Fedora Forecast: Dolphins at Bills

Sunday, November 3rd, 1 p.m. ET.
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York.
Weather: 55, peeks of sunshine occasionally.
Latest line: Bills-6, over/under 49.5.

The Buffalo Bills welcome Tua Tagovailoa back to WNY and some unpleasant memories. The 6 point spread looks a little low based on the history and the records and the eye test and the injury report. I am trying to figure out the logic behind the Miami money, or is it all based on desperation? The high over/under makes a lot of sense. I think Tyreek and company can score some points, but will they be able to drop the 30+ needed?

The Breakdown:

QB:

Even at his peak, Tua does not compare in any way to Josh Allen. Few QBs do. Is Tua healthy enough to play at his highest level? I hope you saw Josh’s Halloween Costume…the Ringmaster is ready to put a show this week. Advantage Bills.

Run game weapons:

Both Achane and Mostert are healthy, not an everyday occurrence. Both are capable of breaking a long run, which we have seen too many times. Individually James Cook will be the best back on the field. Calling it even.

Passing game weapons:

On investment alone, it’s tough to match Hill, Waddle, and Beckham. If Amari Cooper were 100% this week, the Bills might well be one of the few teams that are in the discussion. I will keep trying to speak the 10 catch 100-yard, Dalton Kincaid game into existence. Slight advantage Dolphins.

Offensive Line:

Dion Dawkins suggested this week that the Bills have the best Offensive Line in the NFL. I might offer the Lions in response to Schnow, but politely. Miami has the OL reflective of their record. Big advantage Bills.

Run defense:

The further we get into the season, the more reliable the team defense stats become as a predictor of future outcomes. The Bills are 15th, the Dolphins are 16th in rushing yards per game allowed. But with Terrel Bernard on the field, and some of the Dolphins best defenders NOT on the field, Buffalo gets the advantage.

Pass Defense:

The losses of Jaelin Phillips and Bradley Chubb are as significant as the time Tua missed to the Dolphins current plight. On the Bills side, Von Miller is chomping at the bit and Rousseau and Epenesa are playing their best football. Jalen Ramsey and Jordan Poyer will try to cover up for Javon Holland’s absence. The most fun matchup of the game should be the Bills corners vs the Dolphins WRs. Slight advantage Bills.

Special teams:

Tyler Bass is quietly righting the ship, and maybe has the Lake Erie advantage over Jason Sanders. The Seahawks game was a major improvement in this area, earning them a draw in comparison with Miami’s ST.

Coaching:

Let me know when an AFC East Coach has a winning record against Sean McDermott. Advantage Bills.

Intangibles:

It’s early, but one line of thought is Miami needs the game more. I think this Bills team is wired to run the table at home.

The Forecast:

Our local pundits were guarded last week but are beginning to see the light. This is two teams heading in very different directions.

Bills 34 Dolphins 20

The Pregame Plan:

Food:

Inspired by the many offerings of one of our new Chicken Franchises, why not a Cuban Chicken Sandwich? They had a cordon blue, it’s a short leap.

Beer:

Time to mix in a hazy IPA, and Southern Tier has an excellent new one called Citra Fog. I had one while greeting trick-or-treaters and it was delicious.

Music:

From Jimmy Buffett’s 1994 Album “Fruitcakes”:

1. Everybody’s Got A Cousin In Miami.
2. Vampires, Mummies, and the Holy Ghost…a Halloween leftover.
3. Sunny Afternoon…a cover of the Kinks.
4. Fruitcakes….plenty seen every football Sunday in OP.

November is for stacking Ws.

Editor’s babble: I love the way Joe thinks :) Many thanks to Joe for his terrific contributions to our blog and beer experience. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.