With 3 weeks to go in the NFL regular season, the Bills can still knock off the 2-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC top seed, but they’ll need a little help. The Steelers loss to the Eagles moved them below the Bills for the 2 seed.
Now at 11-3 after a 48-42 road win over the Detroit Lions, ending their 11 game winning streak, the Bills have the 29th easiest schedule remaining. It looks like an easy three wins, but it probably won’t be that way. They’re division games against teams with nothing to lose.
Next Sunday the Bills host the 3-11 New England Patriots, and are 14 point favorites. They host the 4-10 Jets a week later, and finish at NE January 5th. Not to bring up a sore subject, but Josh Allen won’t have the luxury of perfect conditions like he enjoyed at Ford Field against the powerhouse Lions.
On the other hand, Allen and the Bills are pretty darn good in bad weather. Not only is that true for Allen, but James Cook (14-105 2td v Lions) can be a mudder as well. Early weather reports thankfully don’t show any big storms headed this way, but it will be in the teens for the 4:25 pm ET kick off at Highmark Stadium.
But back to Sunday’s indescribable effort by Allen and the Bills. Vegas now has the Bills as the Super Bowl favorite at +375, followed by the Eagles at +400 and Lions and Chiefs at +450.
It was an offensive explosion in what many folks think is a Super Bowl LIX preview. Allen, who should be saving a spot at home for an MVP trophy, continued his amazing production by converting 23-34 for 362 yards and 2 TD’s, while using his legs for another 68 yards rushing and 2 more TDs. The Lions Jared Goff, also in the MVP discussion, had 59 attempts and was just under 500 yards with five touchdowns.
While those numbers are eye catching, they don’t begin to reflect the game itself. The Bills D jumped on the Lions, forcing punts on their first two possessions, and Allen carved up the injury riddled Lions D with two quick and efficient TD drives to make it 14-0 early. Allen and OC Joe Brady are singin’ the same tune! Some of Allen’s throws on scrambles were plays you have to watch again to be sure you’re not imagining things. One such play came early, as Allen scrambled left, and at full speed, threw across his body to lead James Cook – running left to right – for a big gainer.
How do you defend THAT?
The Bills gambled a bit defensively by loading up to stop the run early, and it helped the game play out as a shootout. Goff was constantly playing from behind, and the running game was forgotten. In fact, the Lions were held to under 50 yards rushing, by far their lowest total of the season. DT Ed Oliver, who was probably aware his effort is being questioned, played his best game of the season with several pressures and a sack.
Because the Bills D focused on limiting the home runs – with oh by the way 3 DB starters out – the Lions ate up yardage but remained 2-3 scores behind the entire game. Their final TD came with just a few seconds left, making the score closer than it really was.
Still, giving up over 40 points in two straight games is worrisome. You can’t sugar coat that. One saving grace is the Bills ability to force turnovers while limiting their own. The Bills and Steelers are tied for the top turnover differential at plus 18 – with the Bills charged with only 7 turnovers in 14 games. All of those are on Allen, with 5 INTs and two fumbles, but he’s also produced a combined 36 TD’s!
Despite the loss, the Lions are still the NFL Power Index favorite to reach the SB at 32.8%. Next? The Buffalo Bills at 30.7%. KC is #3 at 26.7%. Interestingly, the Bills offense is ranked #1 in the Power Index efficiency rankings, with the Baltimore Ravens at #3. Everybody’s loving the surging Philadelphia Eagles about now, with good reason, but the 12-2 Eagles have one of the NFL’s easiest schedules. It might surprise you the Bills have the league’s 8th toughest strength of schedule. The Chiefs? They’re #23.
Speaking of the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in their 21-7 win at Cleveland, and we don’t know if he’ll play this week at home against a good Texans team. We know Mahomes though, and if he can stand up, he’ll probably play. But the final 2 games aren’t pushovers. At Pittsburgh and at Denver. Both are playoff teams with great defenses.
If the Bills win out as they’ll be favored to do, they’ll finish 14-3. The Bills have the tie breaker by handing the Chiefs their only loss, but their 13-1 means they’d need to drop 2 of their last 3 for the Bills to get the 1 seed, a bye and 2 home games. It’s likely the Bills will wind up the 2 seed, so another @KC game is looming.
Call me crazy, but the Chiefs are the Bills biggest hurdle to get to New Orleans. Mahomes, who isn’t having his usual great season, is still the king until somebody knocks him off. The Ravens blasted the Bills earlier this season in Baltimore, but if the Bills get them in OP, I think they’ll outscore them.
Notice only two of the AFC teams vying for playoff spots play outdoors. Right now, the Chiefs would have a bye, with the Bills hosting the LA Chargers. The Bills, Steelers, Ravens and Broncos are winter ready. The Chargers and Texans? We’ll see.
One thing I’ve learned after covering the NFL – earlier in Houston but mostly in Buffalo – is that you should never assume anything. I hate seeing fans predict easy wins, because so many things can happen in any game. The Patriots are by no mean awful, but the Bills D should keep them under 20 or so. The Jets are showing some life, and even though he’s not the Aaron Rodgers of old, he’s still used to bad weather and can make plays.
The Bills have been extremely good under HC Sean McDermott at not looking ahead. Focus on the moments. Respect but don’t fear any opponent.
C’mon, how many of you thought the Bills would be where they are right now?
Let’s all enjoy the ride!
Editor’s babble: I love this post by Ed Kilgore. His perspective from decades of experience is priceless. You can also find Ed on Xwitter @Kilgore2Ed. Happy Holidays!
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Awesome, realistic perspective, Ed! I for one did not imagine the Bills being where they are right not. And, yes, one game at a time. Anything can happen. But, boy aren’t we all having fun! This is the most fun I’ve had being a Bills fan. GO BILLS!