Astro’s Bills Mock Draft – October Edition

Photo of Colorado WR Laviska Shenault from

My prescription is: take these once a month, whether you think you need to or not. It’ll keeps you regular. You’ll understand when you’re 70.

I use FanSpeak Premium so trades can happen. It’s worth the cost. You’d spend the same thing for a venti pumpkin spice macchiato, no whip.

[Watch This]
The Bills have visited Colorado more than once already, one game on 11/5, then 2 scouts the following week. If my sources are accurate, they also spent some time with coaches. I’ve spoken about Shenault in the past, and called him Sammy Watkins with more strength and aggression. The Draft Network calls him “big, strong, fast, and surly”. As PFF’s highest-graded WR (91.9), Shenault led the PAC-12 in receptions and receiving yards per game as a true sophomore, and accomplished that in only nine games. What’s the argument against Shenault? Against AP-ranked teams in 2018, Henry Ruggs (18.8 ypc), Ceedee Lamb (17.4), and Tee Higgins (15.2) all did better than Shenault (8.7). Shenault’s YAC might have been against poorer tackling, too. So, what if you’re happy with the Bills’ starting trio of Brown, Beasley, and D’haquille? OLB Isaiah Simmons is a tempting RD1 pick as the third Pro-Bowl-caliber LB for this defense (no, it’s not Vosean Joseph). He’s alternatively described as a Safety with OLB size and diagnostic ability, or an OLB with a Safety’s speed and aggression. He’s a locker-room favorite with work ethic up the wazoo. Simmons is on my personal positional charts as the top OLB and Safety. McDermott can have his own Shaq Thompson again.

Photo of Oklahoma OLB Kenneth Murray from

[Watch This–#9]
The “Paddy Fisher vs Kenneth Murray Debate” will be epic on Bills chat this draft season. Northwestern’s Paddy Fisher is taller, has OLB/ILB Versatility, 4.6 speed, and always attends to his assignment. He has above-average smarts, which you need with this defense. He’s been described as “the next Luke Kuechly”, who was a McDermott protege. On the other hand, Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray, a OLB/ILB, has a wonderful backstory you’ll want to read. He has three adopted siblings, each of them with special needs. Murray’s the son of a minister. He’s patient, determined, polite, compassionate, and has amazing work ethic. The Big12 Freshman DPOY was named Team Captain as a sophomore, the Oklahoma defense’s second-ever soph captain, along with Gerald McCoy. You can find him either in the weight room or the film room. Or lifting weights in the film room. It showed last year as he broke the school record for tackles in a game (28) vs Army. He’s a primo run defender. Bills scouts haven’t been to Murray’s or Fisher’s games yet.

Photo of Oregon RT Calvin Throckmorton from

[Watch This–RT #54]
The Bills have been to two Oregon games, 10/5 and 10/11. I’d expect Beane to address the need sooner than RD3 of the draft; perhaps this is still a free-agency priority. If the Bills do nothing, your backup RT may be the injured De’Ondre Wesley, the injured LaAdrian Waddle, or practice squadder Erik Magnuson. Nsehke is 33. Conor McDermott is gone (good move; he hadn’t improved in game strength or technique to contend with bull-rushes or quick moves inside). The need is increased if you consider Ford a Guard.

Photo of NC State DL Larrell Murchison from

TRADE! Minnesota Vikings send Round 4 Pick 19 to the Bills
in exchange for Round 4 Pick 27 and Round 5 Pick 13.

[Watch This]
Neville Gallimore of Oklahoma is a good debate, too, with Murchison getting the Bills’ nod here due to his Tackles For Loss Per Game this season, which is still greater than 1.0. McBeane wants pressure, and that’s Murchison, whose TFLPG is higher than Ed Oliver’s and Darrell Johnson’s (both were high in TFLPG and both got visits). In five games in 2019, Murchison has 21 tackles, including 6.5 tackles for loss and five sacks, leading the Wolfpack in those stats. A draft won’t go by without this front office taking a defensive lineman. My other suggestion is LB Markus Bailey of Purdue. He does his job, he’s instinctive, works off blocks well, and has the intrinsic reflection that helps you get better every day. He’s tied for most games played at the position. I consider him a better all-round player than Maurice Alexander, Julian Stanford, Corey Thompson, or Vosean Joseph.

Texas Longhorns wide receiver Collin Johnson (9) points after catching a pass for a first down during The Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl between against Missouri at NRG Stadium on Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2017, in Houston. (Elizabeth Conley / Houston Chronicle).

[Watch This]
Bills have been making stops at colleges with tall receivers with attitude and toughness. Shenault and Collin Johnson give the WR room some added height with some sass and introspection, which he narrates on his own YouTube channel. “Call-In Johnson” would fit right in with the locker room. Maybe. Safety J.R. Reed is a great add here if you like the WR room already (or if we signed another #1). J.R. Reed’s father is Jake Reed, a WR with 12 years’ service with the Vikings and Saints, not to mention 450 receptions, 6,999 yards, and 36 TDs. His uncle is Dale Carter, a 1992 RD1#20 draft pick by the Chiefs and a four-time Pro Bowl selection who played 14 seasons. That’s DNA for you. The other guy that’s a fit here is Oregon’s OG Shane Lemieux. Per PFF, he’s their 6th-ranked offensive G (80.5), and that rank was drafted #114 last year. Daboll likes to do lots of pin-and-pull schemes, and Lemieux can do it. Bills have been to Oregon twice.

Photo of Syracuse ED Kendall Coleman from

[Watch This]
All you have to do is drive down the Thomas E Dewey Thruway for the player who had the FBS-most sacks of all returning rushers. (Why is he still on the board???) Voted Team Captain, his relentlesss work ethic has been lauded by Head Coach Dino Babers and Executive Director of the Senior Bowl Jim Nagy. Coleman is part of an edge duo which I’d rate among the top 4 bookends in the country, along with Notre Dame (Okwara-Kareem-Hayes), Ohio State (Young-Cooper), and Auburn (Coe-Davidson). Sorry, Tide, Wolverines, and Gators…

Photo of Ohio State S Jordan Fuller from

6-2 204
[Watch This]
Entering this season, Fuller had a resume of 31 games in the Big Ten, with 154 tackles. Fuller has one of my DBs’ highest FIPS scores, a 66 (Forced Fumbles+ Interceptions+Passes Defensed+Solo Tackles). He’s PFF’s #4-rated Safeties, so he represents great value here. A 4th-rated Safety (last year Amani Hooker, Titans) usually goes in RD3-4.

Photo of Oregon CB Deommodore Lenoir from

[Watch This]
The Bills have a nice stable of CBs, but Tre White enters FA in 2021, Kevin Johnson’s a 1-year deal, and McBeane says you can’t have enough corners. Lenoir was still available here, but we won’t likely see his name in RD6 for too much longer. On successive weeks last season, Lenoir (6-0,196) posted these numbers: INT/5 tackles; INT/5 tackles; 2 INT/5 tackles; 9 tackles; 7 tackles; and 7 tackles.This year in September he allowed Zero Point 26 Yards per cover snap. That’s 9 inches. Perhaps you’d like to compare that to the NFL’s greatest CBs performances in the same metric!

Editor’s babble: The more I read about Laviska Shenault, the more intrigued I become about him. As always, thanks to Dean Kindig for his comprehensive contributions to our blog. You can find Dean on Twitter @TCBILLS_Astro.

2 Replies to “Astro’s Bills Mock Draft – October Edition”

  1. Two questions:
    1.) If you flipped the positions taken in the first two rounds and took Simmons (who is such a perfect fit) instead of Shenault in Round 1, what wide receiver (s) would you think would be available in Round 2, who would be worth taking?

    2.) Is Throckmorton really good enough to step into the starting lineup at RT for a Bills team that will be looking to be serious contenders and not just satisfied to make the playoffs (a jump a lot of teams fail to make)?

    Thank you for these monthly mock drafts. They really help me to focus on the players who are going to go later in the draft that could help the Bills. The real contenders in the NFL are the teams that consistently find contributors, from stars to backup role players, in the later rounds of the draft.

  2. In the mocks I trust most, Isaiah Simmons isn’t available if you switch positions, but I’d trade up for him using a player and a RD3 pick. The best fits in RD2 at WR would be Tylan Wallace (second-most receiving yards in the country in 2018 with 1,408 to Andy Isabella’s 1698). Wallace is small but his YPC vs AP-ranked teams is top 5. Brandon Aiyuk is climbing boards with an insane 20.6 yards per catch this year. DeVonta Smith is another small-guy consideration. If you want big guy WR, Chase Claypool is my favorite.