Fedora Forecast: Chiefs at Bills

Sunday, November 17th at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
Weather: Overcast, low 50s, light wind.
Latest line: Bills -2.5, over/under 46.

Week 11 of 18 has arrived. Kudos to the schedule algorithm that produced what league bowlers refer to as “position week”. Commanders/Eagles, Ravens/Steelers, Chargers/Bengals, and of course, Chiefs/Bills…sorry about the MNF matchup though. As for Mahomes vs Allen, this is meeting #8, currently sitting at 4-3 in KC’s favor. The current 82.5% chance of the Chiefs earning the one seed might be a little discouraging. A Bills win this week would put a huge dent in that number. A loss and forget about it.

The Breakdown:

QB:

Whenever you compare two all-time greats who competed for years, you will find an ebb and flow. Not even Josh Allen gets into the career conversation without a ring, but the 2024 season falls in Josh’s favor so far. Mahomes: 12 TDs. 9 INTs Allen: 17 TDs. 4 INTs. This game provides a good test for the improvements in the mental component of Allen’s game. On most given Sundays I would call this even.

Run Game Weapons:

I was surprised to discover that Kareem Hunt has been in the league longer than Josh Allen. He peaked when Josh was wearing brown and yellow but remains “adequate”. James Cook brought the Angry Runs Scepter back to Buffalo this week. He may be the strongest argument in favor of this Bills team being the best in the McDermott/Allen era. It looks like Joe Brady is mixing and matching with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson depending on the opponent. The combined production is impressive. Advantage Bills.

Passing Game Weapons:

IF both sides were healthy, this would be a spirited debate. It’s still tight this week with Hopkins, Kelce, and Juju vs. Cooper, Shakir, and Knox. Perhaps Kelce tips the scales, but the Bills RBs should make an impact in the passing game Sunday. Even.

OL:

The strength of the KC line is the interior, led by Center Creed Humphrey. Tackles Wayne Morris and Jawaan Taylor are average, and sure do appear to be borderline offside much of the time. It would probably be best to let Spencer Brown’s ankle heal this week, but Alec Anderson has all my confidence if called upon. Narrow edge to the Bills this season, but they need to clean up the pre-snap penalties.

Run Defense:

The Chiefs 9-0 record has far more to do with their defense than the guys with all the endorsements. They might have 3 Pro Bowlers in their front 7 in Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, and George Karlaftis. The first and second half splits for the Bills rush defense are as wide as any in recent memory. Huge chunk runs explain a lot; curious how they seem to only happen in the first half. Advantage Chiefs.

Pass Defense:

Before looking at the numbers, my first thought was a slight advantage to the Chiefs. But when considering the Bills 25-19 advantage in sacks, and 11-5 advantage in interceptions, the scale goes past even to a slight advantage Bills.

Special Teams:

Perhaps the most impressive two areas of sustained excellence in the NFL have been the Steelers Defense and the Chiefs Special Teams. Even with a waiver wire kicker this week, I can’t move this category past even.

Coaching:

More important than the Reid/McDermott discussion is a tip of the cap to the best DC in the business, Steve Spagnuolo. May Bobby Babich ascend to that someday on the Bills sideline. Advantage Chiefs.

Intangibles:

Both teams are undefeated at home. The Bills lead in their division is actually larger than the Chiefs’ lead in the AFC West. It should be the most watched non-primetime game of the regular season.

The Forecast:

Who knows how the picture will look in January, but it’s a good bet the teams will give CBS an early Christmas present with a game decided by a late FG. Tyler Bass right down the middle this time.

Bills 24 Chiefs 21

The Pregame Plan:

Food:

If Wings are #1 and Beef on Weck is #2, can I nominate Kielbasa as Buffalo’s 3rd signature food? Wardzynski’s of course, with sauerkraut and potato salad.

Beer:

Mahomes/Allen is an elegant affair, deserving of breaking out my Stella Artois Chalice, one of my favorite beer glasses, and enjoying 600 years of Belgian Brewing.

Music:

In honor of the first concert ever held on our hallowed grounds, from the Eric Clapton setlist 7/6/74 at Rich Stadium:

1. Tell The Truth.
2. Blues Power.
3. Willie and The Hand Jive.
4. I’m A Steady Rolling Man.

Appreciate every Mahomes Allen matchup. We have been blessed.

Editor’s babble: It will be one for the ages, hopefully. Many thanks going out to Joe Reagan for his fabulous Fedora Forecasts. He can also be found on Xwitter @joer869.