a two-week campaign of a new Buffalo-themed t-shirt design. Every purchase results in a donation to a local family in need. After the campaign ends, the shirt is typically retired. A new design is released, and a new family benefits from your fandom!
