Sunday, November 9, 1 p.m. ET
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens Florida
Weather: upper 80s, “feels like” 93
Latest line: Bills-9.5, over/under 50
Last week: won outright (6-2), won vs the spread (4-4), won the over/under (5-3).
Great win over the Chiefs, but injuries continue to haunt the Bills 2025 season. Michael Hoecht, we hardly knew thee, but you are already part of Bills folklore. Up next are the Miami Dolphins, who are in the process of a tear down and rebuild, one that most likely involves neither their head coach nor their Quarterback. Big AFC East implications going down in South Florida this Sunday as the Patriots face the Bucs in Tampa at the same time. Will the Bills extend their 2nd winning streak of this season to three?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Good to see Josh smiling last week and thank you Grandma for sound advice. We are all grinning from ear to ear about 23-26 completions. The good news for Tua is 15 TD passes, the bad news is 11 interceptions. Is this the last Allen/Tagovailoa matchup? Big Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Borrowing from the NYC Marathon last week, there are only a handful of NFL running backs in the lead pack, and De’von Achane is one of them. James Cook is heading where only OJ Simpson has gone before in a Bills uniform. Add in Josh and healthier depth than Miami, and it’s advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
I don’t think I have a Bills historical comp for Dalton Kincaid. I hope and expect his snaps and target share to increase. Signs of life from Curtis Samuel and Elijah Moore are greatly appreciated. In Miami, it’s Jaylen Waddle and not much else. We were glad to see Brandon Beane buy a ticket on the WR Train this week and I’m scouting WRs as we speak. For this week everyone eats is sufficient. Advantage Bills.
Offensive Line:
AI suggested that the Dolphins OL ranks somewhere between 15th and 28th. I like it when AI aligns with the eye test. I don’t need a gimmick to proclaim the Bills a top 5 unit. They give the Bills are much higher floor than the doomsayers can appreciate. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
The Bills current DT situation might not be ideal on passing downs, but it does look very good against the run. Ogunjobi, Mathis, and Phillips have saved us, and Deone Walker continues to turn heads around the league. Miami is dreadful. Advantage Bills.
Pass Defense:
Only Atlanta has allowed fewer passing yards per game than Buffalo. Miami ranks a respectable 10th. With significant injury questions on both sides, I will call this even.
Special Teams:
As far as midseason grades, Prater, punter #3 Wishnowsky, and the coverage units have earned solid Bs. The return game is at best a gentleman’s C. I will give Miami a slight edge here.
Coaching:
McDermott, Brady, and Babich are coming off their best week of the season. Mike McDaniel appears to be on borrowed time in Miami, Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
The Dolphin fans and analysts would prefer the Dolphins to lose. Josh owns Tua and the Dolphins. Why can’t football have a dugout?
The Forecast: 133 yards to 1000 for James Cook. Control the clock.
Bills 30 Dolphins 17
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
I know it may be controversial, but I am a big fan of Hawaiian Pizza. [ed.note: yuck]
Beer:
The impending first snowfall in WNY has me daydreaming of the beach, and there is a six pack of Corona Premier and some limes on hand to help achieve the vibe.
Music:
Jimmy Buffett would not be happy with either of his favorite teams (Saints and Dolphins) but his music always fits a trip to South Florida. From the 1990 Live Album “Feeding Frenzy”:
- You’ll Never Work In Dis Business Again.
- Last Mango In Paris…”our lives change like the weather, but a legend never dies”.
- Come Monday….it will be alright.
- Gypsies In The Palace…dedicated to The Order Of The Sleepless Knights.
Good week to pass the Patriots!
Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his “Fedora Forecasts”. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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