Sunday December 28, 4:25 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
Weather: 40s and RAIN.
Latest line: Bills-1.5, over/under 44.5
Latest week: won outright (11-4), lost vs the point spread (7-8), lost the over/under (9-6)
Will the 2025 Buffalo Bills pattern hold this week? Favored by more than a TD? Uh-oh. Facing the “toughest parts” of the schedule? 6-1, and undefeated at home. (I counted loss #1 to the Patriots in the first category). Mother Nature is offering the worst possible weather for the contest…15-41 vs the Colts on 11/21/21 in a cold steady rain had to be my worst day ever in The Ralph’s history. Who wants it more today?!
The Breakdown:
QB:
Jalen Hurts might be the hardest QB to slot in the NFL, but since 2014 the only active QBs to win a Super Bowl are Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts. The Eagles tush push is even better than ours. Allen and Hurts are averaging around 28 passing attempts each per game, while league leaders Nix and Prescott average almost 37 per game. The passing numbers path to a repeat Josh Allen MVP appears impassible, the rushing TDs and the eye test keep that honor on the table. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Us old timers will tell you there wasn’t much to “Talk Proud” about in regard to the 1970s Bills, but there was great pride in OJ Simpson’s rushing titles. We will also lament that while that was happening, the ‘Aud’ was home to Championship Caliber NBA and NHL teams. The weather looks good for James Cook to finally bring another one home. The Eagles don’t take a back seat to many teams with Barkley and Hurts, but they do to Buffalo and Baltimore. Did anyone have Buffalo leading the NFL in rushing preseason? Advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
Only the weather favors Buffalo here, Six foot 170-pound Devonta Smith has missed five games in his five-year career. Josh Palmer and Dalton Kincaid have missed a combined nine games this season already. A healthy Dallas Goedert edges the banged-up Bills 3 headed TE. And oh yeah, AJ Brown. Huge advantage Eagles.
Offensive Line:
The Eagles OL was a driving force in two Super Bowl wins, but “past peak” is a fair assessment, and RT Lane Johnson will miss the game. Surely this Bills OL deserves a catchy nickname a la the 70s “The Electric Company”. Slight advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
The Bills obviously struggle to stop the run, and especially chunk runs. The Eagles struggles against the run are significant but more under the radar. It’s an interesting scheme matchup with a 4-2-5 against a 3-4; maybe the lesson here is that a 4-3 works best in the 2025 NFL? With Nakobe Dean I would give the Eagles an edge, but he is out. Even.
Pass Defense:
The Bills are #1 in fewest passing yards allowed, the Eagles are #5, with “little need to throw against them” in the middle. Tre White and Cole Bishop are as pleasant surprises as our WRs are disappointments. Maybe the pass rush would tip the scales to Philly on a dry field, but today in OP, Even.
Special Teams:
Get well soon Matt Prater. Unfortunately, in a tight contest, Elliot over Badgely is a bigger deal than Ray Davis over Will Shipley. Advantage Eagles.
Coaching:
Nick Sirianni has a Super Bowl ring, but so does Don McCafferty. Hall of Famers on defense make coaches look good. Sean McDermott is putting up elite regular season winning percentages but hasn’t made it to the Super Bowl. An elite veteran coordinator like Vic Fangio or Brian Daboll might get McDermott to the promised land. Both head coaches face extremely demanding fan bases. Even.
Intangibles:
Three hours of cold rain is VERY tangible. The Eagles have little to play for in the standings.
The Forecast:
Bills 24 Eagles 20
Home field, incentives, and nasty weather team up for a victory.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
If anyone has a Cheesesteak recommendation in Rochester, pass it along ASAP! I prefer Cheese whiz, but the spots near me all seem to use provolone (acceptable) or worse.
Beer:
Have you ever tried a Chocolate Milk Stout? Troegs (rhymes with rogues) Brewery is literally on the campus of Hershey Park, and their Grand Cacao is outstanding! Maybe even better is Lancaster Brewing’s Double Chocolate Milk Stout, but their distribution is more limited.
Music:
Some good ole Philly Soul from who else but the O’Jays!
- Used to be My Girl.
- I Love Music.
- The Backstabbers.
- Love Train.
It’s a coin flip today…a very slippery coin.
Editor’s babble: Chocolate milk beer? Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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