Sunday, November 2, 4:25 p.m. EST
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: Mid 40s, light winds, 100% chance of darkness
Latest Line: Bills+2, over/under 52.5
Last week: The Forecast won outright (5-2), won against the spread (3-4), and won the with the over (4-3)
Week Nine and November; I wonder who’s up next? Without further ado, let’s break down Chiefs/Bills.
The Breakdown:
QB:
How do we compare Mahomes and Allen specific to Week 9, 2025? In terms of Game Plans, it may well be Apples and Oranges. Patrick Mahomes was hungry for weapons for a long time, now he is feasting happily. “Game Manager” Josh Allen isn’t as much fun, but unless Spagnola has an answer for James Cook, no need to air it out. If recent form is the decider, slight advantage to the Chiefs.
Run Game Weapons:
This is the biggest mismatch on the board. Two RBs belong in the MVP conversation so far this season, and one is James Cook. And who knows? Maybe some designed QB runs this week to counter Steve Spagnola? The term “weapon” also applies to Jackson Hawes and Reggie Gilliam as blockers. Kareem Hunt has had a nice on field career for a MAC RB, but he’s 30. Big Advantage to the Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
A healthy Dalton Kincaid=36 year old Travis Kelce. Khalil Shakir>Hollywood Brown. So far, so good. Now the bad news. Rice and Worthy last week? 14 receptions for 146 yards and a TD. Keon Coleman the last two outings? 6 and 41. Curtis Samuel on the season? 3/35/1. When will the RBs get involved? I would love to be pleasantly surprised, but advantage Chiefs.
Offensive Line:
Besides the hot hand Cook, the next best reason to pick the Bills is their healthy elite unit vs. the Chiefs OL without their starting Left Tackle Josh Simmons. We need a flag free game upfront. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
The numbers, the scheme, Chris Jones, and multiple Bills injuries at DT all favor the Chiefs. But the presence of Milano, Hoecht, Ogunjobi, Hairston, and the Safety Platoon shut down a Panthers ground game with a much better resume than the Chiefs. Even.
Pass Defense:
Max Hairston looks like a difference maker, and both teams are statistically solid, but the eye test says advantage Chiefs. The strong Bills rookie DB class has narrowed the gap though.
Special Teams:
For organizations that generally prioritize ST, the 2025 return games of both teams are unimpressive. The Punters are close, the kickers are close. Even.
Coaching:
Short answer: Advantage Chiefs.
Intangibles:
The Chiefs are 3-0 their last three and are the NFL’s quickest riser in the power rankings. After a two-game losing streak, pounding the Panthers stopped a Bills free fall. Both teams look like they will be seriously challenged to win their division. Mahomes is used to the Mafia home crowd, but I’m leaning into home field advantage as the 3rd pillar of hope this week.
The Forecast:
If you remain obsessed with a struggling passing game, it’s hard to pick the Bills. If you think that very few NFL teams are going to be able to stop James Cook with Jackson Hawes and Reggie Gilliam blocking, a Bills victory is more realistic. Control the clock!
Bills 24 Chiefs 20
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Wings. I found a BBQ joint that does a great job on their smoked chicken wings and has a great variety of sauces to choose from. After much happy experimentation, their classic KC BBQ Sauce proved to be the best complement. Very different for me than traditional wings.
Beer:
I have been on a Pilsner kick lately. I wanted to revisit one of the first Bills themed beers. Thin Man Brewing’s Pills Mafia, to see how it measured up against some strong Czech, German, and American competition. Very favorably!
Music:
Win or lose, congratulations to the Toronto Blue Jays on providing an Epic World Series. In honor of Toronto native and huge baseball fan Geddy Lee, and their upcoming tour, some RUSH:
- Tom Sawyer….for our Modern Day Warrior QB.
- Limelight…most of the Bills thrive on it.
- Spirit of Radio…for our friends at WGR.
- Closer To The Heart… “Sailing into destiny”.
No matter the outcome, the reports of either team’s demise will be greatly exaggerated.
Editor’s babble: I’ll be watching with one eye open. My way of coping is to ignore all the pregame shows and just turn the game on when it starts. Congrats to the Toronto Blue Jays, win or lose. You can find me if you really want to on Xwitter @RobynMundyWYO.
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