Elimination Game – Safety

I’m not all that convinced the Bills are done with their Safety position group. I have 76 eligible safeties right now in my BuffaloFAMBase Big Board, and of those, 64 are starters:

3 Caleb Downs S Ohio State
25 Dillon Thieneman S Oregon
33 Jalon Kilgore S South Carolina
66 Keon Sabb S Alabama
82 Kamari Ramsey S USC
94 Michael Taaffe S Texas
99 Emmanuel McNeil-Warren S Toledo
100 Bray Hubbard S Alabama
102 Tao Johnson S Utah
108 Xavier Scott S Illinois
115 Amare Ferrell S Indiana
137 Xavier Nwankpa S Iowa
173 Khalil Barnes S Clemson
179 Zeke Berry S Michigan
186 Terry Moore S Duke
202 Isaiah Nwokobia S SMU
226 Kerry Brown S Minnesota
235 Jalen Catalon S Missouri
237 Malik Spencer S Michigan State
243 Ashlynd Barker S Florida St
250 Bud Clark S TCU
260 Rod Moore S Michigan
266 Devonta Smith S Notre Dame
269 Cole Wisniewski S Texas Tech
273 Preston Zachman S Wisconsin
297 Peyton Bowen S Oklahoma
306 Ahmaad Moses S SMU
326 Kendel Dolby S Oklahoma
350 Randon Fontenette S Vanderbilt
369 Isaac Smith S Mississippi St
385 Jelani McDonald S Texas
405 Joenel Aguero S Georgia
426 Darian Chestnut S Syracuse
442 Isaiah Crosby S California
453 D.Q. Smith S South Carolina
477 Robert Spears-Jennings S Oklahoma
522 Xavion Alford S Arizona State
532 VJ Payne S Kansas State
597 Jordan Pollard S San Jose State
601 Bryce Anderson S Texas A&M
607 Mitch Leigber S Stanford
647 Jalen Huskey S Maryland
656 Jacoby Mathews S Auburn
724 Daylan Carnell S Missouri
745 Khalil Baker S NC Central
805 Nick Andersen S Wake Forest
812 Malcolm Greene S UMass
830 Key Lawrence S UCLA
848 Miles Scott S Illinois
854 Sean Brown S NC State
881 Antonio Clary S Virginia
910 Gunner Maldonado S Kansas State
914 Tyree Skipper S Lousiana-Lafayette
927 Dijon Johnson S Florida

An average of 56 DBs are drafted each year, and one-third of those are safeties — approximately 19 safeties are drafted annually. I see that 18-19 teams have a top-4 positional need at safety, most especially the Bears, Bengals, Browns, Bills, Chargers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Jets, Titans, Jaguars, Patriots, Ravens, Saints, and Vikings. I can make a case for adding the Cardinals, Colts, Niners, Panthers, Raiders, and Steelers, too, so I’m going to narrow my list to my top 24 safeties, arranged by their current September 2025 rank on our BuffaloFAMBase Big Board:

When you have to face Travis Henry and Co., size matters. Our top safeties weigh 200 (Hamlin), 206 (Bishop), and 207 pounds (Rapp). Let’s see the above list, eliminating those safeties lighter than Hamlin and sorting them by weight:

Some notables I’m taking off the list due to body mass: Tao Johnson, who played with Cole Bishop (but Tao played nickel back then), is on the cusp, but for this game, we’re eliminating him. Michael Taaffe of Texas had success in the scouted game vs Ohio State (2 solos, 7 assists), but I like him better in the FS/CB arena at his size, and we’re more likely looking for a “chameleon” safety who can interchange FS and SS roles on the fly. Both are considerations for a Taron Johnson- or Cam Lewis-type role, however. Michigan State’s Malik Spencer had 4 tackles and an interception in the 2024 scouted game vs Oregon; he’s one of the fastest safeties on this list. Think of a faster Damar Hamlin.

Now, let’s find out which of the bigger safeties have had the most success with open-field tackling. Micah Hyde’s college Solo Tackles divided by career GP was 3.04; Rapp’s was 2.64 and Poyer’s was 2.0. We’ll bid adieu to Amare Ferrell, Ashlynd Barker, and Devonta Smith, who were sub-1.7.

Here is the resulting list, now sorted by solo tackles per game over their careers to this point:

The column labeled “25” is that player’s ScoutScore. Here’s what I mean: I’ve tracked credentialed Bills scout visits for 4 years, and in 2023 I began assigning weights to the visits as follows:

1 Game visited by 1 Scout=1 pt.
Beane at game=3 pts
Coordinator at game=2 pts.
Position Coach at game=2 pts
Bills at Combine=2 pts
Bills meet at Combine with player=2 pts.
Pro Day=2 pts.
Private Visit/Workout=2 pts.
30-Visit=5 pts.

This year’s ScoutScore takes 2023 and 2024 into account, and I’ll be adding 2025 visits to that number. Here is the above list sorted by ScoutScore so far, heavily weighted by the last two years’ visits, for the time being.

Based on school visits by Bills scouts so far, the top 7 safeties on the Bills’ radar entering the 2025-26 draft season are Keon Sabb, Caleb Downs, Khalil Barnes, Bray Hubbard, Jalon Kilgore, Terry Moore, and Dillon Thieneman. Those players whose names are in green are frequent draft picks of mine on draft simulators (I especially love DraftProfessor for its dynamic approach, as selected players by all visitors percolate the better players to the top rounds). We’ll talk about some of the safeties with the highest ScoutScores below, but the notable names at the bottom are Isaiah Nwokobia, Malik Spencer, and Jalen Catalon, plus two guys still in my Top 100, Kamari Ramsey and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. It doesn’t mean the Bills won’t take them, and any of the five could have a banner year, but for now, I’m eliminating them from this game until the Bills scouts start actually going to their games, Combine, or Pro Days.

Here’s the resulting list sorted by forty time:

Caleb Downs is most likely a top-5 pick in the draft, and has the second-highest Scout Score, but the Bills have their eyes on four consolation prizes: two RD1 safeties, Dillon Thieneman and Jalon Kilgore, one RD2 safety, Keon Sabb, and Sabb’s ‘Bama teammate, Bray Hubbard.

Caleb Downs is likely a candidate for one or several of the Heisman, Thorpe, Nagurski, Bednarik, and Lott IMPACT trophies, and he’s one of three defensive players (with DTs T. J. Parker and Peter Woods) that could hear their names called among the first six picks, and we’re drafting #32 –wink, wink. Downs is arguably the best safety in zone in this decade, with little dropoff in press-man, but his skillset lends itself more to FS<->CB than an interchangeable FS <-> SS, which is what the Bills are likely seeking. This is a Pro Bowl shoo-in. Likelihood of Bills Selection: Poor.

---

Dillon Thieneman is one of three more-likely targets for the Bills. Thieneman’s location in Oregon might explain the lower ScoutScore. I’ve learned that the few West Coast players get Combine and Pro Day visits by the Bills rather than a plethora of scouted games. Cole Bishop and Khalil Shakir, for example, both had a ScoutScore of 1 before Combine and Pro Day. Thieneman’s screamin’ speed, plus his insane 6 solo tackles per game over his career, make for an ideal match for the archetypal safety I think the Bills need. He plays a majority of his snaps as a center fielder (20+ yds deep), gets his teammates in position, displays fluid hips/movement, is quick to click and close, and his film study yields great anticipation and awareness. Most important, Thieneman’s work ethic is unmatched. He’s always into the facility early. Likelihood of Bills Selection: Excellent.

Keon Sabb is also the archetypal safety who “chameleons” between FS and SS extremely well. Along with Downs and Thieneman, Sabb’s career of solo tackling has been top-level. Sabb had 2 interceptions, including a Pick-Six, in a Bills-scouted game. Over the three years the Bills have been scouting Sabb’s prior school Michigan and now Alabama, Sabb has amassed the highest number of scout eyeballs. If would be no surprise if the next Bills’ RD2 could end being Sabb, the defense’s own Keon. Likelihood of Bills Selection: Excellent.

---

Jalon Kilgore played with T.J. Sanders at South Carolina, and got an early start, earning Freshman All-America and Freshman All-SEC in 2023. Last year, Kilgore led the league in interceptions, tying Jaylan Foster’s 2021 total for the most by a Gamecock in the last 20 years. He had a season-high six solo tackles at Vanderbilt, with five each against LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Clemson –many of those scouted by the Bills. He sealed two wins last year, with late-game interceptions in the Old Dominion and the Missouri games, and had picks at Kentucky, at Alabama, and against Illinois. Oh, and he’s pretty good at punt return. Likelihood of Bills Selection: Excellent.

---

Khalil Barnes and Bray Hubbard are worth keeping an eye on, as the ScoutScores suggest, but I doubt they’re the “chameleon” FS<->SS type Brandon Beane will likely be looking for. Barnes is that FS / CB type with big time versatility who may end up being a nice NCB with ball skills and run-stop chops. Hubbard plays SS opposite Sabb, and is known for quick click-and-closing on the ball in the air and on ball carriers. He’s a tremendous athlete who’s reliable in pass coverage assignments. I like his excellent awareness, his proficiency in man-press, and that he’s always in a position to make plays. Last year, Hubbard showed he was versatile, playing 31% of his snaps in Nickel, 31% in he Box, and 38% as CB. He’s on PFF’s preseason 2nd-Ranked Secondary in College Football. Likelihood of Bills Selection: Above Average.

Editor’s babble: These Elimination Games are masterful and this year I’ll be watching the safety position among college players much more closely than in previous years. Many thanks to Dean Kindig for his many contributions to our blog. You can find Dean on Xwitter @TCBILLS_Astro.