Bills’ ‘Rebuild’ Ahead of Schedule?

It’s impossible to predict the future, but if you’re paying attention, there are some clues that can help.

It’s probably ok to admit – if you were a Bills skeptic – that the Buffalo Bills are not only a true Super Bowl contender but right now one of the favorites. At 9-2 with 6 games left, the Bills will face the Patriots twice, the 49ers and Jets at home, the Rams in LA, and a possible SB preview at the 9-1 Detroit Lions Dec. 15th.

If only Ralph Wilson could still be alive for that one!

The Bills went through a significant overhaul during the 2024 off season, by saying so long to some veteran favorites and replacing them with younger and cheaper players, making it understandable there might be a brief pause in Josh Allen’s “Super Bowl window”. But “the process” is working. Snicker if you want, but GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott have stayed true to their philosophy of installing a healthy and positive culture.

The Bills are now 9-2 after an impressive 30-21 beatdown of the previously unbeaten two time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium. Hmm. Remember how many national media football experts were picking either the Jets or Dolphins to sack the Bills four year stranglehold on the AFC East? Turns out they were clueless. Aaron Rodgers alone proved how just one person can completely destroy a franchise – he already has gotten the HC and GM fired as the Jets have crashed to 3-8. The Dolphins, even with Tua Tagovailoa back, are 4-6 so good luck there, and the Patriots are 3-8 but improving.

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Back to business here, the bottom line is the Bills have exceeded expectations to the point even Nick Wright is finally saying some nice things. Not only a five game lead for a fifth straight division crown, but now within one game of KC for the coveted one seed. Josh Allen clearly outplayed Patrick Mahomes and is now the MVP favorite.

That’s not to sell Mahomes short. He’s got the rings, and KC is 9-1 despite his 15 TD’s and 11 INTs.

Chiefs fans of course will continue to point out the Bills four wins in this great rivalry were during the regular season, with the Chiefs 3-0 in playoff matchups. We might point out though, the Bills are :13 from winning four straight games at Arrowhead. Kinda something to think about.

Oh, getting a bye week would be great. No question. However, the Chiefs aren’t intimidated by playing in Orchard Park in front of Bills Mafia, but likewise the Bills have played some great football at Arrowhead Stadium. Having grown up a Chiefs fan, now totally flipped to Buffalo, I can say both teams have super fans and wonderful pre game love fests, or tailgates if you prefer.

We can’t say enough about the continued emergence of Josh Allen, because that’s the key to the Bills success and always has been. But the Bills organization should be recognized for putting him in the position to succeed. OC Joe Brady, now working in new WR’s like Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins into a group that had Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid already there, hardly missed a beat despite a philosophical change. Side note: Shakir is a close second to Allen as my favorite player. Darn he’s good! The run game features three solid RB’s in James Cook, (10 rushing TD’s) Ray Davis and veteran Ty Johnson, and their success really helps Allen. The Chiefs held them below average, but Brady stayed committed to the run and it paid off.

But more than all that, Brady has Allen playing smarter without losing his aggressiveness. Taking what’s there, while unafraid to go downfield if there’s a matchup he likes. Allen will always run more in key games, and that’s always a gamble. He’s started over 100 games in a row, which is almost unheard of for such a physical player. Allen’s mental toughness is off the charts, and the team knows it. He’s also made a point to cut down on turnovers, and it’s working. In fact, kudos to the entire Bills offensive staff, because the Bills, other than Allen, have yet to lose a fumble. That’s why the Bills lead the NFL with a plus 14.

Now McDermott is developing as well as a coach. Allen’s 4th and 2, 26 yard TD run with just over 2 minutes to play was the single most incredible play I’ve seen in over 40 years covering the Bills for Ch2. There have been others of course, but I can watch the replay all day long. A year ago in a similar situation, McDermott sent Tyler Bass out to tie the Chiefs in the Divisional playoff game, hoping the D could hold off Mahomes. We’ll never know, as the kick was wide right, and the Bills never got the ball back. KC went on to win another Super Bowl.

This time, McDermott said I’m letting Josh decide this, not Mahomes. If the Chiefs had stopped the play, they probably win the game. But even a Bass FG would have only given the Bills a five point lead with time enough for Mahomes to break their hearts again. I know fans are down on Bass right now – understandably – but there seems to be a group kicking slump all over. I’m still ok with him. Anyway, we all know what happened. Allen saw a crease, and turned on the jets. He was hit by five different KC players but barreled into the end zone. Just astonishing.

We talked about Brady, but DC Bobby Babich has put together a defense that is different, but maybe better than any of the Allen era. That’s saying a lot, but this group is tough up front, has improved it’s pass rush, and creates turnovers. They’re disciplined, for the most part, and seldom give up big plays. They’ve had enough depth to hold up with injuries, but the bye week couldn’t come at a better time.

With upcoming games against the 49ers (H) and Lions (A), the D will be tested.

Owner Terry Pegula hasn’t balked at a penny Beane wants to spend. It always starts with ownership. He also picked – finally – the right coach in McDermott, who easily convinced Pegula to add his friend Beane to put the right players on the field. But they also have been getting the right players off the field. ‘The Culture’ is real, and another clue that things are going better than expected, is that Beane/McDermott took a $31 million hit to add by subtraction in the Stefon Diggs divorce. Not blaming one player, but Bills players all admit privately the atmosphere in the locker room is more easy going these days. That’s certainly true on the sidelines.

We’re finally seeing what Beane/McDermott envisioned. The Oline is getting better and better. Allen wasn’t sacked against the Chiefs and was pressured on just 17% of his drops. Conversely, the Bills Dline is getting better, sacking Patrick Mahomes twice and pressuring him 38% of the time, resulting in two interceptions. The return of Von Miller is getting real. He’s now a factor again. He recorded his fourth sack and was close to a couple more. Greg Rousseau is now a dominant edge rusher, and his 5.5 sacks aren’t close to measuring his dominance. Rousseau is about to land a massive contract extension. AJ Epenesa has five sacks and is now playing his best football. Ed Oliver, despite what some think, is a force inside. Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas are true shutdown CB’s, and DB Taron Johnson may be the most underrated DB in the league.

You get the picture. LB Terrel Bernard has an interception and appears healthy after an ankle injury. Matt Milano is close to returning, and even if he’s gradually worked back into the rotation, he’s the defender you want in the BIG games.

Six games to go, but we have to endure a Sunday without the Bills.

It’s worth the wait!

Editor’s babble: Love Ed Kilgore (Gramps) and his perspective. We are grateful for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Ed on Xwitter @Kilgore2Ed.