Sunday, December 22, 4:25 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
Weather: Calm and very cold (single digits).
Latest Line: Bills -14, over/under 46.5.
All hail Josh Allen! The past four games were the most entertaining QB stretch I’ve ever seen. We follow that up with what looks to be three games with far less significance against opponents rightfully more concerned with their draft spot come April. If the future is an 18 game schedule, I hope the schedule algorithm accounts for possibilities like this year. Meaningless December games are a marketing nightmare. With 3 weeks to go the only open playoff spot seems to be the NFC West title winner, and a few other seeding battles are in play. The Networks were already forced to flex a 14 point spread contest in Week 16.
As far as the Bills are concerned, there were plenty of eras where a stretch of semi meaningless games before the playoffs would concern me, but the Bills culture has risen to a level where it doesn’t. How will today’s game turn out?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Drake Maye is an outstanding building block for the Patriots franchise, but it’s not farfetched to observe that the other 10 spots will be occupied by new players before Maye’s playoff window opens. What more can be said about Josh? There will be time enough for counting when the dealing is done. Is it too late to ask for a Sports Thesaurus for Christmas? We are running out of superlatives. Prohibitive advantage Bills.
Run game weapons:
James Cook is chasing OJ Simpson’s Bills single season rushing TD record, needing 3 to tie and 4 to gain the top spot. Looking at the schedule, I would bet on it. Rhamondre Stevenson used to dangerous…his 3.8 yards per carry and 5 fumbles this season says those days have passed. Ray Davis has been solid when he gets opportunities, and he should see more work the next three weeks. Huge Advantage Bills.
Pass game weapons:
If Ty Johnson can sustain his Fred Jackson impersonation, oh my. Imagine the futures of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid. Amari Cooper and his HOF resume drew the attention of the Lions last week, and didn’t even receive a target. Oh yeah…Khalil Shakir is emerging as a top tier slot WR. Another huge advantage Buffalo.
Offensive line:
After thoroughly outshining the Lions vaunted OL, the opponent this week has one of the league’s poorest units. Will any of the Bills unit get All Pro consideration? Maybe not, but the ONLY goal they care about is the Lombardi Trophy. The Patriots need a complete rebuild here for their young QB, Once again, huge advantage Buffalo.
Run defense:
In the attempt to try to find anything that might favor the Patriots, I went to the yards per carry table. The Patriots are indeed better in that category, but what struck me was that 29/32 NFL teams allow 4+ yards per carry. The math never fully backed “three yards and a cloud of dust”, but four yards and a spray of rubber pellets is a winning formula in winter weather. The Patriots get a slight nod here.
Pass defense:
With both teams missing key members of their secondaries, it might be hard to gauge. UNTIL you factor in the pass rush and the ability to protect the QB. Advantage Bills.
Special teams:
The Bills have been inconsistent, but they have three weeks to develop some consistency in a low impact setting. Nothing exciting on the Pats side. Even.
Coaching:
It won’t go down that way, but if the Bills go 14-3 I fully believe Sean McDermott is deserving of Coach of the Year honors. Jarod Mayo’s tenure looks to be on borrowed time. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles: This week at least, faint hopes exist for the #1 seed.
The Forecast:
Bills 34 Patriots 13
Nothing fancy is necessary.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Once upon a time I worked in the kitchen of a four star restaurant, and I trace my obsession with Soup to that experience. A steaming Bowl of New England Clam Chowder on a frigid Sunday evening is an exquisite pleasure.
Beer:
The perfect complement to the bowl of chowder is Allagash White from Portland, Maine, my favorite Belgian Wheat beer.
Music:
Some classic country Christmas Classics for the Holidays:
- Blue Christmas-Elvis Presley, OR Porky Pig.
- Rocking Around The Christmas Tree-Brenda Lee.
- Daddy Looked A Lot Santa-Buck Owens.
- Holly Jolly Christmas-Burl Ives.
Merry Christmas to all! Prayers for the Sabres please. Go Bills!
Editor’s babble: Ahhhhhh, let’s hope the Bills play the team from Boston (NE) better than the Sabres did against the Bruins. Ugh. My heart is broken, but thankfully we have the Bills. Division games are always different, let’s hope the cold weather brings the same outcome as the last time the Bills played NE in cold weather. Merry Christmas to everyone reading this post. We are grateful for Joe Reagan’s ‘Fedora Forecasts’. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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