Sunday, December 1 at 8:20 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
Weather: Upper 20s…snow…how much…?
Latest Line: Bills-6, over/under 44.5.
So many factors lean Buffalo’s way…health, weather, travel, recent form, Sean McDermott’s 7-0 record after the bye, the Mafia at home at night…and yet the line is less than a TD. Let’s see if we can figure out what SF bettors are pinning their hopes on.
QB:
It is trending that Brock Purdy will try to play; even if he’s 100% the degree of difficulty couldn’t be higher. Congratulations to our newly engaged QB! I’m sure the details going forward are in good hands and Josh is laser focused on this week’s game. If Lake Erie weather factors in at all, #17 is the best in the NFL. Advantage Bills.
Running game weapons:
This will be Christian McCaffrey’s fourth game since coming off IR. The first three were not up to his standards; but Murphy’s Law says the Bills will face the version that was RB1 in fantasy drafts this season. Jordan Mason filled in well while McCaffrey was out, Kyle Juszczyk is an endangered species as a fullback with a significant role. In what has been a renaissance year for RBs, James Cook is having a highly efficient and productive season. He’s currently tied for fourth in rushing TDs with 10, or third if you take Jalen Hurts and the tush push off the list. Slight advantage to the 49ers.
Passing game weapons:
What a difference three months makes. Coming into this season, the 49ers had the best set of aerial weapons in the league, featuring George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and McCaffrey. They never saw the field at the same time, and Aiyuk is out for the season. As for Buffalo, when it comes to the pass catchers, it’s fun to utter the phrase “the best is yet to come”. Better than 10-2? Absolutely. Amari Cooper and Curtis Samuel are only scratching the surface. Advantage Bills.
Offensive Line:
The 49ers are missing their starting LT Trent Williams and starting LG Aaron Banks. Ouch. It’s a reasonable approach to identify serious Super bowl contenders by the quality of the OL, and the teams that currently resemble that remark are led by the Lions, Eagles, and Bills. Most impressive about Buffalo in 2024 is quality depth, which is rare in the modern NFL. Give that Kromer guy a raise. Big advantage Bills.
Run defense:
The two run defenses sit only a few spots apart in the Team Rushing Yards Allowed table. I’m pretty sure hours of analysis would support a slight edge for the 49ers, but Fred Warner and a 4-3 scheme also add up to the same conclusion quickly. Advantage 49ers.
Pass Defense:
The 49ers are currently fourth in Passing Yards Allowed, the Bills seventh. BUT with elite edge rusher Nick Bosa out, and Coverage Linebacker extraordinaire Matt Milano in for the Bills, the scale tips. Advantage Bills.
Special Teams:
As good a year as it has been for RBs. it’s been a struggle for Kickers. Tyler Bass has weathered the storm that has shown no mercy to the likes of Justin Tucker and Jake Moody as well. It should be noted that touchbacks will be hard to come by at home going forward. Buffalo will go into the playoffs with more game experience than most at defending the new era kickoff returns. Bass should handle the elements better than Moody (his college days were on the other end of Lake Erie). Advantage Bills.
Coaching:
Two very different Head Coaches, but McDermott and Shanahan share the designation of “winningest active head coaches without a Super Bowl victory. McDermott holds the edge in winning percentage, .640 to .558. First one to win a Super Bowl gets a spot on the tier with Reid, Tomlin, and John Harbaugh. Like players, coaches have good and bad games, and good and bad seasons. McDermott is having a much better season than Shanahan. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
Three major ones:
- Health -the 49ers are in shambles and the Bills are the healthiest they have been all season.
- Weather-MAYBE the league doesn’t backload our home schedule next year?
- Desperation-the 49ers margin of error is tiny.
The Forecast:
I won’t underestimate #3. The sense is that the 49ers can keep it close, and the line reflects that. Can they overcome the injuries to Trent Williams and Nick Bosa and Mother Nature? No.
Buffalo 24 San Francisco 20
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
No more leftovers, or major effort. I’m getting a Wood Fired California Style Pizza.
Beer:
By the next time we play the 49ers in 2028, I am hoping that Anchor Steam is on the shelves at Wegman’s. For now, one of my favorite December seasonal’s, Sierra Nevada’s Celebration Fresh Hops IPA.
Music:
Musically, the Monterey Pop Festival was far better than Woodstock. June 16-18, 1967.
- Ball And Chain-Janis Joplin.
- Satisfaction-Otis Redding’s cover of the Rolling Stones hit.
- My Generation-The Who.
- Wild Thing-Jimi Hendrix.
The quest for the #1 seed continues.
Editor’s babble: Monterey Pop Festival? It probably wasn’t muddy, I’ll give it that much. Many thanks to Joe Reagan for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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