Monday, October 13, 7:15 p.m. ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Weather: Dome
Latest line: Bills-4.5, over/under 50
Last week: Ugh! Lost outright (4-1), Lost vs spread (2-3), lost the over/under (3-2).
Bills Mafia has developed quite a lexicon of catch phrases. If your household is like mine, plenty of those catch phrases hang in the closet on T-shirts. Today I’m wearing the “Humble and Hungry” swag. My conclusion that the Patriots weren’t the defense to keep the Bills Offense under 30 might have held, but the Bills continue to be the best bet to stifle their own offense. Turnovers and penalties lead to the first loss. Will the offense bounce back to their usual 30+ this week, while the defense desperately waits for the bye and the cavalry?
The Breakdown:
QB:
I’ll put it this way. Josh Allen is the biggest reason the Buffalo Bills are a Super Bowl contender; Michael Penix is the biggest reason why the Falcons are not. Penix has potential, and maybe the current Bills defense is a good spot for his development. Big advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Bijan Robinson was the first RB off the board in a big chunk of fantasy drafts this year, but a guy named Skattebo just tripled Robinson’s TD output in one game. As a RUNNER, it’s an easy case that James Cook is his equal. Tyler Allgeier gets the tough yardage for the Falcons, but Penix is not a running QB. Josh Allen probably tips this to the Bills, but we will respect Bijan and go even.
Pass Game Weapons:
Both teams have some nice players; the Falcons integrate Robinson into their passing game far better than the Bills have with Cook. London and Coleman are big possession type WRs, Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid have both fallen short of expectations in their careers to date, but Kincaid has momentum now. The absence of Darnell Mooney should ease the strain on the Bills secondary. With Mooney I would have called it even, but Shakir over Ray Ray McCloud gives Buffalo the edge.
Offensive Line:
While the Bills continue to be consistently top 5 in the various real time ranking processes, Atlanta isn’t far off. There are a lot of similarities between the Bills’ and Falcons’ offense, but thankfully not at QB. Slight edge to Buffalo.
Run Defense:
At this point for Buffalo, there is nowhere to go but up. I will bookmark the 145 yards/game and 28th league ranking, and revisit it again after week 10. Looking at Atlanta’s numbers and opponents to date, they are not good either. Even and not good.
Pass Defense:
#1 and #2 in the fewest passing yards allowed per game? The Atlanta Falcons and the Buffalo Bills. Some of that is opponents. Some of that is game situation. A lot of it is “Why pass when running is easy?” But without turning on Atlanta Sports Talk Radio, I doubt that they are fretting about 3/5 of their defensive backfield. Advantage Falcons.
Special Teams:
Pop quiz. Name the Bills punter. Not important, and Mitch Wishnowsky held for the extra points and field goals just fine. Matt Prater is less stressful than Tyler Bass. The return game is a C so far, but I will ignore the temptation to reopen the Codrington/Shenault debate. The Falcons 28-year-old rookie kicker Parker Romo must have an interesting backstory. Advantage Bills.
Coaching:
Atlanta’s DC Jeff Ulbrich came from the Jets, so he should have a great deal of familiarity with the Bills. Zac Robinson has put up good numbers as Raheem Morris’ OC. Much like offensive linemen, if you hear the names Brady and Babich on WGR, it was likely not a good week. There are more than enough obstacles to overcome for Sean McDermott to win the Coach of the Year if the Bills MEET expectations. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
The Bills “got away with” their performance vs the Ravens, and then “cleaned it up” for the Jets game. Same template? The Falcons are extremely well rested after their bye.
The Forecast:
I just can’t get past the QB mismatch. I don’t see Drake Maye’s potential in Michael Penix.
Bills 34 Falcons 16
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
I wonder if I can get some boiled peanuts around here to snack on during the game? The pre-game meal that best fits Georgia is Fried Chicken, collard greens, and mashed potatoes.
Beer:
No better way to recover from a loss than by getting back to basics. Founded in Denmark in 1847, Carlsberg made the lofty claim “Probably the best beer in the world”. That might be tough to prove, but it is my favorite European beer in a highly competitive field.
Music:
From the Atlanta/Georgia song list:
- Midnight Train To Georgia…Gladys Knight and the Pips
- Rock N Me…The Steve Miller Band
- Love Shack…The B 52s
- The Devil Went Down To Georgia…Charlie Daniel’s Band
Please, no two game losing streaks this season!
Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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