Sunday, January 26, 6:30 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Weather: 30s and calm
Latest Line: Bills+2, over/under 48.5
Two down, two to go. This week writes another chapter in Mahomes vs Allen, the preeminent QB matchup of the 20s. Want to know what we are playing for? For the Chiefs, the chance to become the first threepeat in NFL History. For the Bills, the chance to exorcise 60 years of demons and FINALLY make the dream come true. Who moves on?
The Breakdown:
QB:
As much as it makes me nauseous, I have to acknowledge the incredible dominance of Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady before him, in the playoffs. Talent wise, I still lean Josh Allen and Peyton Manning in debating the great QB rivalries. But the rings win out in the end. Josh will get one, and there is no better time than the present. Even.
Run Game Weapons: This version of the Bills is thriving on old fashioned smash mouth football. Pacheco and Hunt are solid, and Mahomes is very good at picking his spots. I like the Bills’ mix last week: 50% James Cook, 25% Ray Davis/Ty Johnson, and 25% Josh. Advantage Buffalo.
Passing Game Weapons:
Can Buffalo contain Travis Kelce? The rest of the Chiefs receiving corps is probably past their prime (Hopkins and Schuster) or not quite there yet (Worthy). If Kelce is the #1 threat in the game, I would take Shakir, Cooper, Coleman, and Kincaid as 2-3-4-5. Advantage Buffalo.
Offensive Line:
The no All Pro Bills Offensive Line is the best in the AFC. Joe Thuney has moved to Left Tackle, which may make the Chiefs more vulnerable to interior pressure. Advantage Buffalo.
Run Defense:
KC’s 4-3 scheme favors their run defense versus the Bills 4-2-5, and having LBs like Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal will make it a challenge. No Derrick Henry in the opposing backfield at least for Buffalo! Advantage KC.
Pass Defense:
It’s a big stage this week for Bills rookie S Cole Bishop, and his play might tip the scales here. Assuming Benford is healthy, the rest of the matchup is close. And after last week, where neither Mahomes nor Allen threw much to the WRs, it’s harder to call this one. Trent McDuffie is the best DB in the game, but that is less of a factor against the diversity of the Bills passing game. I expect to see the Chiefs test the Bills secondary early with Xavier Worthy. Slight advantage KC.
Special Teams: Insert the “Anxious” emoji here. The weather doesn’t look like a factor. The Chiefs have excelled in all facets of special teams play for as long as I can remember. I would sign now for a neutral performance. Advantage KC.
Coaching:
The Bills have to get over the hump before I can get away with calling it even, but the chess game between Joe Brady and Steve Spagnuola is as fascinating as Allen/Mahomes. And we are dying to learn what Bobby Babich has cooked up for Kelce. Slight advantage KC.
Intangibles:
Two stand out; the extra scrutiny on the officials. and the look in Josh Allen’s eyes.
The Forecast:
It wasn’t always pretty, but to not play your best and still go 15-2 can’t be easily dismissed. But three things are different around the attempt for the summit. The Bills have a Championship Caliber OL. The Bills have a Championship Caliber running game. And the Bills have the very best version of Josh Allen.
Buffalo 31 Kansas City 26.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Cheeseburgers with bacon, cheddar, onions, and KC BBQ sauce.
Beer:
Keeping it simple and Bills Mafia with Labatt Blue Light Longnecks.
Music:
I have to pay tribute to the passing of Garth Hudson, the last surviving member of The Band.
- The Night They Drove Ole Dixie Down.
- The Shape I’m In.
- Life Is A Carnival.
- Don’t Do It…..DONCHA break my heart!
Stay classy, Bills Mafia. Laissez les bon temps roulez!
Editor’s babble: Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his Fedora Forecasts. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869. Go Bills!
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