Monday, September 23, 7:30 p.m. ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: Low 60s, occasional showers
Latest line: Bills-5, over/under 45.5
The once loveable Jacksonville Jaguars started being a thorn in the Bills side in London, October 25, 2015. The immortal Blake Bortles topped the Bills 34-31, with a game winning 31 yard pass to the equally immortal Allen Hurns. Losing 10-3 in 2018 and 9-6 in 2021 were a pair of long, painful afternoons. Even the bandwagon jumpers remember last year’s 25-20 loss, and Milano’s broken leg. Of teams that live in BillsMafia’s head, the Chiefs occupy slot one, but the Jaguars belong in the top 5. The good news is the Bills do much better at home in this rivalry, winning the last three. Can Buffalo stretch that to four?
QB:
The anomaly of Josh Allen’s numbers vs Miami and a 31-10 win is drastic. Added to the context of last year’s Dallas game, the question is when or if other teams will adjust to stop the Bills running game? Good either way for Josh, but we wouldn’t mind if the passing game exploded this week. I have great respect for Trevor Lawrence, but the Jaguars are wasting his talent behind an inferior offensive line. Advantage Bills.
Running game weapons:
Travis Etienne was widely discussed by Bills ‘draftniks’ in the 2021 NFL Draft, but the Bills stood pat and took Gregory Rousseau five picks later, and drafted James Cook one year and one round later. That worked out well. It might be close between the two right now, but Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, and Josh Allen give the Bills a big edge. Advantage Bills.
Passing game weapons:
I like the Jaguars receiving corps if Lawrence has time to throw. We may never know what the price would have been, but I wanted the Bills to trade up to draft Brian Thomas Jr. He has to be a big part of the Jaguars game plans going forward. Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk are solid role players. As for the Bills? Not only was most hidden in the preseason, it remains a mystery at 2-0. Shakir will be consistent, and Cook will get his dump offs, but who eats when is tbd. Call it even.
Offensive Line:
Dion Dawkins has taken his game to another level. The Bills have a top five line in the NFL, and the change at Center has improved their run blocking. The Jaguars OL is bottom five through two weeks, and have a tall task Monday night against Rousseau, Oliver, Von, and 73,000 BillsMafia with all afternoon to tailgate. Advantage BIlls.
Run Defense:
The numbers from 2023 and 2 weeks suggest the Jaguars are slightly above average in this category, maybe a few slots ahead of the Bills. The front seven features some real studs with Josh HINES-Allen, Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd. Meanwhile, the mid level of the Bills D is three next men up. Advantage Jaguars.
Pass Defense:
Good news for Fantasy Football owners of Bills; the Jaguars are bottom five unit here. The Bills have the deepest group of CBs in the NFL, and darn good boundary starters in Douglas and Benford. Advantage Bills.
Special teams:
The Jaguars have rookie Cam Little at Kicker, who is off to a promising start. The ongoing saga of Tyler Bass continues, and it’s reached the point of a mid week tryout. The home field advantage allows me to call it even. Both teams feature a dangerous returner; Devin Duvernay for Jacksonville and Brandon Codrington for the Bills. Will the winds of Lake Erie make Highmark Stadium the best place in the league to witness non-touchbacks?
Coaching:
It’s early, but it looks like the best Coaching situation in the Beane/McDermott/Allen era in Buffalo. Bobby Babich and Joe Brady are killing it, and McDermott isn’t forced to micromanage. Doug Pederson might be in trouble if they can’t find fixes for the OL and defensive backfield. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
The game is not being played in London or Duval.
The Forecast: Bills 38 Jaguars 17
Bad spot for Jacksonville to right their ship, and a good spot for Buffalo to unveil its passing attack.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Oktoberfest is officially underway in Munich. Bratwurst, sauerkraut, purple cabbage, and spaetzle.
Beer:
I prefer Festbier over Marzen, and the best one I have had this year is Sierra Nevada’s Oktoberfest. Good news for some of our more remote Mafia, Sierra Nevada is available EVERYWHERE.
Music:
A block of Southern Rock for our North Florida guests:
- Flirtin’ With Disaster: Molly Hatchet
- Fire On The Mountain: Marshall Tucker
- Don’t Misunderstand Me: Rossington Collins
- Call Me The Breeze: Lynyrd Skynryd
Yes kids, there once was a difference between Southern Rock and Country Music. Go Bills!
Editor’s babble: Oktoberfest is the best time of year, IMO. Many thanks going out to Joe Reagan for his tasty contributions to our blog. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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