Bills’ Transition Leaves Allen in Funk

All the slings and arrows aimed at Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane are understandable, and in many cases deserved in the aftermath of a crushing 23-20 loss at Houston that drops the Bills to 3-2 after a fools gold 3-0 start.

Bills players and coaches should avoid looking at social media anytime soon. You’d think the Bills were 0-5, but you have to love the fans’ passion.

If anybody has really paid attention to the Bills current situation, this shouldn’t be that surprising. Paying Josh Allen obviously hinders Beane’s job of trying to keep the roster competitive until some cap relief hits in 2025. The roster will look a lot different a year from now, but Bills fans want to win NOW. No excuses.

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Back to the Bills current situation. As of this writing, we don’t know if Allen might still be feeling the effects of a dangerous hit in Houston that looked suspiciously like concussion territory. Allen banged his head hard on the turf field and shuddered momentarily. Some have said that was getting the wind knocked out of him, but he did reenter the game after missing one play. Was a quick jolt of smelling salts enough? Or necessary?

We know Allen. He’s as tough as it gets, and hasn’t missed a start in several seasons, despite his physical style of play. He’s not hurdling people now, but the hits keep coming because defenses want to knock QBs out. A couple years ago Allen left the field after a big hit from the Patriots, and concussion protocol went into immediate effect. I have a very good source telling me Allen had to be physically restrained in the training room from going back out on the field. If he’s awake, he wants to play, and that’s why he remains the unquestioned leader of this team no matter what’s happening on the field.

Clearly Allen is not the same QB we saw in 3 wins starting the season. He’s pressing imo, trying to live up to MVP chatter and speculation he’s not so great without one Stefon Diggs. He’ll never admit it, but it’s my sense he’s again reverting back to trying to do too much. He misses #14.

By default, it’s true at this moment. Losing Diggs and Gabe Davis is a much bigger challenge than the Bills expected, or at least hoped. Take away obvious #1 WR Khalil Shakir, and it’s ugly. Allen was 9-30 against the Texans, which is astonishing. We can’t lay it all on pass protection or the fact the current crop of receivers can’t get open. Allen is thinking big plays again, and sometimes passing up short gains for downfield hopes.

Hopefully Allen will be good to go for what is now a huge game against the Jets next Monday Night at Met Life Stadium. Despite dropping two straight, the Bills still lead the AFC East at 3-2, with the Jets and Dolphins 2-3 and Pats 1-4. Right now the Bills are early 2 1/2 point favorites, partly because Aaron Rodgers hasn’t given them the point production they expected to compliment a strong D. [ed. note: and now Robert Saleh was fired]

For a third straight week, the Bills play on the road against a tough opponent in a hostile stadium.

Just a couple weeks ago, this Jets game didn’t worry me, even though it’s now obvious the Bills decision to move on without Diggs isn’t working out worth a flip. It’s hard to imagine the Bills receiving corps is so substandard due to the absence of a former 5th round draft pick. Clearly without Khalil Shakir, Allen has no options he totally trusts. Stats alone make it obvious: In five games, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes- Scantling have caught 26 balls out of 55 targets. Less than 50%!!! Unacceptable. Shakir, in four games, has 18 receptions on 19 targets. We don’t know yet if a sprained ankle will keep him out against the Jets, but it’s a possibility.

Right this moment, I repeat, Allen misses Diggs and Gabe Davis a lot more than most of us thought possible. That doesn’t mean – at ALL – the Bills regret either move, but it’s a big adjustment.

How much of this is Allen’s fault? A lot actually. He overthrew Hollins and later TE Dalton Kincaid on a couple deep balls, but Houston’s defensive plan worked extremely well. Because their DB’s were able to blanket the Bills receivers in man to man matchups, they could afford to blitz Allen with an extra attacker, and it worked. Bills receivers and running backs failed to recognize these blitzes before they came. Even with the Bills running the ball fairly well, Allen was under heavy pressure most the time.

Allen still wears protection on his left hand, and in post game comments we learned Allen also twisted an ankle on the big hit. The Bills say only that Allen was cleared to play. Ok.

Could the Bills have used Diggs in this game? Absolutely!! But he’s gone for several good reasons, and the Bills paid out just over $30 million to NOT have him on their roster. Laughable that some Texans players called this a “revenge” game for Diggs. Revenge? You had your best seasons with Allen as your QB, and Buffalo embraced you. You made it abundantly clear you wanted OUT. We should have seen this coming when McDermott, in a rare moment of candor, admitted he was “very concerned” Diggs had disappeared at Bills workouts before last season even started. Suddenly however, Diggs was “found”, and McDermott claimed he’d excused Diggs.

Which is it?

So the plan to draft a WR early in the draft is still a work in progress with Coleman, who has shown big play potential, but has a lot to learn about working with Allen. On one blitz Allen had to unload it quickly on a slant pattern, and the ball hit Coleman in the head! Clang!

Although McDermott deserves credit for blaming himself on the clock management at the end of regulation, nobody remembers he made a gutsy call late 3Q by going for it on 4th and 5 at midfield down 20-10. Allen hit Coleman in the flat for the first down, but Coleman made a terrific spin move and turned a short gain into a 49 yard TD. Suddenly it’s a ball game at 20-17. Coleman had 9 catches on 16 targets. His 19.4 yard average is easily the Bills best number.

He came with a lot of hype, but eventually he may live up to it.

After that? Where is Curtis Samuel? The Bills signed the former Washington receiver to a 3-year, $24 million contract in hopes he could fill the spot left by the departing Gabe Davis. It’s still early, but as of now Samuel has 9 catches on 13 targets for a whopping 48 yards. That’s 5.3 yards per catch.

So without Shakir, the rest of the receivers have done little to help Allen. So what about TE Dalton Kincaid, and throw in TE Dawson Knox. Kincaid has 15 catches on 24 targets for 166 yards. One TD. Knox? Three catches for 30 yards. That’s it. RB’s James Cook and Ty Johnson have helped – Cook has 2 TD catches and Johnson 1 – but the production from the WR’s has to improve.

Can, or will, Beane stick to his plan to value draft picks in leu of going after an established veteran via trade? He may soon have to do that, especially if Shakir is out for any length of time.

Fans and media too are quick to castigate McDermott and OC Joe Brady, IMO, although some of it is deserved. But Brady is working with a limited playbook when his WR’s can’t separate. He can’t – and shouldn’t – rely on Allen to carry the entire load. I think McDermott is covering for both Allen and Brady by taking the hit for the final Bills series. Brady called the plays, feeling the Bills needed a first down. But Allen seemed intent on actually trying to get downfield instead of taking a couple underneath people. Why throw at all? A safety or worse comes into play. It’s Brady’s fault? Players have to make plays.

Defensively, injuries are a factor, not an excuse, and the suspension of Von Miller for four games was unexpected. I’m not about to preach about whether or not the Bills should welcome him back, but it is refreshing to see the NFL – in general – come down harder on off field misbehavior.

Hopefully the Bills D has some people back soon. Nickel back Taron Johnson is close to returning, but we still don’t know about Ed Oliver or Taylor Rapp for next week.

Despite the huge amount of negativity coming from many Bills fans and local and national media, owner Terry Pegula is not about to blow things up now. Allen is still just 28, and Beane and McDermott working in harmony have had the NFL’s best record and best point differential over the past four seasons. Obviously, the playoff losses are what people remember. Understandable.

I truly believe McDermott is under appreciated by many fans and media. Talk show host Colin Cowherd has even called for McDermott to be fired. Ridiculous. McDermott, organizationally, has created a close knit team that plays hard and smart for the most part. He’s made some mistakes, but his overall body of work in his first HC job has to be considered a success. It’s a solid roster now in transition, and Pegula learned the hard way with the Sabres that changing coaches and GMs often ensures mediocrity.

For now, the Bills have to ignore the outside noise and focus on themselves. I expect that to happen.

There are still a dozen games to go, and luckily the AFC East should remain in reach for the Bills unless they lose Allen to injury. That’s a concern, and a legitimate concern. How ironic is it that Allen has yet to throw an interception, while Pat Mahomes already has five.

The window is still very much open, but there can be no panic now. No “quick fix” moves.

On a positive note, the Bills may have a gem in DL DeWayne Carter, their third round pick from Duke. He was given an opportunity with Ed Oliver out, and made plays. On Houston’s first play Carter sniffed out a screen pass and wiped out a RB for a three yard loss. He had a couple other tackles for loss and was a presence. He’s very quick and athletic for a guy 6-3, 305. Rookie Javon Solomon made his presence felt too.

LB Dorian Williams is blossoming before our very eyes, leading the Bills with TEN solo tackles against the Texans. He was a 3rd pick from Tulane in 2023. Great to have LB Terrel Benard back too. He made a sparkling INT that helped give the Bills a chance. Should I mention the pass was intended for Diggs?

Rookie Cole Bishop at safety with starter Taylor Rapp out, had some ups and downs. An early 67 yard TD bomb from CJ Stroud to WR Nico Collins was a case of Bishop looking in the backfield as Collins blew by him and CB Rasul Douglas.

But hey. Tyler Bass was 2-2 in FGs and 2-2 with PATs.

Wanted to end on a positive note.

Editor’s babble: We are thankful for Ed Kilgore’s contributions to our blog. You can also find Ed on Xwitter @Kilgore2Ed.