Last Sunday’s victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars was a perfect encapsulation of just what type of year it has been for the Buffalo Bills this season — pure chaos.
With injuries continuing to mount and faced with the challenge of being road warriors in the midst of adversity, head coach Sean McDermott’s squad rose to the occasion, ceasing to flinch in the most critical of moments en route to capturing the first playoff victory on the road for Buffalo since 1992 and advancing to the AFC divisional round for a sixth-straight season.
Now, the question remains — can the Bills make it back to the AFC Championship once again?
Thanks to a heroic performance by quarterback Josh Allen against Jacksonville, which was capped off by a go-ahead, goal-to-go plunge into the end zone by the reigning MVP with just over a minute left in the 4th quarter last week, Buffalo will now at least have the opportunity to do just that when they travel to take on the AFC’s top-seeded Denver Broncos this Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High.
Injuries be damned, McDermott expects his guys to be ready to lay it on the line come game time.
“Every year there’s injuries. You expect the injuries. You know it is a part of the game, and the amount we’ve had this year — it’s significant. But . . . what I need to focus on, (and) what we need to focus on is what’s right in front of us today. And, that’s handling the things that we can handle and control what we can control,” McDermott said when speaking to the media earlier in the week.
“It’s next man up. That’s, you know, pretty stone cold what it is and what has to happen here for us in (Denver).”
Facing an AFC West opponent in the divisional round isn’t unfamiliar territory for McDermott and company, with losses to the Kansas City Chiefs coming in said round in 2021 and 2023.
And although the opponent — Denver (14-3 OVR, 5-1 AFCW) — is different, the challenge of hitting the road and entering a hostile environment in this round is also nothing new.
But, will the outcome be?
The Bills (13-5 OVR, 4-2 AFCE) have already knocked the 33-year-old road playoff victory monkey off their back, so they might as well keep the trend going of righting the wrongs of past Januarys.
“It’s going to be fun. You know, it’s going to be a tough test for us, but we got the guys to do it,” Buffalo cornerback Tre’Davious White said when speaking to reporters on Tuesday.
“A lot of guys have been in this game for years and, you know, we know where the weaknesses and the strengths are (on our team and in this scheme). But, we’re just attacking and we’re just toeing that line (of aggressiveness), being able to make the plays when our number is called and that’s what guys are doing right now . . . that’s the mentality we adapted — kind of like road warriors. Going on the road . . . we believe in each other. We got the guys in the building to do it, and we’re firm believers in that.”
In order to get past the Broncos and reach back-to-back AFC championships, though, the Bills will need to be more buttoned up than they were just one week ago, particularly when it comes to taking care of the ball.
While Buffalo eventually won the turnover battle in the wildcard round, putting the ball in harm’s way in any possible way, shape, or form against the Broncos could be a catastrophic blow to Buffalo’s chances of victory.
Despite Denver’s top-ranked unit, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s group averaged just 0.8 turnovers forced per game all season according to TeamRankings.com, so any offensive mishaps or special teams blunders that might change that luck and give the ball away while allowing the Broncos’ offense more opportunities won’t be a recipe for success, especially considering how tough Denver’s defense has been in spite of their lack of forced turnovers.
Instead, quarterback Josh Allen and his fellow offensive teammates will need to play a calculated style of game with an emphasis on consistently moving the chains by whatever means necessary, avoiding negative plays in the dropback game, and capitalizing on any and all scoring opportunities as the Broncos are allowing just the third-lowest points per game (18.3 PPG) in the league behind only the Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans.
With Buffalo now being down three wide receivers in Gabe Davis (knee/IR), Tyrell Shavers (knee/IR), and Joshua Palmer (ankle/IR), the team will likely try to once again get running back James Cook going on the ground despite failing to do so against the Jaguars last weekend.
Running back Ty Johnson, who is listed as questionable with his ankle injury, might also figure into the equation should he be able to suit up after being held out last Sunday.
Denver ranks second in the league in rush defense behind only Jacksonville, though, allowing just 91.1 yards per game this season, so is it really plausible to think Buffalo can “cook” in the running game this time around?
Buffalo’s lead running back, who had 120 rushing yards and one touchdown on 23 carries in the wildcard victory over the Broncos last season, will surely want the chance at a repeat performance.
The offensive line would too, but they know it’ll take a great performance from them up front in order to do so.
“They’ve got great players — interior and their edge guys. I mean, it’s just a great defense, great scheme. We are familiar with these guys from last year. (It’s a) very similar group. So, it’s going to be a tremendous challenge for us. I think that you’re able to kind of look at that film (from last year) and understand how they’re going to play blocks, (and) how they’re going to rush, but each game is going to be a little bit different,” Bills’ offensive guard David Edwards said this week.
“When you’re on the road and you can focus on each other and block out the noise, and do it together — I think that’s always the mentality . . . we know that Denver is going to be a tremendous challenge. It’s going to be loud. It’s going to be a great atmosphere, and that’s what we love. So, let’s just go out there, have fun, and try to play to the best of our ability.”
As for the aforementioned receiving core, the Bills will still need to get production from that spot even with their options now extremely limited.
And while the team may be getting Curtis Samuel, who is also listed as questionable, back from injured reserve, the bulk of that production will likely have to come in the form of short-to-intermediate targets to Khalil Shakir and more deep shots to Brandin Cooks, who has emerged as a real threat for Buffalo as of late, raking in seven receptions on 11 targets for 169 yards in his past two games alone.
The 12-year wideout has been fortunate enough to advance to the championship round and beyond twice in his career (2017 and 2018), but has yet to capture a Super Bowl title.
With that in mind, the longtime veteran isn’t taking this opportunity for granted, and he knows what he and his teammates must do in order to be successful against one of the NFL’s best defenses this weekend.
“(We’ve) got guys that (have) been playing in the league for a while, as well, you know? You got ‘Cole (Hardman), you got Curtis (Samuel), and Shakir. I think, at the end of the day, we hear the noise. But, all we can do is focus on our job, focus on the task at hand, and be the best that we can possibly be for this team and let everything else take care of itself,” Cooks said this week.
“I’m just being present right now, you know? Where my feet are. I really haven’t thought about (anything else). I’m so in the moment right now, (and) blessed to be able to be playing in January. I’m just focused on the task at hand right now.”
Much like Buffalo’s offense, the Bills’ defense has been battling the injury bug all season long as well, and that unfortunate trend didn’t stop this past week as the team lost safety Jordan Poyer to a reaggravation of a hamstring injury that he suffered a few weeks ago against Cleveland.
Poyer is listed as week-to-week and was subsequently ruled out against Denver. Rookie Jordan Hancock or veteran Cam Lewis will start in his place.
There was, however, a sliver of hope in regards to the injury front as defensive tackle Ed Oliver (listed as questionable) also had his 21-day practice window opened up this week along with Curtis Samuel after the former first-round pick had been on injured reserve since suffering a torn bicep against the Carolina Panthers back in Week 8.
If Oliver is activated to the 53-man roster prior to Saturday and able to return, it’d certainly be a boost to a defensive line that has been much maligned this season.
Seeing his brothers go to battle on the field each week without him has been tough, but the seven-year veteran feels rejuvenated, mentioning how he has gained a new perspective on the game and life in general.
Cautiously optimistic about his chances of playing, the Houston native is just happy about the chance to be out there with his teammates after a near three-month layoff.
“It’s just (been) a long time coming (to this point). I kind of just stayed the course even when the tunnel seemed dark and the light at the end of the tunnel seemed so far away. Rehab was kind of stagnant at one point, you know, (I) really couldn’t do much — my arm was in a cast . . . I just came a long way,” Oliver, who has 12 tackles, seven tackles for loss, five quarterback hits, three sacks, and one forced fumble in just three games played this season, said on Tuesday.
“I think I did a good job of kind of staying in semi-good shape and just keeping a good football mind about myself. So, I’ve got the time that I’ve got (to play now), and I’m happy to have that . . . we’ll see — I’m optimistic. I’m excited.”
With or without Oliver, the Bills will be faced with the challenge of slowing down a Broncos offense that is led by second-year quarterback Bo Nix, who has thrown for 3,931 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on top of rushing for 356 yards and five touchdowns on 83 carries.
Nix’s top targets include wide receivers Courtland Sutton (74 receptions-1,017 yards-7 touchdowns), Troy Franklin (65 receptions-709 yards-6 touchdowns), and Pat Bryant (31 receptions-378 yards-1 touchdown), as well as tight end Evan Engram (50 receptions-461 yards-1 touchdown) and running back R.J. Harvey (47 receptions-356 yards-5 touchdowns).
Meanwhile, Denver had been led by running back J.K. Dobbins on the ground (153 carries-772 yards-4 touchdowns) for most of the season, but the former second-round pick out of Ohio State suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10.
Since then, the previously mentioned Harvey (146 carries-540 yards-7 touchdowns) has been the lead-back for the Broncos, but with inconsistent results.
Denver, who ranked in the top-10 with Dobbins, is just 21st in the league in yards per carry (4.0) as a team since Week 11 with Harvey accounting for just 326 yards on 96 carries for a measly 3.4-yard average.
As for the opposite side of the ball, Denver’s defense is certainly a force to be reckoned with as evidenced by the previously discussed statistics involving their stout run defense and ability to limit points throughout the season, not to mention their league-leading 68 sacks — which is 11 more than any other team in the league and 21 more than any other team remaining in the playoffs — but there is, however, one caveat.
Since Week 11, much like their offense, the Broncos haven’t been exactly the same on defense.
According to SūmerSports, Denver is just 17th in EPA/play and 24th in EPA/run. On top of that, in the three games in which the Broncos faced the top-three offenses they had all season (Colts, Cowboys, Jaguars), the AFC’s top-seeded team surrendered 29 points, 24 points, and 34 points, respectively. They also allowed over 100 yards rushing in two of those games (167 vs. IND, 108 vs. DAL).
With that said, it’s clear to see that there are some definite chinks in the armor of Buffalo’s upcoming opponent.
It will ultimately come down to whether or not the Bills can deliver the right combination of jabs to eventually land a fatal blow and come out on top.
“They’ve got some absolute studs over there (in Denver). Obviously, they rush the passer extremely well, (and the) interior — they’re, again, some big stout guys that can really push the pocket, and they can stop the run. In the backend, too, (they have) a guy like Pat Surtain, who was Defensive Player of the Year last year — he’s an absolutely fantastic football player. So, yeah. We’re going to have our hands full of just making sure that we’re putting in the right stuff, understanding the gameplan, getting to the right checks, getting to the right calls, executing, and playing for each other,” Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen said.
“We can’t give them any help. That’s a good team over there, and any time you’re facing a really good defense you’ve got to go out there and execute and do your part.”
Kickoff between the Broncos and the Bills is slated for 4:30 p.m. ET in Denver, Colorado. The game will be broadcast on CBS.
The winner will advance to the AFC Championship next Sunday.
Editor’s babble: This is going to be a wild one. Many thanks to John Green for his contributions to our blog. You can also find John on X @JGreen_PRsports.
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