Buffalo made it back to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2020, but of course, needed to get by the Kansas City Chiefs in order to reach the long awaited Super Bowl with Josh Allen. After losing two heartbreakers to KC in the last three years, the Bills saw history repeat itself on Sunday.
Early Game Jitters
Buffalo started with the football, and immediately, it looked like Allen’s pre-game jitters hadn’t gone away quite yet. After throwing back-to-back incompletions that could’ve very easily been interceptions, the Bills punted for an early three-and-out.
Despite a great punt by Sam Martin to pin the Chiefs at their own 10 yard line, Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City down the field for an opening drive touchdown. He hit Hollywood Brown twice for a total of 20 yards, and rookie Xavier Worthy moved the chains along the sideline for another easy first down. An RPO had the linebackers caught too close to the line of scrimmage, allowing JuJu Smith-Schuster to slip behind them. A juke on Damar Hamlin gave the receiver a 31 yard gain and moved KC into scoring range. On the third consecutive run play to Kareem Hunt, the mid-season free agent pickup rumbled into the endzone for a 12 yard score.
Buffalo was able to move the ball more successfully on their next drive, with Allen finding an open Shakir on third down to move the chains with a gain of 12. After a nine yard catch by Amari Cooper, a tush push earned another first down. Following a five yard run, Allen dropped the second down snap, luckily able to fall on top of the ball to prevent a turnover. Facing 3rd and 9, Shakir was unable to slip out of a tackle, bringing up 4th and 5. Sean McDermott elected to kick, with Tyler Bass drilling a 53-yard field goal to put points on the board for Buffalo.
Bills Get a Bounce
After a 33 yard kickoff return, Mahomes scrambled for 12 yards to move Kansas City to midfield. Hunt gashed through the middle of Buffalo’s defense for a 12 yard gain, with the Chiefs quickly in Buffalo territory. Two plays later, Mahomes fumbled the ball on an RPO that he tried to pull out of the hands of Isiah Pacheco at the last moment. Ed Oliver dove to the ground and wrestled the ball away before Mahomes could regain possession.
A swing pass to Cook in the flat gained 17 yards, thanks to a great block by Reggie Gilliam to clear a lane down the sideline. Three plays later, and facing 3rd and 9, a DB blitz forced Allen to quickly get rid of the ball. He threw over the middle just as Cooper was cutting inside, with the veteran able to react quickly enough to catch the ball and extend the drive. On the next play, the ball was knocked out of Allen’s hands while in the pocket, but the QB was able to grab the loose ball with one hand to prevent a turnover. Facing a loss of 10, Mack Hollins gained seven of the yards back, bringing up 3rd and 13. Allen surveyed the field, and when he got to his third read, threw a laser over the middle to Shakir for a 24 yard gain. On the next play, Cook bounced a run outside, and with a nice block from Hollins, dove into the endzone for a touchdown.
Another Hit to the Secondary
Buffalo was almost fully healthy coming into this matchup, but Taylor Rapp was out with a back/hip injury. Christian Benford had cleared concussion protocol in order to play, but a concussion sustained in the second quarter left Buffalo without another starter in their secondary.
After an eight yard completion to Travis Kelce, Hunt was met by Bernard at the line of scrimmage for a gain of just one, bringing up 3rd and 1. It was Milano’s turn to meet Hunt at the line, this time for no gain, leading to 4th and 1 from KC’s 39. A play-action bootleg allowed Mahomes to scramble for an easy six yards to extend the drive. With Kaiir Elam in the game for the injured Benford, Mahomes immediately started picking on him. Worthy picked up 10 yards and DeAndre Hopkins gained 11, with both receivers being guarded by Elam. A face mask penalty was then called on Elam, although it was a questionable call, and Worthy beat Hamlin underneath on the next play for an 11 yard score.
A three-and-out was not what Buffalo needed, but it’s what the offense produced, after three straight incompletions. On first down, Kincaid was contested but it was a catch he could’ve made. On second down, Curtis Samuel was wide open underneath and had a lot of green grass in front of him. It wasn’t the best throw from Allen, but the ball slipped through Samuel’s hands anyway. Third down was a desperation throw deep to Keon Coleman, but it wasn’t a catchable pass with Allen rolling to his left.
A 41 yard punt return by Nikko Remigio gave Mahomes great starting field position at Buffalo’s 34 yard line. On 3rd and 5, Mahomes was pressured by Dawuane Smoot, and threw a desperation pass downfield to Worthy. Although it looked like Cole Bishop intercepted the pass in real time, and the replay review showed that the ball hit the ground before Worthy had possession, the call on the field stood as a completed pass to Worthy for 26 yards. Three plays later, Mahomes scrambled on another bootleg to the right for a one yard touchdown.
Keeping it Close
Buffalo had 1:48 and two timeouts to use before halftime. A nine yard completion to Cooper got them to midfield, and a 12 yard pass to Coleman got them in field goal range. On 2nd and 10 from KC’s 34 yard line, Allen threw a rainbow to Hollins who made an amazing over the shoulder catch for a touchdown, despite a flag being thrown for defensive pass interference. The Bills attempted a two-point conversion tush push to make it a three point game, but it was stuffed by the Chiefs to keep their lead at five going into halftime.
Bills Take the Lead
Mahomes started the second half with an 11 yard run up the middle. On third down three plays later, Brown was open in the flat for a gain of 15 to extend the drive. Austin Johnson stuffed Hunt for a one yard loss on first down, and Mahomes was sacked by Milano on third down when trying to scramble to his left. The sack knocked them out of field goal range, forcing the Chiefs to punt.
Buffalo ran the ball almost every play on their first drive of the second half, including a 33 yard rush by Cook to quickly move the Bills into KC territory. Four plays later on 4th and 1, Allen ran a QB power to the right for three yards to keep the drive alive. Following an eight yard run by Johnson, Allen kept a read-option that fooled the defense, and turned it into a 13 yard gain up the middle. A quick pass to Dawson Knox got the Bills down to the one yard line, but Cook and Allen were both stuffed, bringing up 4th and Goal. On a speed option to the right, Allen ran but was forced to pitch the ball to Cook, who dove for the goal line through contact and broke the plane for a touchdown. Buffalo’s second two-point conversion attempt was also unsuccessful, with Allen pressured while in the pocket and losing the ball before he could get the throw off.
Tush Push Struggles
A three-and-out from the Chiefs gave the Bills an opportunity to extend their one point lead. On 3rd and 1, Allen’s tush push was stuffed by Chris Jones for no gain. On the first play of the fourth quarter, Allen superman dove over the line to get the first down, but lost the football on his way down. Allen was able to recover the ball at the bottom of the pile, but Buffalo’s struggles to gain just one yard continued. Four plays later, on 4th and 1, Allen’s tush push appeared to reach the line to gain, but a bad spot by the line judge made the ruling on the field short of a first down. After replay review, the call on the field stood, despite Allen appearing to get the first down from multiple replay angles.
KC capitalized on the turnover on downs quickly, with Smith-Schuster beating Rasul Douglas downfield for a 29 yard gain. Two runs from Hunt gaining 13 total yards set up 1st and Goal, and Mahomes took a read-option 10 yards into the endzone for a touchdown. KC was successful on their two-point attempt, with Mahomes finding Justin Watson in the back of the endzone.
Bills Tie the Game
Following a nine yard checkdown to Cook, a play-action bootleg left Cook open in the flat again, taking the catch 23 yards and into KC territory. On 3rd and 8, Allen connected with Hollins again deep down the middle, with the receiver getting dragged down at the four yard line for a 32 yard gain. Following a sack and two incomplete passes, it was 4th and Goal once again. Allen found Curtis Samuel open in the back of the endzone for the game-tying touchdown.
What Else Did You Expect?
A 15 yard facemask penalty on Milano moved KC to midfield. Following an 11 yard completion to Kelce, Worthy was schemed wide open for a catch and run of 23 yards. In man coverage, Taron Johnson ran into both Hamlin and Milano while trying to keep up with the speedy rookie. On 1st and Goal, Mahomes was immediately pressured and sacked by Jordan Phillips up the middle. Two incomplete passes forced KC to kick a 35-yard field goal to take the lead. Down by three with 3:33, the ball was in Allen’s hands to win the game.
Allen scrambled for a 13 yard gain to earn an early first down, but he and Shakir weren’t on the same page for a potential big gain on the next play. Following a five yard screen pass to Cooper on 3rd and 10, Buffalo’s season was on the line on 4th and 5 from their own 47. I’ve read and watched many, many breakdowns of this play, and here’s what it comes down to; Allen should’ve been able to recognize that there was a blitz coming from his right, or at the very least, should’ve made sure to slide the protection in that direction. Allen also makes an incredible throw that gives Kincaid a great chance to make the play, but he doesn’t. You can’t say the entire game comes down to that play, it was far from Buffalo’s only mistake. It was, however, their last mistake of the season.
With the ball back, Pacheco gets a first down on the ground, but goes out of bounds, technically keeping the game within reach. On 3rd and 9, Samaje Perine gets open out of the backfield thanks to a legal pick play, and that’s the ballgame.
Afterthoughts
Another year, another loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs. This team was about as healthy as you could hope, although losing Benford mid-game definitely hurt. It doesn’t come down to one play, one player, one coach, or the referees.
This loss is tough to analyze because you can’t point to one thing as the main issue. The offense scored four touchdowns, the defense got stops in the second half when you needed them, and you had the ball down by three with plenty of time to tie or take the lead.
According to David Helman on Twitter/X (@davidhelman_), “Dating back to 1972, NFL teams that have scored 4 touchdowns and committed 0 turnovers in a playoff game are 85–6. The Bills’ last two playoff losses at Arrowhead are 2 of the 6.”
From @OptaSTATs, “The Bills are the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game in 5 straight seasons but not reach the Super Bowl in any of them.”
The biggest surprise from the offense was how ineffective the tush push was. Normally a gimme play to move the chains or score from the one yard line, KC stuffed it more times than not, and the Bills didn’t try anything else in short yardage situations.
Mack Hollins came up big twice for the Bills, catching three passes for 73 yards. Shakir’s team-leading six catches were a source of consistency and reliability in the passing game as always.
Buffalo’s defense did a great job defending the run for the most part, with Hunt averaging 3.8 yards per carry and Pacheco down at 2.4. Furthermore, Kelce was held to just two catches for 19 yards and Hopkins one catch for 11.
Game Awards:
Offensive Player of the Game: Josh Allen
Allen made some fantastic plays, finishing with 22 completions for 237 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 39 rushing yards on the ground. His first two passes could’ve been picked off leading to a three-and-out to start the game, and not sliding the protection to the right on the last offensive play are the two big ‘knocks’ for me. He did more than enough to win this game, especially on his last play, but it wasn’t a perfect game from him either.
Defensive Player of the Game: Ed Oliver
Oliver was the X-Factor going into the playoffs, and he delivered. Four total tackles and a fumble recovery, the lone turnover of the game, Oliver was a big part of stuffing the run and getting interior pressure on Mahomes. NextGen Stats listed him as the best pass rusher on the Bills in terms of average distance away from the QB on passing downs.
MVP: James Cook
Cook had an exceptional day on Sunday, taking 13 carries for 85 yards (6.5 yards per rush) and two touchdowns, along with three catches for 49 yards. He was explosive on the ground and through the air, fought for every inch on his second touchdown, and was the motor of the offense for many of the drives. Typically, good things happen when you ‘let James cook’.
What’s Next?: Offseason
The Chiefs and Eagles will face off in the Super Bowl in two weeks, then it’s onto free agency and the draft. To anyone still reading, thank you for your support this season, and Go Bills!
Editor’s babble: And we thank you, Colin Richey, for your terrific contributions to our blog. You can also find Colin on Xwitter @whatthef00tball.
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