If you’re one of the lucky ones with a ticket to Sunday’s Bills vs Chiefs clash at Highmark Stadium, I have a suggestion: bring some ear plugs!
The Bills and Chiefs have many things in common, and that’s especially true of their home fans. Both also have incredible tail gate parties leading up to the game, and the 4:45 p.m. ET kickoff guaranties extra time to loosen the vocal chords.
Already Chiefs’ media is playing up how disrespected the team feels by being a two point underdog – despite a perfect 9-0 record! Kinda silly to think they need any more reason to be sky high for this game as they chase an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl championship.
Most everybody picked the Chiefs to be in the SB hunt before this season started, but the majority of national NFL media expected the Bills to take a step back after unloading WR’s Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis along with some other aging vets. After that quick 3-0 start, it looked like the “everybody eats” approach might work out, but the Bills clearly needed to give Josh Allen some help. So after a couple disappointing road losses at Baltimore and Houston, the transition started with the addition of veteran Amari Cooper.
Cooper is listed as questionable after missing last week’s game at Indy with a wrist injury.
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Back to football.
Despite some key injuries, the Bills have now carved out five wins in a row to reach 8-2. While KC still has some competition in the AFC West from the 6-3 LA Chargers, the Bills enjoy an amazing five game lead in the AFC East. The Dolphins, with Tua Tagovailoa back, were impressive in a 23-15 road win over the Rams, but they’re just too far back. The Bills probably feel fortunate to not face them again after sweeping both meetings.
The Bills, despite a couple hiccups here and there, looked very focused in their 30-20 W at fading Indy. They put the lights out on the Colts decision to bench 2nd year QB Anthony Richardson for veteran Joe Flacco by picking off 3 passes – one a pick 6 on his first throw by Taron Johnson – and now Richardson is the starter again.
In all honesty, I was never that impressed with Richardson when he played at Florida. Cannon for an arm, but doesn’t handle pressure well at all, and his accuracy (44% so far at Indy) is suspect.
But that’s Indy’s problem.
The Bills forced four turnovers, and they are the NFL’s number ONE team with a plus 13 mark. If there is one statistical advantage over the Chiefs, this might be it. The Bills #1 at plus 13 while KC is minus 4 and in the lower third. Patrick Mahomes’ 9 interceptions against 12 TD’s is easily why there’s a poor number. Josh Allen on the other hand now has 17 TD passes and another 4 rushing TD’s, for an impressive 21 TD’s with only four INTs.
Speaking of which, do the INTs matter as much as everybody thinks? Detroits’ Jared Goff threw FIVE picks in an eventual 26-23 win at Houston, so what do we know?
The Bills-Chiefs matchup is not the best for the Bills injury-wise, although the Chiefs may not have LT Wanya Morris available. The way Greg Rousseau is playing for the Bills, that could be a matchup to watch. The Chiefs also thought they might get RB Isiah Pacheco back, but it looks like he won’t play Sunday. Top WR Rashee Rice is out for the season, which might be a factor in Mahomes numbers.
Rookie WR Xavier Worthy, the 4.2 speedster the Bills passed over for Keon Coleman, is playing well. He has 20 catches for 248 yards and 3 TD’s. Coleman though, has been impressive too, but is out with a wrist injury. Coleman has 22 catches on 18 fewer targets for 417 yards and 3 TDs. Funny how the Bills “gambled” with Coleman’s 4.61 speed, yet he’s averaging 19 yards per catch to Worthy’s 12.3. He’s also MUCH bigger with a huge catch radius.
So the Bills don’t have Coleman available, and Cooper is questionable with a wrist injury. They need him, with TE Dalton Kincaid also questionable with a knee from the Colts game. On the plus side, Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel have filled in admirably and may have to do it again. While RT Spencer Brown is questionable with an ankle, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t play in this one. LB Matt Milano – finally – is practicing again but he won’t be ready this week.
Looking at special teams, the Bills and Chiefs are very comparable despite some angst over Tyler Bass. KC’s Harrison Butker has hit 18-20 FG attempts for a robust 90% success rate. But wait. Tyler Bass of the Bills? He’s hit 18-21! Even better, both of Butker’s misses have been from 50 yards or more, while Bass is 2-4 from 50 out or more. The glaring difference though, is Bass has missed 3 PAT kicks to one for Butker.
Punting? Most of you by now are aware Matt Araiza, the Bills former draft pick who missed a year after finally being cleared of sexual assault charges, now punts for KC. He’s averaging 50.5 yards and a 46.3 net, with 11 punts inside the 20. No blocks. Bills punter Sam Martin averages 48.1 and 44.5 net, but also has 16 punts inside the opponents 20. Also none blocked.
So how can the Chiefs be 9-0, yet minus 4 in giveaway/takeaway and Mahomes just 12 TD passes with 9 INTs?
They chew up lots of clock on long drives, and then smother you on defense. Mahomes still moves well and makes plays when it matters. Andy Reid is a great coach. I’d say the fact they’re 9-0 and still not producing a ton of points (24.3 ppg) is kinda scary. They still have Mahomes, and Travis Kelce manages to find time to be effective on the football field.
What a matchup though at QB. Allen and Mahomes, who by the way are great friends in the off season, have had some epic battles. Mahomes has 4 wins and Allen 3, but the Allen wins have all come during the regular season, with all 3 at Arrowhead Stadium. Their stats are extremely close, with Allen throwing 16 TD’s and running for 4 more, for 20 TD’s with only 4 INTs. Mahomes has 15 passing TD’s and a rushing TD for 16 total with 5 INTs. Both have lost one fumble.
So we know what’s at stake. Possible home field come playoff time, because there’s a very likely chance they’ll meet again. I know it’s just regular season talking, but Allen is :13 away from winning four straight games at Arrowhead. Nobody else has done that, including Joe Burrow. On the other hand, Mahomes is 2-0 at Highmark Stadium, including last year’s disappointing 20-17 AFC Divisional game. The Chiefs went on to win another SB.
Luckily, the weather should be ideal for this time of the year, with temps in the 50’s and no rain expected.
I hate making predictions, but I think that even despite the injuries. the Bills put the first blemish on KC’s ledger.
Bills win 27-24.
Editor’s babble: Let it be so!!! Many thanks to Ed Kilgore for his contributions to our blog. You can also find Ed on Xwitter @Kilgore2Ed.
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Great analysis Kim. However, the Chiefs are now without All-Pro kicker Harrison Butker (IR). Vegas has spread Bills-2.5. I think you’re right on the score, but, wrong team. Go Chiefs