Sunday, September 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Latest line: Bills-6, over/under 48
It seems like forever since an injury depleted Buffalo Bills team fell a field goal short of stopping the Chiefs dynasty. The weight of expectations made last season far less pleasant than it should have been for the fanbase. Are we headed for what some euphemistically call a “transition year”? Maybe, but I don’t plan to enter the 2024-25 season anxious and negative. Four straight AFC East titles, the Miami home game, the Dallas road game, and #17 account for my faith. One game at a time, and the Bills open at home with the first of three revenge games out of the gate. Hail Murray. Heatgate. The awful London trip. Some payback is in order! Let’s break it down:
QB:
Kyle Brandt and I among others are calling our MVP shot with Josh Allen. Some of the roster turnover was age, some of the roster turnover was cap related, but make no mistake: the time had come to install Josh as the undisputed leader of the Buffalo Bills. It’s pretty much the norm for Hall of Fame QBs with a Super Bowl rings, which is the dream. Allen is healthy entering the season. Kyler Murray made the Cardinals competitive in his return from injury late last season. His preseason in bubble wrap ought to work in the Bills favor. As dangerous as Murray’s legs can be, the Bills may match up better than most with fast, sure tackling LBs. Advantage Bills.
Running Weapons:
Arizona has a solid running game, especially with Kyler Murray’s threat to take off. James Connor is getting up there in mileage, but that shouldn’t be a factor week one. A lot of factors point to this being the most balanced Bills offense in the Allen era, and the most effective rushing attack. Cook is hitting his prime. Ray Davis is a better complementary back than Harris or Moss were in this offense. 12 personnel will be frequently deployed. McGovern is a better run blocker than Morse. Mack Hollins is the most impressive blocking WR I’ve seen at St. John Fisher. The glass half empty crowd hasn’t noticed this apparently. Advantage Bills.
Passing Weapons:
Two of the best young TEs square off Sunday, and I expect big games from Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid. All of us Bills Mafia/Syracuse Orange fans have a soft spot for Marvin Harrison Jr. By the time we face him again, the sky is the limit. Hopefully there is a small learning curve for the rookie. As for the Bills; in Shakir we trust. Beyond Khalil and Kincaid, the Bills passing attack is a well kept secret going into the opener. Even.
Offensive Line:
The Cardinals have some pieces, most notably LT Paris Johnson and RG Will Hernandez. Even the pessimists will have a hard time finding fault with the Bills Offensive Line. They may not feature a Pro Bowler, but top to bottom and in terms of continuity, the Bills have a top five OL in my opinion. The last time I could say that with a straight face was the Super Bowl years. Advantage Bills.
Run defense:
All the anxiety from a segment of pundits and fans this week had to do with Arizona’s offense. The Cardinals ranked dead last against the run last year. It would be amusing if the Bills could pound the ball all day and keep the offense hidden until the Dolphins game next Thursday. With DaQuan Jones in the lineup, Buffalo has a very good run defense. Advantage Bills.
Pass Defense:
Not 32nd in passing TDs allowed, the Cardinals ascended to 30th in that category. Does anyone remember that the top four in that category last year were Houston, Buffalo and Baltimore tied, and KC? Buffalo is loaded at CB, but replacing Poyer and Hyde is a challenge. It’s more relevant next Thursday. Advantage Bills.
Special teams:
If Arizona had any signs of being above average, I might give them the nod. I am more anxious about the Bills Special Teams than I am about the WRs, Will LB, or Safeties. Between the new kick off rules and Bass struggling with the yips, no advantage.
Coaching:
How many straight years did Andy Reid weather the criticism? My prayer is that Sean McDermott silences his critics while at his FIRST head coaching post. The new Cardinals Coach Jonathan Gannon has something in common with McDermott as a former DC. I wish him well after this week. Advantage Bills.
Intangibles:
Traveling several time zones east for a 1 p.m. ET game is a disadvantage for the Cardinals. I’m not sure I have a frame of reference going from 109 dry degrees to 57 damp degrees to play a game, but it bears watching. Opening day and a flyover will have Highmark in a frenzy. And hopefully, win or lose, we get an in person from Jessica Pegula.
The Forecast:
Bills 31 Cardinals 17 I know there is a lot of airtime to fill, but the “what if we lose to Arizona?” takes were silly this week.
The Pregame Plan:
Food:
Arizona is a rare visitor. Introducing the Sonoran Hot Dog: a bacon wrapped hot dog topped with pinto beans, onions, tomatoes, jalapenos, and whatever Mexican influenced condiment you like on top. They will be available at the Miller Lite Brew Pub at Highmark, and I will be in line.
Beer:
I don’t like that Oktoberfest beers come out before football starts and are aging on the shelves come October 1st. But we will save that for the Dolphins game. The Zubaz cans of Blue Light are already on ice!
Music:
An Arizona themed tailgate block:
- Take It Easy: Eagles
- Ocean Front Property: George Strait
- Keep on Rockin Me Baby: Steve Miller
- Get Back: The Beatles
The long wait is over Bills Mafia. Have a great season!
Editor’s babble: We are happy and grateful to have Joe Reagan providing his weekly “Fedora Forecast” this season. You can also find Joe on Xwitter @joer869.
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