Bills Elimination Game — Defensive Line

Here’s last year’s DL Elimination Game, which had the Bills’ 2024 pick, DeWayne Carter, in the Top 7. I expect to do even better than seventh this year, and would want the Bills to do likewise!

History would say that 24 defensive tackles will be picked in the coming draft. Pick the Over for April 24-26, 2025; it’s a great class, so take two, even if you take a Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby. Here’s a list of DTs that I expect to be in play in the first five picks the Bills have at #30, #56, #62, #108, and #131:

The last two columns are ScoutScores for 2023 and 2024, which give the sum of credentialed scout visits, weighted as follows: 1 Game with 1 Scout=1 pt., Beane=3 pts extra, Joe Brady/Bobby Babich=2 pts. extra, Tropicana=1 pt., Shrine=2 pts., Senior Bowl 3 pts., McDermott/Aranda or Diaz connection= 3 pts., Combine meeting=2 pts., Pro Day attendance =2 pts., 30-Visit=5 pts.

It is clear from the ScoutScores that Beane’s minions are shopping mainly in 3 Big Box stores –the Big10, SEC, and a couple of ACC, in that order. Last year, the Big 12 guys, Texas and Baylor, had only 1 scout visit a game. It’s worse this year, with ZERO draftable (rank 1-300 on the BuffaloFAMBase Big Board) DTs scouted at Big 12 schools. Other than Notre Dame DTs Rylie Mills and Howard Cross who are Independent, only the Big10, SEC, and ACC defensive tackles received scout visits, and ACC is fading from the prominence it had with Beane only a few years ago. Only Farmer and Peebles hail from the ACC.

Let’s look at the same information in a different way: Sacks + TFLs Per Game Played over their career. I used Games Played for my calculations. After the Eagles’ decimation of the Chiefs, I’d be of the belief that pressures from the DT position will factor significantly to Beane. Ed Oliver, a 3-4 Nose Tech, was drafted by the Bills with an incredible 2.08 Sacks + TFL per game over his career at Houston (AAC school). Tim Settle had a 1.02, DT1T DaQuan Jones had 0.71, and DT1T Jordan Phillips had 0.63. The lowest scorers on this list are essentially gap-clogger type 1-techs that still serve a role –drawing 2 OL and keeping LBs clean.

Here are the top 20 in Sacks + TFLs Per Game Played (Career):

If the object of the game is to garner as much pressure from a 4-man front without blitzing, I’m needing a 1-tech complement to DT3T Ed Oliver with more beef, strength, and pressure to force double-teams. I’d like a DaQuan Jones successor behind a veteran free agent at DT1T, and Deone Walker, Jamaree Caldwell, and Tyleik Williams sure seem to be gathering attention by the Bills. If they draft two 1-techs, I’d sure invite C.J. West in for a 30-visit. His interview was the best in the IDL class.

Now, what about DT3T? You need a heavier Ed Oliver type who can still generate pressure. Oliver’s 6-2, 281, 4.82. Let’s start with the DTs receiving the most eyeballs by the Bills in 2024. Here are the DTs with ScoutScores of 8 or above:

Now sort that by weight.

If I were drafting a 3-tech as a complement to EdO, six names jump out at me, and one, Mason Graham, isn’t going to be there even if you traded 2025 and 2026 draft capital to do so. Those 3-techs with size that are drawing the most attention from the Bills are Derrick Harmon, Omarr Norman-Lott, Vernon Broughton, Tim Smith, and Alfred Collins. I’d expect Harmon to be a nice first round pick if you stay at #30, and Norman-Lott a very reasonable third pick at RD2#62. An intriguing idea is to package both round twos and go up and get Alfred Collins. Collins impressed in the Bills-scouted game vs Georgia, notching 6 tackles and 3 pressures, and is extremely adept at defending against the run, and the Bills are one of the league’s worst at that.

One pitch for Vernon Broughton with one of your RD4s. He’s known for his rapid ability to generate pressure, and was second only to Collins as the highest-graded defensive tackle in the CBP semifinals. In the Longhorns’ SEC Championship game against Georgia, a mecca for scouts, he recorded a season-high 6 tackles. As a fifth-year defensive lineman, Broughton has played in 55 games with 16 starts, accumulating 69 career tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, and four fumble recoveries. He’s smart as he is athletic, with high school accolades as an All-American and a finalist for the Watkins Award, recognizing top African-American male high school scholar-athletes.

TJ Sanders, Shemar Turner, and Walter Nolen, plus Sanders’ sidekick, Tonka Hemingway, are lighter options, and each have situational advantages. Brandon Beane came to see T.J. Sanders and Tonka Hemingway when South Carolina shut down then-#10 Texas A&M. Tonka put up 3 solo tackles, 1 sack and 1 TFL, and T.J. put up 2 tackles, a sack, and a TFL. In that group, though, I am especially fond of Shemar Turner. His explosive sideline-to-sideline play would be useful against mobile QBs, and he shows flashes of a great bull rush. In 2024, Turner took snaps both inside at 3T and outside at EDGE, so his versatility and effectiveness are intriguing when you’re trying to disguise or run stunts. Turner is this draft class’s Ed Oliver. There, I said it.

Editor’s babble: We are blessed for Dean Kindig’s many contributions to our blog… and our knowledge base for looking at Buffalo Bills’ potential draftees at the 2025 NFL Draft. You can also find our favorite Draft Wiz on Xwitter @TCBILLS_Astro.