Sunday, November 10th at 1 p.m. ET.
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.
Weather: Dome (one of three on the schedule; not counting the Super Bowl in New Orleans…).
Latest line: Bills-4, over/under 46.5.
Before getting into Sunday’s matchup, us boomers would like to remind the ensuing generations that we used to be division rivals. The Bills and Colts have met 72 times, with Buffalo leading the series 38-33-1. The regular season meetings have gone poorly recently: 5-37 in 2018 in Indy, and 15-41 at home in 2021. The will to payback was more obvious vs the Jaguars, but it seems to be a theme in general with the AFC South. Can the Bills win five in a row and take that momentum into the showdown with the Chiefs next week?
The Breakdown:
QB:
Past the halfway point of the season, it’s clear that other QBs will put up gaudier numbers than Josh Allen this season, but the maturity in #17s game has been a joy to behold. Wise people know the difference between Most Valuable and Most Spectacular. Joe Flacco can still throw the ball down field, but he wasn’t agile in his prime. And that was years ago, Big advantage Bills. Looking forward to the upcoming stretch of Mahomes, Purdy, Goff, and Stafford.
Run game weapons:
I was in the stands 11/21/21 when Jonathan Taylor ran wild on the Bills. Great player but running back years are shorter than dog years. It’s reasonable to suggest that current James Cook is on the same tier as Taylor. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson easily bridge any space between the two. Even.
Passing game weapons:
Michael Pittman and Keon Coleman are out. Anyone who has been on the WR train in the past few years and read any of Dean Kindig’s work is very familiar with Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. They are not #1s, but both are excellent in their roles. If you ask me to name a Colts TE I would still answer John Mackey… and he retired in 1972. I have the feeling that Amari Cooper will play but as sparingly as possible. That leaves Shakir, Kincaid, Hollins, Knox, the RBs (more Ray Davis in the passing game please), and maybe we get to meet Jalen Virgil. It’s still good enough. Advantage Bills.
Offensive line:
The Colts still have a good OL, but they are no longer an elite unit. They run block well, but if Flacco needs to throw they will be severely tested. Buffalo has only allowed 11 sacks in 9 games, which in this era is borderline historic. ‘Schnow’ and the boys had a good time at WWEs Friday Night Smackdown in Buffalo, getting loads of screen time seated behind the announcing crew. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
The difference in rushing attempts against is significant, with the Bills middle of the table, while only the Panthers have faced more rushing attempts than the Colts. TDs allowed are close at 6 Bills, 7 Colts. Indy has allowed fewer 20+ runs, and fewer yards per carry. Slight advantage Colts.
Pass Defense:
On one hand, the Colts have held 5/9 opponents to 20 points or less. On the other, Lawrence, Stroud, and Darnold have torched them recently. Add the huge difference in QB mobility and it looks like the Colts game plan will be run heavy. In the absence of Pittman, Taron Johnson vs Josh Downs is the spotlight matchup. Big advantage Bills.
Special teams:
The first question every week is becoming whether to factor in the punting game at all. Maybe more than one punt this week, but the over/under ought to be between 2 and 3. The return game in Domes is far less significant. Is it an overstatement to say that Tyler Bass’ 61 yard, game winning FG was a top five story to date in the Bills season? Slight advantage Bills.
Coaching:
Shane Steichen is a former Offensive Coordinator, so the lack of a QB makes him tough to evaluate. He is keeping the Colts close every week. Sean McDermott is a very good coach, but even he knows the only path from where he has plateaued goes through the Super Bowl. Advantage Bills.
The Forecast:
Remember that midseason stretch last year? In that context, a road game in Indy against a grizzled veteran backup QB with a Super Bowl ring might have been a toss up. But the 2024 Bills are a much different team mentally.
Bills 30 Colts 17.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
I found another city that has a soft spot for Fried Bologna Sandwiches! It’s my enduring food memory from Rich Stadium in the mid 80s!
Beer:
The timing was excellent. Genesee has just released 12 Horse Ale, one of their old favorites as a seasonal. My first sip brought me back to the Joe Ferguson era.
Music:
Horse themed block this week:
- Pony Boy: The Allman Brothers.
- A Horse With No Name: America.
- The Race Is On: George Jones/Dave Edmunds/Grateful Dead…listener’s choice.
- Beer For My Horses: Toby Keith and Willie Nelson.
No letdowns! Go Bills!
Editor’s babble: Let’s go!!! Many thanks to Joe Reagan for improving our palates and contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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