Thursday, September 12 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Weather: 84 degrees and muggy, scattered thunderstorms
Latest line: Bills +1.5, over/under 49
It wasn’t the smoothest win versus Arizona; the return TD rose my agita to midseason form. As expected, the Bills put up 30+ with 3/4 of the playbook tied behind their back. For us lovers of 1 p.m. ET Sunday Bills football, we now have a long wait for mid-October. Thursday Night Football week 2 isn’t favorable to any team scheduled, but the long recovery period afterwards could be a boon. Who wins tonight?
QB:
MVP, MVP….Josh willed the Bills to the comeback win over the Cardinals. Let’s hope he learned his lesson with the injury scare; but he did what was needed to win the game. I wanted 10 less rushing TDs and 10 more passing TDs for #17 this season; quite the opposite week one. Tua also engineered a comeback victory, and he’s easily a top ten fair weather QB. Advantage Bills.
Running game weapons:
Healthy, this would have been a good debate. Without Mostert, and with Achane hobbled a bit, the Dolphins game plan might have to be adjusted. Enter Jaylen Wright, a 4th round pick from the Tennessee Vols. His 40 time was 4.38, so maybe not. James Cook ate far more than most of the Bills offense last week. The results were solid but not spectacular, and I wouldn’t recommend subjecting him to the punishment from 300+ carries in the regular season. A little more passing, a little more Ray Davis, and 230-240 carries is preferred. Advantage Bills due to health.
Passing Game Weapons:
At the moment, Hill and Waddle are likely the best WR tandem in the NFL. It’s thin after that, but it’s largely irrelevant when both are healthy. I hope the Bills target share makes more sense to me this week. I warn against taking Bills in Fantasy, but a couple of beers in during our 16 team draft, Kincaid was still available in the late 4th round and I couldn’t help myself. Advantage Dolphins.
Offensive Line:
The Dolphins need Tua to get the ball out quickly or it gets ugly. Deficiencies in the IOL suggest that the Bills IDL will have an equally quiet night as the Dolphins won’t test the middle. The Bills OL was highly effective week one. Advantage Bills.
Run Defense:
The Dolphins have regressed with the departure of Christian Wilkins. They were borderline top 10 last year in rushing yards allowed, and more likely middle of the pack this year. It was a good test last week for the Bills defense to account for James Connor and the running of Kyler Murray. Easier assignment this week. Slight advantage Bills.
Pass Defense:
Both teams have excellent CBs. In a snapshot of the moment, you have to go with Poyer and Holland over Rapp and Hamlin. It would be nice to see Cole Bishop change that comparison by December. Advantage Dolphins.
Special Teams:
I will call Bass and Sanders even, and the punters likely irrelevant, but I fully acknowledge the Bills place in history as the first team to allow a dynamic kickoff TD return. Prayers for Coach Smiley. Advantage Dolphins.
Coaching:
Until one of these two win an AFC Championship, I am inclined to rate them even. Both have flaws, both are top 10. Even
Intangibles:
Josh Allen is 10-2 all time vs Miami. Tyreek Hill has been distracted.
The Forecast:
It’s a close call. I think the Dolphins had a better team last year than they do in 2024. . But at home, the Dolphins are still a very difficult opponent. I hope both teams air it out, then Buffalo closes it out with the running game in the 4th quarter. Bills 31 Dolphins 27
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Great weather for grilling in WNY! We just passed the 1st annual “Jimmy Buffett Day”, so Cheeseburgers in his honor. Off to Wegman’s for some Heinz 57!
Beer:
Tied in with one of my song selections is Buffalo’s Resurgent Brewing’s Green Heart Hazy IPA.
Music:
Some Buffett tunes with a Josh Allen Twist:
- Great Heart: It describes our QB and ties into tonight’s beer
- Nobody from Nowhere: Firebaugh!
- Defying Gravity: his signature hurdle…
- Miss you so Badly: that one is for Poyer
Bills Mafia will have to set it’s weekly rhythm some other way. Go Bills!
Editor’s babble: We are grateful for Joe Reagan’s Fedora Forecasts. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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