Sunday, December 14, 4:25 p.m. ET
Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Weather: Dome
Latest line: Bills+2.5, over/under 54.5
It was a tough road loss to the Rams last week, but if you weren’t thoroughly entertained for three plus hours last Sunday, you may want to reevaluate your relationship with football. There will always be performance mistakes, coaching decisions, and controversial calls to pick apart in a loss, but the Bills/Rams game was far more about witnessing the best offensive football game of the season and Hall of Fame performances. Breathe in, breathe out, move on.
It’s really hard to root against the Lions. My first Lions memory was a 5-0 playoff loss to Dallas in 1970. Their playoff record from 1958-2022? 1-12. Tom Brady played in 48 playoff games. Comprehend that, suffering Sabres fans. I will root for them against anyone but Buffalo. Who gets the win this week?
The Breakdown:
QB:
It would be hard to find a trade as successful for both sides as the Stafford/Goff deal. Fit is everything. Props to Goff for reaching his #1 overall potential and a fine season. But to put him in the MVP conversation with Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley is flat out crazy. It’s nearly impossible to fully appreciate what Josh Allen is doing this season in real time, but what a blast to witness! Advantage Bills.
Run Game Weapons:
This category ended up meaningless in last week’s shootout, but that is unlikely this week. Gibbs and Montgomery are the best tandem in the NFL James Cook should be very fresh after his lightest workload of the season. Successful run games ought to keep the point total below 86 this week. Advantage Lions.
Pass Game Weapons:
How far apart are Amon St. Brown and Khalil Shakir right now? I would argue it’s too close too call, The Bills need to target Shakir more. Top 3 WRs in YAC? How about Chase. Shakir, Lamb. Even without Keon, hasn’t Hollins been a huge improvement over Gabe Davis’ 2023 season? With all the Bills aerial weapons finally healthy, this may be the last game they play in pristine conditions until February. Both good units and the RBs factor in too, but the Bills might be deeper. Even.
Offensive Line:
Two of the best in the league square off. The Lions have the edge in run blocking, and the Bills in pass blocking. in light of that, ball control and time of possession should be a bigger part of Detroit’s game plan than the Rams pedal to the metal game plan. Even.
Run Defense:
Even before getting into the players, the Lions traditional 4-3 scheme is a better run defense than the Bills 4-2-5, Will we see more 4-3 in Buffalo going forward with Dorian Williams, depending on matchups? Jack Campbell is a stud. The Bills DTs had a bad week in LA. Advantage Lions.
Pass Defense:
Healthy, the stats favor the Bills, but Douglas is out and the starting safeties are questionable to play at best. Good thing the Bills have quality depth. It would be a great time for Cole Bishop to shine. IF the Bills can scheme a decent amount of pressure on Goff (which they failed to do against Stafford) the absences shouldn’t decide the game. Even.
Special Teams:
The heat is back on Bills ST Coach Matthew Smiley, after suffering a blocked punt turned touchdown in a narrow loss to the Rams. Personnel wise, Spector’s return is a plus, I’ll take Tyler Bass over Lions replacement K Jake Bates. but the Bills have a lot to prove in the category before heading into the playoffs. Advantage Lions.
Coaching:
I doubt Dan Campbell gets second guessed anywhere near as much as Sean McDermott, but that seems dependent on how long it takes you to win a Super Bowl. They are both very good coaches at the moment on the same plateau, and the odds are good one will ascend to the next level in February. Even.
Intangibles:
As important as the #1 seed is in a SEVERELY FLAWED playoff format, neither team will finish any lower than #2 barring a collapse. The intangible that sticks out for me is the pride of the Bills defense after getting torched last week.
The Forecast:
On paper, it appears to be a one score win for the Lions, but two things lead me to an upset: regression to the mean by the Bills Defensive Line, and Joshua Patrick Allen.
Bills 34 Lions 31
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
If you are looking for something Detroit, I recommend skipping the Octopus, upside down pizza, and chili dogs. The common denominator for those iconic Detroit foods is the Greek influence. I like the aforementioned choices, but I love a good Gyro more.
Beer:
My favorite nationally distributed IPA, and finest representation of Centennial Hops is Bells Two Hearted Ale from Kalamazoo. It even inspired me to reread Hemingway short stories!
Music:
Why not a block of Lion songs?
- The Lion Sleeps Tonight-The Tokens.
- Welcome To The Jungle-Guns and Roses.
- Wondering Where The Lions Are-Bruce Cockburn.
- Samson and Delilah-The Grateful Dead.
Onward. Either way, we are still weeks away from the season that really matters.
Editor’s babble: I selected a picture of Lions’ LB Jack Campbell for the feature picture because I’m still grieving that they swiped him in the first round before the Bills could get him. I love your optimism, Joe. Here’s hoping it comes to fruition. Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his fantastic Fedora Forecasts. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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