Fedora Forecast: Patriots at Bills

Sunday, October 5th, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: Upper 60s, clear and calm
Latest line: Bills-8.5, over/under 49.5

Last week: Bills 31 Saints 19. (48-10) The forecast won outright, lost vs the spread, and won with the over. For the season: 4-0 outright, 2-2 vs the spread, and 3-1 on the over/under.

The Saints were feisty last week, but the Bills still posted a third consecutive double-digit victory. Next up is the Patriots last trip to Highmark, and first of the Mike Vrabel era. So far, the 2025 Pats have been an every-other-week team, and they are coming off a strong effort vs the Panthers. Some of the rhetoric this week about the Patriots threat level seemed like a bit of irrational exuberance, but will the Bills take care of business against their most likely division challenger?

The Breakdown:

QB:

A lot of stocks are down in the young QB market, but Drake Maye is one of the exceptions. He has completed 74% of his passes, and sits 6th in passing yards, one slot ahead of one Josh Allen. If the NFL redrafted all 32 QBs tomorrow, Maye might sneak into the top 5. But right now, the gap between Allen and Mahomes and the rest of the field is enormous. Advantage Bills.

Run Game Weapons:

As a Treveyon Henderson fantasy football owner, I am expecting that he gets a bigger share of the load going forward. Rhamondre Stevenson brings the thunder, and Drake Maye needs to be accounted for. But right now, Buffalo has their first RB to win Offensive Player of the month since Thurman Thomas. I think I discovered a comp for James Cook as a runner (independent of the passing game): how about LaDainian Tomlinson? Advantage Bills.

Pass Game Weapons:

Top shelf boundary WRs are few and far between in New England history-Stanley Morgan, Irving Fryar, and one magical season from Randy Moss. They have had a Hall of Fame TE and some great slot WRs. This year’s Pats WR corps features a pair of familiar faces in Diggs and Hollins, and steady TE Hunter Henry, but all in all it’s a bottom five unit. Getting a #1 WR for Maye has to be a 2026 draft priority. Looks like Khalil Shakir is fully healed, ay? Dalton Kincaid looks like he will put up the most consistent numbers in this offense, while Coleman and Shakir will vary more week to week. I would like to see Shavers get more snaps and few deep balls on tape soon. Advantage Bills.

Offensive Line:

The previous Pats leadership did not leave solid infrastructure behind, but the Patriots are correcting that now. Fourth overall pick Will Campbell will be watching Maye’s blind side for years, but this is only his 5th NFL start. Spencer Brown has gotten to a level where it is more noticeable when he is out, but VanDemark is better than most depth tackles. Advantage Bills.

Run Defense:

In terms of recent form, the Bills have been bad, good, ok, and bad through four games. Since by some freak of nature we don’t have weather to talk about, the reasons why the Bills surrendered 189 rushing yards to the Saints was this week’s big topic. Health and tackling are immediate areas to address, but I get the feeling that scheme will enter the discussion more frequently if there isn’t significant improvement. New England is an impressive 3rd in fewest rushing yards allowed through 4 weeks. Let’s see if James Cook puts a dent in that. Advantage Patriots.

Pass Defense:

The Pats are currently 26th in passing yards allowed, and that is after the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, and Panthers. Josh Allen and Joe Brady should enjoy the evening. And who leads the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed? Your Buffalo Bills. The sacks are only one apart thus far. Advantage Bills.

Special Teams:

Last week the Saints came in off a dreadful ST game vs Seattle but played very well until destroying our punter. This week New England comes off a game where Marcus Jones had an 87-yard punt return TD plus a 61-yard return in addition. Chris Tabor might have the toughest time on the staff falling asleep tonight. Welcome another Utah Ute to OP in new Bills… P Mitch Wishnowsky! Gotta look into that name origin. Advantage Patriots.

Coaching:

I was inclined to call this even, but even with Josh Allen, Sean McDermott’s winning percentage is too far ahead of Vrabel’s. The OL Coach matchup of Aaron Kromer vs Doug Marrone is juicy. Advantage Bills.

Intangibles:

A division game makes it generally more difficult to spot the opponent more than a touchdown, but the home night games in the farewell season are a completely different animal. The weather and the White Out ramp up the intensity as well.

The Forecast:

Drake Maye is going to be a serious rival in the not-too-distant future, just not tomorrow. The 2024 Bills tied the NFL record with 8 straight 30-point games in 2024, with the Patriots snapping the streak. The Bills are 4/4 so far putting up 30-let’s make it 5/5 .

Buffalo 34 New England 20.

The Pregame Plan:

Food:

It’s too warm for the Clam Chowder…after fasting this week for a medical procedure, I promised myself a Cheeseburger Garbage Plate. when the coast was clear.

Beer:

Most likely the first “Craft Beer” most of us Boomers had was Sam Adams Boston Lager…it’s the same age as Matt Prater and still a go to.

Music:

I continue to re-live some of the greatest concerts to ever grace the hallowed turf of the Ralph. If I could time travel to see just one artist who played there, I would have to choose Lynyrd Skynyrd in June of 1977… just a handful of shows from the the fatal plane crash that killed Ronnie Van Zant, Steve Gaines, and Cassie Gaines.

1. I Know A Little…about football, and baby I can guess the rest.
2. Call Me The Breeze …Skynyrd’s best cover.
3. Gimme Three Steps …not sure James Cook needs three.
4. Free Bird …unbeatable guitar solos.

It has been Ground Hog Day weather-wise all season, here’s hoping the same victory wise!

Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.