Sunday, December 21st at 1 p.m. ET.
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, Ohio.
Weather: mid 30s, peeks of sunshine.
Latest line: Bills-10.5, over/under 41.5
Last week: Won outright (10-4), won against the point spread (7-7), lost the over/under (9-5)
“Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills”. Last Sunday might have been the best embodiment of that Chris Berman quote since the 90s. Steamrolling the Patriots and whiny Vrabel in the second half was priceless. Buffalo still needs help to win the division, but I am extremely bullish on an AFC Wild Card as the Conference’s Super Bowl representative. Do focus on staying ahead of the Houston Texans; the best-case scenario of #7 Houston at #6 Buffalo in the AFC Championship game is not far-fetched. One at a time before then, with the 3-11 Cleveland Browns up first. Will the Bills take care of business in the Lake Erie Bowl?
The Breakdown:
QB:
In the MVP race, “down the stretch they come”. It’s Stafford and Maye neck and neck on the rail, but here comes Secretariat Josh Allen closing like a freight train. I suspect Josh wins by several lengths going away. The comeback wins over Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and New England are already more than enough to overcome statistics. Shedeur Sanders has demonstrated a much higher floor than a 5th round draft pick, but whether his ceiling approaches first round levels is unknown. After Mahomes, Mayfield, Rogers, Burrow, and Maye, maybe a little less stress this week. Huge advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Quinshon Judkins is heading for a 1000-yard rookie season, but his yards per carry is less impressive than the total. He is not a threat to break off another long run against the Bills defense. James Cook needs 89 yards to move into #3 all time on the Bills single season rushing list; only OJ in 1973 and 1975 posted better. Shedeur is mobile, but not a running QB per se. Josh Allen is the best running QB we’ve ever seen. Huge advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
If you are one of many Bills fans frustrated by our WR situation, take a moment to put yourself in a Brown’s fans shoes. The highest draft pick Cleveland has spent on a WR in the last 9 years was Cedric Tillman at #74 in 2023. Apparently, that blown #1 on Cory Coleman in 2016 really hit home. While the Bills boundary WRs are disappointing, the three headed TE, the RBs, and Shakir are emerging as a championship caliber alternative to stud WRs. Huge advantage Bills.
Offensive Line:
If you haven’t figured out yet why the Browns are 3-11, their terrible OL should do the trick. They were projected bottom 5 before the season started and have managed to get worse. The Bills’ OL Coach Aaron Kromer has been a godsend, and if a position coach can make the Ring of Honor, I second the motion. Huge advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
The Browns are middle of the pack. It is tough to sugar coat the numbers around the Bills rushing defense, but in some respect it’s like a pitcher who is generally effective but is far too susceptible to home runs. Because the Browns lack a home run hitter, I’ll call this even.
Pass Defense:
The Browns are #1 in the NFL, in large part due to Myles Garrett, the closest approximation of Bruce Smith we have seen since #78 hung up his cleats. The Bills catch a break with elite CB Denzel Ward out. The Bills are #2 in fewest passing yards allowed, so the best aspect of the Browns is countered well. Advantage Browns.
Special teams:
One of the most pleasant surprises of this Bills season is Ray Davis, the NFL’s leading kickoff returner. Another has been Punter Mitch Wishnowsky. I’m not thrilled with rolling out waiver wire kickers, but how much difference is there between the middle of the pack and the waiver wire? Kicker is now on the Bills draft radar, with Tyler Bass not looking like he will ever be on the Aubrey/Dicker/Bates tier. Punt coverage was A+ last week. Advantage Bills.
Coaching:
My Coach of The Year short list includes Ben Johnson (Bears), Mike Macdonald (Seahawks), Sean Payton (Broncos), and Sean McDermott. 12-13 wins with this roster and all the injuries is phenomenal. Kevin Stefanski deserves a better fate and another opportunity elsewhere. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
Of the Bills two bad road losses, one was a week 6 primetime game, and the other was a division loss. This is 1 p.m. ET with expected record numbers of Mafia invaders in the orange seats. If I was a Browns fan, the best-case scenario involves getting the #1 overall pick and trading it for multiple picks.
The Forecast:
Bills 27 Browns 13
They don’t all have to be difficult, do they?
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Big family Christmas Party during the game this week…appetizers will likely rule the day. Can someone at Pillsbury suggest mini crescent rolls to make my pigs in a blanket a little easier to make?
Beer:
My general recommendation is any of the many Christmas themed ales on your local shelf. I am lucky; my Cincinnati nephew brought up one of the best, Mad Tree Brewing’s “Holly Days”, made with Spruce Tips!
Music:
Some of my favorite Christmas tunes:
- Vince Garibaldi: Linus and Lucy.
- Jose Feliciano: Feliz Navidad.
- The Beach Boys: Little Saint Nick.
- The Kinks: Father Christmas.
Merry Christmas to all! Keep the faith!
Editor’s babble: Many thanks for all of Joe Reagans contributions to our blog and beer IQ. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869. Merry Christmas, BillsMafia!
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