Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos came to Orchard Park for the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs. Going into the game, Buffalo had won in the Wild Card round in each of the last four seasons, and they’d keep their streak alive on Sunday with a 31–7 victory over the Broncos.
Rookie Connection Torches Defense
After receiving the opening kickoff, the Broncos faced an early third and long thanks to a Greg Rousseau tackle-for-loss, but were able to move the chains on a 19 yard completion to Courtland Sutton over the middle. Two plays later, Nix connected on a bomb to fellow Oregon rookie Troy Franklin, who simply ran past the defense to catch the 43 yard toss. The play was the first rookie to rookie touchdown in the history of the NFL playoffs. Just like that, Denver had an early 7–0 lead.
That’s Enough, Denver
After a quick touchdown under three minutes into the game, Denver would not score another point, with the Bills dropping 31 unanswered to run away with the victory. The onslaught started slowly, with the Bills settling for a 26-yard field goal from Tyler Bass on their opening drive. Two plays earlier, Allen and Knox failed to connect on what would’ve been a wide open touchdown, but the throw was slightly off and Knox couldn’t secure two hands on the football.
Buffalo’s defense forced a three-and-out, with Matt Milano recording a sack on 3rd and 6 to force the punt. The linebacker was QB spying Nix, who tried to roll to his right to extend the play. While there have been questions regarding Milano’s performance since his return from injury, the former All-Pro showed off his athleticism as he ran stride for stride with Nix trying to turn the corner, forcing him out of bounds for a loss of one yard.
The rushing attack from Buffalo was dominant throughout, and no play was a better summary of that than a run by Cook that should’ve been a gain of three or four, as he was stood up by multiple defenders. However, Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown, and Connor McGovern pushed the pile forward for an additional 12 yards. The crowd went wild as Buffalo’s offensive line imposed their will on what is a talented Denver defense. Allen ran for seven on 3rd and 3, and found Curtis Samuel for a gain of seven on 3rd and 5 to keep the drive alive. Following three straight run plays, Cook darted up the middle for a five yard touchdown run.
After two incompletions from Nix trying to connect with Sutton, it appeared as if Denver would punt again. However, Sean Payton had other ideas, as punter Riley Dixon threw a beautiful spiral to wide receiver and gunner Marvin Mims for a 15 yard completion on 4th and 8. When Nix tried to connect with Mims on a screen pass two plays later, Terrel Bernard quickly shed his block and tackled Mims three yards behind the line of scrimmage. Von Miller’s quick pressure forced Nix to throw the ball away on third down, with Denver actually punting this time around.
Pinned back at their own one yard line, a nine yard run by Cook gave the offense some breathing room. Eventually, Buffalo would punt after Allen was sacked on 2nd and 13 for an eight yard loss, stalling the drive. On the punt, Mack Hollins split two defenders guarding him, and delivered a crushing, yet perfectly-timed hit on Mims, who somehow held onto the football. Even on punts, the Bills were making their presence felt.
With 1:52 and three timeouts, Denver had the time to get into field goal range for veteran kicker Will Lutz. A 12 yard run from Nix followed by an 11 yard completion to Sutton moved the Broncos to midfield. Sutton reeled in a 21 yard completion along the sideline to get into kicking range, but Lutz’s 50-yarder doinked off the upright as time expired in the first half.
Following two six yard runs by Cook to start the second half, Allen found Knox wide open downfield for a 25 yard gain. Cook cut through Denver’s defense for a 19 yard gain to move inside the 10 yard line. Allen was sacked on 3rd and Goal when none of his receivers could get open, and there was no flag despite an obvious holding penalty on Patrick Surtain while guarding Dalton Kincaid. Buffalo settled for a 27-yard field goal.
Franklin dropped a pass from Nix on 3rd and 5 that would’ve moved the chains, but a costly drop from the rookie led to another Denver three-and-out.
It feels like once a game, Khalil Shakir makes a play that seems to defy the laws of physics. Against the Broncos, that play came after he caught the ball on a shallow crossing route, and turned upfield with room to run. As a group of three Broncos ran towards him, 6’ 3” 235 lb linebacker Justin Strnad drove his shoulder into the receiver. 6’ 0” 190 lb Shakir bounced off the tackle attempt, staying on his feet to gain an extra few yards before being pushed out of bounds.
Following the 13 yard completion to Shakir, a holding penalty on Buffalo was negated by a Denver unnecessary roughness two plays later, when a ‘hospital ball’ from Allen led to Ray Davis getting hit in the helmet as a defenseless receiver. A 13 yard completion to Knox moved the Bills into scoring range, and it was time for Allen to work his magic. On 4th and 1 from the 24 yard line, I was screaming at my TV when the Bills didn’t line up in ‘tush push’ formation. Instead, Allen dropped back, looked to run but couldn’t, and was forced to improvise. He gave Ty Johnson a chance in the back of the endzone to make a play, with the running back laying out to catch the ball located slightly behind him. Somehow, Johnson corralled the pass and got his knee down in bounds before his foot was out of bounds, never losing control of the ball during the catch process. A two point conversion completion to Keon Coleman gave the Bills a 21–7 lead.
A false start on Denver turned 3rd and 6 into 3rd and 11, with Damar Hamlin making a diving swap to prevent the completion down the middle to Mims. Another drive, another three-and-out for the Broncos. A 23 yard punt return from Shakir, filling in for the injured Brandon Codrington, gave Buffalo the ball around midfield for their next possession. On the first play of the fourth quarter, facing 3rd and 6, Allen connected with Curtis Samuel on a crossing route, who had created separation from Surtain. After catching the ball around the 30 yard line, Samuel slammed on the breaks and cut back inside, running right past Surtain. After breaking a diving tackle attempt from a desperate defender, Samuel ran the final ten yards into the endzone for a 55 yard score.
The Broncos finally found their offense, thanks to an 18 yard run from Nix up the middle and a 13 yard completion to Sutton. Another Nix run, this time for 11, set up Denver at Buffalo’s 22 yard line. A three yard tackle-for-loss from Christian Benford on Mims pushed them in the wrong direction. Sutton got most of the yards back on 3rd and 13, with Bernard making a diving tackle two yards before the first down marker. On 4th and 2, Nix took the play action bootleg to his right, immediately checking it down to running back Jaleel McLaughlin. Cam Lewis flew over to make the tackle short of the line to gain, forcing a turnover on downs.
On an early third down for Buffalo, Allen connected with Johnson in the flat to move the chains and keep the clock draining. Allen hit Dalton Kincaid on a double move down the sideline for a gain of 35 yards. Although the replay showed that the ground helped Kincaid secure the catch, Buffalo got the next snap off before Payton could throw his challenge flag. Mack Hollins beat Surtain for a 19 yard gain, getting tackled just short of the endzone. As Hollins aggressively stepped over Surtain, he was flagged for 15 yards, ironically giving the Bills more room to run down the clock. Eventually, Bass drilled a 34-yard field goal to conclude the drive that took nearly seven minutes off the clock.
Nix was sacked by Rousseau on third down, and an incompletion on fourth down essentially ended the game. Mitch Trubisky got some action, handing the ball off twice to Johnson before taking three knees and ending the game 31–7.
Afterthoughts
After Denver’s opening drive, I was worried about Buffalo’s defense. However, the unit completely buckled down on every possession afterwards, allowing just 224 total yards and 13 first downs. For comparison, Buffalo registered 471 total yards and 26 first downs!
Sutton made some nice plays, and got the best of Benford on several reps, finishing with five catches for 75 yards. However, unless Buffalo faces Nico Collins and the Texans in the AFC Championship game, there isn’t another receiver left in the AFC that is as talented. Despite the pass rush being a major concern heading into the playoffs, and the eye test leaving something to be desired, NextGen Stats credited the Bills with pressure on 51.9% of Nix’s dropbacks, the highest rate surrendered by Denver’s talented offensive line this season. We’ll see what they can do against another talented offensive line next week, but Rousseau and Miller both had some great reps on the outside to lead to immediate pressures on Nix.
On the flip side, although Josh Allen was sacked twice, after rarely being sacked in the regular season, Brett Kollmann had Buffalo allowing just six pressures on the day. Spencer Brown “pitched a shutout” as he explained on X/Twitter @BrettKollmann, surrendering zero pressures.
This Broncos defense is legit. They were the #4 ranked DVOA defense this season, with a DPOY contender in Patrick Surtain, and second-team All Pros Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen on the defensive line. Safety Brandon Jones also received five second-team votes. Although it took a little while for the offense to find their rhythm, this was another stellar Josh Allen playoff performance, especially given this context. Not to mention, of his 272 passing yards, only 13 of them came from Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman. (Everybody Eats!)
Speaking of everybody eating, Sunday was Curtis Samuel’s day to have a larger portion than usual. He set a season-high with his team-leading 68 receiving yards, while also finding the endzone for just the second time as a Bill. Joe Brady consistently used him in motion to distract the defense, and he moved the chains on third down on two of his receptions.
The Bills converted just over half of their third downs, going 8/15, while also going 2/2 on 4th downs, but their biggest struggle was in the redzone. Buffalo was 1/5 in the redzone against the Broncos, a mark that will need to be better in the coming weeks. Granted, Allen missed Knox on the opening drive, and Kincaid should’ve drawn a holding penalty on another drive to set up first and goal, so I’m not too worried about this long term. Just think of what the score could’ve been if Buffalo capitalized on those drives.
Game Awards
Offensive Player of the Game: James Cook
Cook was dominant against the Broncos, totaling 120 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, for an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Credit goes to the offensive line as well, for paving the way and pushing the pile when Cook did get stuffed.
Defensive Player of the Game: Matt Milano
It’s very refreshing to see Milano getting an award after how much time he’s missed, and his inconsistent play since he’s been back. While I doubt we see him return to his All-Pro form, this was the best he’s looked all season, and getting anything close to that production next week against Baltimore would be a major addition to this defense. He finished the game with five total tackles and a sack on third down, and was a successful QB spy against the sneaky-athletic Nix.
MVP: Josh Allen
Josh Allen loves picking apart top defenses in the playoffs. He finished the day 20/26 for 272 yards and two touchdowns, while also adding 46 rushing yards on eight carries. Although he was sacked twice, Allen had another clean slate in the turnover column, which has been the new normal for him this season.
What’s Next: Bills vs Ravens 1/19
The two All Pro QBs and MVP candidates will go head-to-head in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, with the winner likely traveling to Kansas City to face Patrick Mahomes. Would you want it any other way? Buffalo has the chance to exorcise some serious demons this week against a Baltimore team that blew them out in Week 4. Want some optimism? Buffalo was without the entire backbone of their defense in the 35–10 loss, and will now have Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, and Taron Johnson all on the field to help stop Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and we all know what happened the last time Taron Johnson faced Lamar Jackson in the playoffs…
Editor’s babble: We are grateful for Colin Richey’s contributions to our blog. You can also find Colin on Xwitter @whatthef00tball.
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