Sunday, December 29 at 1 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
Weather: Rain, 50s, winds picking up.
Latest line: Bills-10, over/under 46
I will share my comment to my Bills text chain after a pedestrian victory over the cellar dwelling Patriots: Good enough for KC, good enough for me. In a too long regular season, elite teams have to find a way to win when the A-game isn’t there. Once again, the defensive adjustments played a major role in securing win number 12.
I have to note yet another “if only the game were played 24 hours earlier” weather forecast. The rain will probably present more of an issue to the fans, especially those that park a little farther out and hike up Southwestern Blvd. The expected winds might influence the decision of the coin flip winner; I want the wind in the 4th Quarter.
The Jets are at least as dangerous as the Patriots coming to Highmark, with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams reliving their Packer days. Can the Bills take care of business and wrap up the #2 seed?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Most of us are tired of the MVP squabbling. It should be close, Josh deserves it, but if it goes to Lamar it won’t matter January 19th. Aaron Rodgers has averaged 300 yards passing the past three weeks and even led the Jets in rushing in their recent win over the Jaguars. But if someone told you before the season that Rodgers would play every game AND add Adams to Garrett Wilson, you would not have predicted 4-11. Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
Because they were in the same draft class, it’s fun to compare Breece Hall and James Cook. Both are very good, but the one drafted 63rd might have surpassed the one selected 36th. Is Ty Johnson becoming what we originally hoped James Cook would be? Add in Josh Allen and Ray Davis, and it’s a rout. Advantage Bills.
Pass Game Weapons:
There aren’t many pairs better than Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, and Breece Hall is one of the best pass catching RBs in the NFL, but then it falls off a cliff. Buffalo has some nice players and everyone eats. I have one last plea for a Dalton Kincaid breakout game for any Fantasy Owners who expected more than 2 TDs in 2024. Advantage Jets.
Offensive Line:
Here begins some of the explanation of why the Jets are 4-11. I read somewhere this week that the Jets OL was statistically in the #24-25 range. The Bills are the best in the AFC. Have a good day today and get next week off. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
A look at the team rushing yards allowed table finds the Bills slightly ahead of the Jets, while the Jets lead in yards per carry. If healthy, Quinnen Williams gives the Jets a slight edge.
Pass Defense:
No argument here, with the assumption that Sauce Gardner plays. The Bills will lean into injury management in the secondary as well they should, Rasul Douglas’ return should help against the Jets dynamic duo. Advantage Jets.
Special teams:
It’s not easy to have enough confidence this season to give this category to Buffalo but today is one of those days. I will take Bass over Carlson in these weather conditions and have a hunch Brandon Codrington will have something special for his old team. Advantage Bills.
Coaching:
Lifetime records: Jeff Ulbrich 1-6 Sean McDermott 89-50. That is without discussing coordinators. Coaching beats out the OL as the #1 reason the Jets are 4-11. Huge advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
The Bills are playing for a guaranteed 2 home playoff games; the Jets are playing for spite. I never underestimate spite.
The Forecast:
Bills 31 Jets 24
The Bills will find a way, but don’t lay the double digits.
The Pregame Plan
Food:
Fans of the comedies Seinfeld and Parks and Recreation will relate to today’s choice: CALZONES!
Beer:
There were Crowlers from New York Beer Project underneath the Christmas tree this year, and Santa knows I am all about flagships IPAs. I’m enjoying fresh Destination IPA; I also highly recommend their Game Day Wit.
Music:
A block of the finest classic rock “rain songs”
- Let It Rain….Eric Clapton.
- November Rain…Guns and Roses.
- Who’ll Stop The Rain…CCR.
- Fool In The Rain…Led Zepplin.
Wishing you all a happy and healthy 2025! May we all meet in LaFayette Square in February. Go Bills!
Editor’s babble: Indeed! Happy New Year! Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his Fedora Forecasts. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
BuffaloFAMbase.com is sponsored by 26 Shirts
Every Monday, we launch a new two-week campaign of a limited edition t-shirt design. Every shirt purchase results in a donation to a local family in need. After the campaign ends, the shirt is retired. A new design is released, and a new family benefits from your fandom!
