Blackjack players hoping to win 55 percent of the time know the limits of euphoria. Being able to add to 21 isn’t the only math that helps. Those who base success in reality anticipate lots of losses during wins.
Expecting to end up on top every time makes inevitable setbacks more painful and likely. Nobody can expect to dominate outright unless it’s me at NHL 94. It’s not so much me as it is Roenick; he’s good.
Trying to eke out the slightest advantage is the ultimate goal in football and life. The highest win percentages are anomalies for all but the most satanic franchises. A team like the 2019 Buffalo Bills would ideally triumph in 62.5 percent of their games, although our hearts know they’re on the verge of an undefeated championship year.
The highest hopes should still factor in imperfection. At least, they better. While I’m certain my lottery numbers are destined to be drawn, I’ll hold off on Nottingham Terrace house-shopping until it’s official.
In more practical goals, Josh Allen is already trying to shake the reputation that he grinds gears while downshifting. Everyone knows he can fire a ball like he’s mad at it. But the delicate subtlety required to complete medium-range attempts is the skill that’ll get fans in other cities buying his jersey.
Winning frequency is affected by slight variations in performance that create vastly differing consequences. Completing half one’s passes is unacceptable while connecting 65 percent of the time means doing decently. A few points constitute the difference between Sylvester and Frank Stallone.
The good news is improvement could be vast. It just took not connecting frequently as a rookie. Set standards low in order to make next year look impressive. Plus, you’ll be the biggest kid in class.
Yes, Allen completed a mere 52.8 percent of his rookie passes, note those who already confidently dismiss his career as a flaming failure. But it’s hard to aim a football while weighed down by so many asterisks. A raw trainee ended up throwing to side judges because there were so few fellow employees qualified to field passes.
Allen must’ve behaved, as he got everything requested on his birthday list. The offense received ShowBiz Pizza Place party-level upgrades. A functioning offensive line and employees who can catch are just what a growing boy needs.
Fans naturally fixate on preseason attempts out of a desire to know what’s about to happen with no way to do so. Blame time’s nature paired with our natural anticipation for reading too much into every toss.
The simple surprise based on having no way to go but forward makes watching sports fun. Still, we want everything we don’t have, including knowledge of how sporting events will unfold.
Practice runs offer precious little on which to base predictions, which is why coaching isn’t as fun as you’d think. Preseason is as limited a glimpse as music without signing up for Spotify. Those were a beautiful 30 seconds.
Judging from the most limited criteria is how we get through the day. Allen has made a total of 22 attempts this August, with that number likely to approximately double Friday. That’s not nearly enough for a worthwhile perspective. Bills fans want to believe he’s the one with a limited inventory of reasons.
Trying to plan this year’s anticipated happiness through interpreting the preseason is like buying a car based on how comfy it is locked in the trunk. But limited data has never stopped football fans from deciding what life is about to be.
Craving evidence of growth leads to caring about pretend football. There is astounding faith invested in the results of the third preseason game without checking the score. You can leave anyone asking who won off your wedding invite list.
The Bills are unique just like every other team. Each club thinks this is a special time of year for apprehension and preposterous expectations. Still, their particular circumstances create a high level of built-in apprehension.
There’s so much to prove and no proof from a summer of speculation. Sure, guesses may be informed by glimpses. But there’s only so much to learn without a season’s worth of attempts. I guess we’ll have to watch this year.
Just limit bad things that are bound to happen. As humans, football players seek perfection while knowing it’s as rare as Aaron Schobel practicing hard. The most convincing wins are still bound to feature a couple stalled drives and conceded points. Accept getting slightly ahead as a tremendous accomplishment.
The Bills don’t need to destroy every scheduled foe, although I’m of course anticipating unlimited bliss. They just have to be slightly better than teams that also have a chance at breaking through, considering they don’t play Oakland this season.
Winning football is like running a restaurant where anything above breaking even is an achievement. Hope for blowouts while remembering just a single extra point will do. Stephen Hauschka is just getting misses out of the way, right?
Editor’s babble: Don’t talk to Bills fans about missed kicks. It sets off a posttraumatic response in most of us. We’re not worried about Hauschka, right? Um, OK. Thanks, as always, to Anthony Bialy for his contributions to our blog. You can find Anthony on Twitter @AnthonyBialy.