Sunday, November 16th, 1 p.m. ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY… T minus 4?
Weather: Upper 30s, gusty winds
Latest line: Bills-6, over/under 46
Last week: Lost outright (6-3), lost vs the spread (4-5), won the over/under (6-3)
The last thing Bills Mafia wants to hear after a loss is “They wanted it more”. After a week that generated enough bulletin board fodder to last a career, in comes NFC South leader Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield. Can the Bills get on track after a disappointing stretch?
The Breakdown:
QB:
The 2018 QB Draft Class matchup stands at one win apiece. Their statistics nine games in are pretty close. But in general, Allen over Mayfield, and on a cold windy November afternoon in WNY, even more so. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Good news for the Bills; Bucky Irving will be out one more week. James Cook needs 80 yards to hit 1000 for the season. Season rushing totals: Allen 311 Mayfield 158. Big advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
For all the injuries and question marks surrounding both teams in this area, Emeka Egbuka gets the checkmark for the Tampa Bay. Slight advantage Bucs, but the proper usage of James Cook and Ty Johnson could easily flip the category.
Offensive Line:
Tampa Bay is one of few teams with Tackles to match Buffalo, but the interior is a weakness and they are down at least one starting guard. I expect major attitude from the Bills OL after what happened last week. Big advantage Buffalo.
Run Defense:
Tampa Bay Nose Tackle Vita Vea ranks high on the list of guys we wish were Bills. Tampa Bay is a solid top 10 run defense. The Bills’ run defense has been humiliated 3 times in 9 games, but at least it was Henry, Bijan Robinson, and Achane. Advantage Bucs.
Pass Defense:
Maybe the ease with which our opponents can run the ball skews the stats, but the Bills sit 3rd in fewest passing yards allowed per game while the Bucs are currently 24th. Wind will be a big factor. No Hassan Reddick to pressure Josh is a plus for Buffalo. Advantage Bills.
Special Teams:
With the weather conditions, the place-kickers should cancel out. Just make those extra points. I am very happy with the punting of Mitch Wishnowsky and his 26-point scrabble surname. Hoping Mecole Hardman is our KR in Houston Thursday Night. Until then, even.
Coaching:
Plenty of discouraging words were heard this week about McDermott and his coordinators, but I will go with our guy’s 86-45 over Todd Bowles 60-71. Lots to prove for Brady and Babich. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
How do the Bills respond to a bad loss and the absolute beating they took from national media?
The Forecast:
Bills 28 Bucs 20
Doesn’t look like a FG day…Buffalo HAS to win the home games.
The Pregame Plan
From the corner of Southwestern and California:
Food:
Bacon, egg, and cheese on an Everything Bagel from Tim Horton’s.
Beer:
Back to basics with Buffalo’s favorite IPA, Big Ditch Hayburner. A little strong for 10 am, but after last week, maybe not,
Music:
Hard to match the guitar power of Tampa Southern Rock legends The Outlaws, who opened for the Rolling Stones at Rich Stadium in 1975.
- Ghost Riders In The Sky.
- Hurry Sundown.
- There Goes Another Love Song.
- Green Grass and High Tides… the 20 minute live version!.
In all likelihood, tomorrow will be my final game at Rich/Ralph/Highmark Stadium. 53 years of memories will come flooding back. May the final one be pleasant.
Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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