Bills Elimination Game — RB

History says that 20 running backs will be picked in the coming draft. Pick the Under for April 24-26, 2025. There are fast ones in the draft; 22 of them are listed with forty times below 4.5. There are big ones, too: 23 of them weigh 215 lbs. or more. Lots will change after the Underwear Olympics. The problem is, only 2 of the 32 NFL teams listed running back as a top-4 need: Raiders and Cowboys. Add Browns, Steelers, Vikings for a top-5 need.

The Bills themselves only scouted two Top-100 rushers in 2024, and neither one’s name is Jeanty. Plan on a 215-lb running back on Day 3, and I’ll bet they’re from Ohio State or Michigan. Runner-up guesses would be South Carolina, Clemson or Tennessee.

In addition, I expect the Bills to take one less-expensive vet from free agency and one future starter to develop from this draft class. I expect Ty Johnson to return, James Cook to play out his contract, Ray Davis to get more snaps in 2025, and Frank Gore Jr. to develop on the practice squad. The Bills typically have about 6 RBs in training camp, so expect two more.

Free Agents signed to new teams did pretty well, didn’t they? Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry each put up terrific numbers in 2024. Well, this year, there are 33 FA running backs with an AAV of between $1M and $7M, with Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, A.J. Dillon, and Nick Chubb the arguable headliners.

This wealth of available talent combined with a lack of interest from NFL teams, will cause running backs to slide 1-2 rounds. We may be looking at potential starters sliding to teams in RD6 that would ordinarily go in RD4, and so on.

The Bills should be looking for the RB (or two) who can do three things: receive, block, and force missed tackles. I would add that if the Bills decide to save $15M and trade Cook, that physical archetype combined with the Bills’ lack of a big bruiser RB may lead the Bills to a different PAIR of backs, both with complementary purposes. Picture a thunder and lightning ground game with a bigger, faster RB than Ray Davis paired with a faster James Cook who’s just as good a receiver.

Let’s dive into the 2025 RB pool. Here are the Pre-Combine RB class rankings on BuffaloFAMBase’s Big Board (Y’all can run a mock with it over at FanSpeak.com):

Let’s look for the Big Bruiser Back first.

Here are all the RBs who weigh more than 214 pounds (for reference, James Cook is 190 pounds and Ray Davis 220). It was astonishing to me that only four of these backs received zero credentialed scout visits in 2024 (and all 4 would be slower than Ray Davis):

Next, let’s see how many are in range of, or faster than that 4.52 Ray Davis ran:

Kalel Mullings and Phil Mafah were scouted very heavily, so I left them in the mix as they offer bulk and blocking, and can function as a fullback as well. Mullings, Mafah and Ollie Gordon are the heaviest on the list. We’ll talk about each at the end of this Elimination Game.

Let’s sort the above RBs by ScoutScore, the sum of credentialed scout visits, weighted as follows:
1 Game with 1 Scout=1 pt.,
Beane=3 pts extra,
Joe Brady/Bobby Babich=2 pts. extra,
Tropicana=1 pt.,
Shrine=2 pts.,
Senior Bowl 3 pts.,
McDermott/Aranda or Diaz connection= 3 pts.,
Combine meeting=2 pts.,
Pro Day attendance =2 pts. per scout,
30-Visit=5 pts.

Here is the list of those RBs with ScoutScore of 7 or more. This knocks Omarion Hampton out of contention with a 2.

The Bills scouts have been to 4 Ohio State games, 6 Clemson games, and 4 Michigan games. Obviously, they were looking at all team personnel on the field, so it’s worth looking at who the Bills might have been looking at. Ohio State offers LT Josh Simmons (RD1), DT1t Tyleik Williams (RD1-2), EDGE Jack Sawyer (RD1-2) and SS Lathan Ransom (RD3) in addition to Quinshon Judkins(RD2) and TreVeyon Henderson (RD2). This would be too early for the Bills to take a running back unless James Cook is dealt elsewhere. Now, Clemson offers OLB Barrett Carter (RD2) and TE Jake Briningstool (RD4) and a nice NT who returned to school, along with Phil Mafah (RD5-6). Michigan’s prime-time players are DT1t Kenneth Grant (RD1, #22 as I write this) and EDGE Josiah Stewart (RD2-3) in addition to Kalel Mullings ((RD4-6) and Donovan Edwards (RD7-PFA). Mullings and OSU’s Raheim “Rocket” Sanders are in what I call the Bills’ Sweet Spot, where they have picks #169, #173, #175, #202, and #204 –five possible picks in a span of only 35 picks. It’s also the time Brandon Beane should be looking at roster-filling at RB. Let’s focus on those five RBs.

Quinshon Judkins –You say you like Angry Runs on the highlight films? Quinshon is an angry runner who’d be replacing an angry runner in Cook. Judkins’ 81 explosive runs (10+ yards) over the last two seasons and 5th-Most Yards After Contact in 2023 (871) certainly qualifies him for one of the Bills’ two RD2 selections. Judkins was an Ole Miss transfer, where he’d gained 3,006 scrimmage yards and 34 TDs over 2022 and 2023. You can tell Quinshon LOVES playing behind the OL at Ohio State. Who wouldn’t? Two or three concerns: (A) His 3.8 YPC vs AP-ranked teams at Ole Miss, (B) When he had a chance to boost that behind one of the best OLs in college, Judkins disappointed me some: 66 carries, 273 yards, 4.1 YPC. (C) You won’t be using him for pass blocking; he’s arguably the least accomplished blocker of my top 15 RBs.
Chance of Bills Drafting Quinshon Judkins: C+; If Cook’s traded, Judkins’ chance of being a Bill goes to B+.

TreVeyon Henderson–Another Buckeye attracting the Bills’ attention, TreVeyon is an electrifying running back. In 2023, Henderson averaged 4.5 yards per carry (down from 5.5 in 2022), and gained 6.3 yards per reception on three catches, compared to 10.97 in 2022. Bills scouts were present for his stellar 2023 performance against Youngstown, where TreVeyon averaged 11.2 ypc on five rushes. Henderson also shined against Rutgers with 22 carries for 128 yards (5.8 YPC) and one touchdown, and against Wisconsin with 24 carries for 162 yards (6.8 YPC) and another touchdown –both scouted. Despite the competitive market for running backs, Henderson’s exceptional pass-blocking, playmaking ability, and versatility as a kick returner make him a strong candidate for the Bills’ third pick at RD2#62 –maybe even a trade-back into the RD3 due to that slide I was talking about. Henderson’s a playmaker, scoring the most career points in this draft class.
Chance of Bills Drafting TreVeyon Henderson: A-; if Cook’s traded or if BBB secures an early RD3, A+.

Phil Mafah–Mafah had a successful 2023, leading the Tigers with 149 carries for 805 yards and nine TDs, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 4.9 against AP-ranked teams. Notably, he had Clemson’s longest run of the year with a 49-yarder against Duke, a Bills-scouted game. In 2024, he’s already had a challenge, a loss against Georgia with a just-average 16 carries for 59 yards –also scouted. All told, Phil had 8 TDs against 0 fumbles in 2024, with 13 catches of 16 targets. His best outing was against Louisville (30 carries-171 yards with 2 TD; plus 5 receptions of 5 targets), a scouted game. Mafah is also recognized for his academic achievements, being a regular All-ACC Academic Team selection. I have him as the #2 passblocker in the 2025 RB class. You might call him a nasty Mafah.
Chance of Bills Drafting Phil Mafah: A regardless of whether Cook’s traded or not.

Kalel Mullings–Redshirt senior Kalel Mullings showcased his talent with 5.0 yards per carry on three touches against AP-ranked teams in 2023, while also fulfilling kick return duties in both 2023 and 2024. In the 2024 season, Mullings was 185-948 (5.1 ypc), including a long run of 63 yards against AP-ranked opponents. His excellent vision, physicality, and temperament make him a compelling NFL prospect. The Buffalo Bills, in need of a power back, would benefit from his skill set; Mullings, who delivered a standout performance with 17 carries for 159 yards and 2 TDs in a scouted 27-24 win over USC and 24-211-4.6-2 TD vs Minnesota, fits the mold of a mid-round gem with body type reminiscent of our brief-stay banger Leonard Fournette.(6-0, 240, 4.51). Mullings and Mafah are the best blockers in the group. Mullings was not a starter for the Wolverines, with 4 starts in 55 games played, and he padded his stats against non-AP-ranked teams, looking less than superhuman against Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Illinois, and Texas, I checked to see if Jor-El was his father. IYKYK.
Chance of Bills Drafting Kalel Mullings: A- regardless of whether Cook’s traded or not.

Raheim “Rocket” Sanders–Raheim “Rocket” Sanders has demonstrated the potential to be both a feature back and a versatile “thunder” RB option for the Bills’ RB stable. The redshirt junior impressed Beane in a scouted game with a 20-144-2 TD stat line this year against Texas A&M, adding 92 yards on 5-of-5 receiving for good measure. He’s on Beane’s short list, and the Bills won’t be looking much earlier at RB than where Rocket is supposed to land. He did see a dip in his performance against AP-ranked teams in 2023, averaging 1.9 yards per carry compared to 5.4 in 2022. Despite this, his all-around game remains strong; he averaged 8.7 yards per reception on three catches in 2023. The Buffalo Bills’ first scout visit in the 2023 draft season was to Arkansas, possibly eyeing Sanders as an ideal complement to James Cook, given his size, speed, and explosiveness. It’s possible that description became Ray Davis! Sanders is BUILT. As Sam Pittman noted, “there’s no fat there”. Rocket returned from knee and shoulder surgeries to rank among the SEC’s best RBs, netting him a 2024 “Comeback Player of the Year” award, voted on by Associated Press Top 25 voters. If you get 2022 Rocket Sanders (222 carries for 1,443 yards, 6.5 YPC, 10 TDs) for a Karlos Williams-type investment, you do it.
Chance of Bills Drafting “Rocket” Sanders: A+ regardless of whether Cook’s traded or not.

Editor’s babble: This is liquid gold as a cheat sheet for the 2025 NFL Combine. We are grateful for Dean Kindig’s contributions to our blog. You can also find Dean on Xwitter @TCBILLS_Astro.